TX-10: Poll for Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum -Live Blogging

[trillian]

Cross posted at dkos


TX-10: Blog-buzzing Poll for Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum - Ted Live Blogging Today!
::
In what has been called the second most "Red" district in Texas, Ted Ankrum making headway against Republican incumbent Michael McCaul. This is good news for Ted, but more than that it is good news for Dems across America as it reflects the polling trends in many districts. Ted has been walking the walk (well, driving in a fuel efficiency car actually) all across this sprawling district spending his limited funds in creative ways. He won the Democratic primary runoff using post cards to reach primary voters at a minimum cost (Fighting Dem Ted Ankrum's Strategic Weapon - The Post Card) and has avoided robocalls as too expensive for the return in favor of volunteers staking yard signs far and wide. Yet despite his funding handicap (spending only about $30,000 to date) and virtually no outside support, take a look at the poll results that Ted invested in -- and hit pay dirt!! This poll has indeed caused a "blog buzz" and has been featured on Burnt Orange Report, McBlogger, Texas Politics, Off the Kuff, and Swing State Project.

See what Ted and the bloggers have to say about this poll.


In Ted's own words (items in brackets added by editor):

I have been saying that TX 10 is not a lock for the Republicans, despite being what one staffer for "The Lone Star Project" called the second-most red District ( Tom Delay's old District is the reddest, and Chet Edwards is the third reddest). So I put my contributor's money where my mouth has been, and commissioned a poll by Forensic Economic Data Consulting, Inc. It was a robocall poll of 500 randomly-selected likely voters in TX 10. The statistical margin of error for this number of responders is 4.4%. Again, the experts say that a robocall poll should double the margin of error, because only the most motivated of voters will respond. This doesn't bother me, because my seat of the pants says that a huge number of voters are highly motivated this year.

I wanted this poll to be as accurate a reflection of voter sentiment as possible, so there were no "push questions". I attempted to make it as neutral as possible, so that a responder could not tell whose campaign was conducting the poll. On question 3, when a roll of the candidates was listed, the order changed for each call.

The results:

Q1. Are you a registered voter who intends to vote in the election? Only "yes" answers continued with the call.

Q2. Michael McCaul is your current Representative in Congress. What are your thoughts on his reelection?
34.7% Would you definitely vote to reelect him?
39.1% Would you consider other candidates?
26.1% Would you definitely vote to replace him?
(61% in bold)

Q3. The three Candidates for Congress are Michael McCaul, the Republican, Ted Ankrum, the Democrat, and Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian.
50.8% Would you vote for Michael McCaul, the Republican?
41.6% Would you vote for Ted Ankrum, the Democrat?
7.6% Would you vote for Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian?

Q4. In times such as these, should a Representative follow the lead of the President or follow the opinion of voters in their District? In a situation where the two do not agree:
23.2% The Representative should follow the President?
76.8% The Representative should follow the voters?

Q5. What is your opinion of President Bush' job performance on a scale of 1 to 4, where 1 means you strongly approve and 4 means you strongly disapprove?

25.7% Strongly approve
22.8% Somewhat approve
9.4% Some disapproval
42.0% Strong disapproval
(Going on 51% disapprove in a district that did not even have a Dem challenger in 2004.)

Q.6 For statistical purposes, key in your age on the telephone keypad.

You can read the full results http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=esj75xbab.0.hza75xbab.7funw4aab.570&ts=S0200&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.burntorangereport.com%2FshowDiary.do%3FdiaryId%3D1740">here.

The very significant thing about this poll is that 65.2% of the respondents will consider a different candidate, or definitely replace him.

I am under no illusions that the 42% of respondents saying they would vote for Ted Ankrum were truly voting for me. They are voting against an incumbent and against George Bush. There is no way that my campaign expenditure of some $30,000, to date, could have reached that proportion of voters. But it does say that with 65% of the voters up for a change, if I can reach them with my message of "Change the Course", this race is winnable!

I was looking for some information about the effect of the President on this race. After all, this is a District that went 60% for the President in 2004. He has a 51.4% disapproval rating, with only 23.2% stating strong approval. Combine that with the 3:1 results for the question whether Representatives should follow the voters, rather than the President, and the future does not look bright for Rep. McCaul. Rep McCaul has voted as a rubber stamp for the President on virtually every vote.

We can win this race! Please visit http://www.tedankrum.com to see more about me, volunteer, take a sign, and contribute.

Ted Ankrum

Karl-Thomas Musselman, editor of Burnt Orange Report, noted the following:

Wow. 65.2% of the respondents will consider a different candidate, or definitely replace him. Bush has a 51.4% disapproval rating, with only 23.2% stating strong approval. Combine that with the 3:1 results for "Representatives should follow the voters, rather than the President", and the future does not look bright for Rep. McCaul.
And I've got to say, Ankrum has been all over that district and as a resume that is hard to beat. I know that there hasn't been that much blog attention to the race, but as the coordinated campaign here in Travis heats up, I'm sure we'll have more info as his district overlaps most of Strama's and some of Howard's.

To someone who missed the point when looking at the 42% for Ted, blogger Boadicea answered:

Look at the calendar. With zero support from the party, Ankrum's made a huge impact in this district.
2 months to make up the ground? I call this great news for Democrats in Texas.
Battleground year, people. BATTLEGROUND.

From McBlogger:

Good news for Ankrum, Bad for McCaul in CD10.

Question 4 is the one that should stand out. More than 75% of the voters think a Congressman should be responsive to the people, not the President. McCaul (R-Clear Channel Communications) has completely ignored his Constitutional duty as a Congressman to check the power of the President and has instead worked diligently to further the President's failed policies acting, in effect, as little more than a rubber stamp for whatever the President wants.
I've been telling some of my incredulous friends here in Austin that Texas, if the Democrats seize the moment, is ready to flip in one cycle. The reason is rural voters who have been, even more miserably than urban voters, really stomped on by Republicans in Washington and Austin. What's needed is for everyone to ditch the pessimism and realize that we are on the cusp of a transformation in Texas politics.

Now is the time for bold commitment, not meekly playing the numbers and only working on 'sure things'.

From Off the Kuff:

The good news for Ankrum is that I believe he has room to grow. The key for any Democratic candidate to have a shot in this district is to boost turnout and performance in Travis County. If this is an accurate picture of voter intensity, then he's got #1 going for him. If he can get his performance there up to about 65%, he's up close to 45% overall. The flip side of that, of course, is that better turnout in Harris pushes him down. If you tweak things so that it's 47% Harris and 36% Travis, and assume the same ratios for each county, McCaul goes up by a 53-39 score. I believe there's a fair piece of SD07 in this district, and enthusiasm for Dan Patrick may well help bump up participation in Harris to McCaul's advantage. That may also have been accounted for by question 1, I can't say. In any event, turning out Travis County, and doing a little better there and among the weak Bush disapprovers is the key for Ankrum. We'll see how it goes from here, but this is an encouraging beginning.

And finally from Swing State Project:

Now, this is a robo-poll, from an outfit I've never heard of (Forensic Economic Data Consulting). But unless this poll is totally wacky, <b>this is pretty stunning</b>. I mean, this district is R+13, and Ankrum had raised all of $30,000 as of the last reporting period - 10% as much as the third-party candidate, Libertarian Michael Badnarik. I'm sure Badnarik is holding down McCaul's numbers, but still, this is an impressive showing for a third-tier Dem. And again, if this survey has any legitimacy whatsoever, it's clearly bad news for the GOP in general.

For those of you who do not know Ted, here is a brief profile and links

Ted Ankrum for U.S. Congress (TX-10)



Service: Captain, U.S. Navy; A 30-year veteran with four tours in Vietnam and a Disabled Veteran. He has been awarded the Bronze Star Medal for Valor, Navy Commendation Medal, Vietnamese Medal of Honor and Cross of Gallantry, Purple Heart; Member of Nuclear Navy Personnel selected by Adm. Rickover. Since his military career he has been an Assistant Director of NASA, and a Deputy Director of EPA. During the Clinton administration Ted was a diplomat to Australia. His sterling resume would make him an exemplary Representative in Congress.
Website

Ted, by the way, is a super environmentalist. Here is his statement on the environment (I am told Ted wrote the CAFÉ standards for vehicle emissions and he drives around his district in a fuel efficient car!):

I support the Endangered Species Act, as implemented by the Clinton Administration. I believe that wild animals have a valuable place in the World. I favor renegotiation of the Kyoto Treaty to include China as a developed nation, real limits on the Europeans, and a requirement
that > developing nations use "best-available" technology for development, rather than obsolete equipment from developed nations; and that the US should join when these terms are achieved. I favor all environmental regulations as they stand, without weakening. I favor a new "Superfund" Act, without the provisions that have caused a major part of prior funding to go to legal fees, rather than cleanup. I'll respond to other specific questions.

Send Ted an online Win in Texas 10 Donation

Fighting Dems.com

[Sopianae]

1. This is great news for us in TX-10.

Last time around we only had a write-in candidate. Now, we have a great candidate with an impressive resume. Also, the Libertarian candidate is splitting the Republican vote. Ted has been campainging tirelessly without any help from the party. Please, help him out if you can.

[Schema Thing]

2. Gotta love Ted's go-get-'em spirit, too.

[Sopianae]

3. Ted is live blogging NOW.

He was delayed a little bit but he is posting on Daily Kos right NOW.