Wow - top contested house race - (Hostettler) - barely campaigning?

[salin]

I noticed that the Hostettler-Ellsworth race (IN "Bloody" 8th district) has been moved from tossup (it was lean repub early in the eary) to lean dem by the NYT and Rothenberg. WP and CQ still have it at toss up. I have been watching the Sodrel-Hill race closely, but not so much the Hostettler race. (It is great to be a Hoosier dem right now - with the prospect of the congressional delegation shifting from 7-2 repub maj, to 5-4 dem majority)

The local paper in Evansville had this article over the weekend.


Hostettler inactivity curious
By THOMAS B. LANGHORNE
Courier & Press staff writer 464-7432 or [e-mail]
Originally published 12:00 a.m., September 3, 2006
Updated 12:45 p.m., September 3, 2006

Stuart Rothenberg has never called Rep. John Hostettler, R-Ind., a better-than-even bet to lose at the polls - until now.

snip

The equally well respected Cook Political Report rates the Hostettler-Ellsworth contest a "toss-up."

So why isn't Hostettler spending more time on the campaign trail?

The six-term congressman spent much of August flying around the country to attend field hearings of the House Judiciary Committee on illegal immigration. According to Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., he and Hostettler were the only committee members to attend every hearing.

snip

Hostettler has no plans to campaign over Labor Day weekend.

Read the article - very odd. More interesting is to read the comments by readers. I doubt that many of the readers are from outside of the Evansville area ... so what you are reading are Hoosier posters.

So what is he doing? Over confident? Disinterested?

[CrazyForKucinich]

1. Your math doesn't add up

7-2 is nine seats 4-3 is seven seats.

[salin]

4. oops will correct

was going for the one more... it would be 5-4, not 4-3. THanks.

[Bozita]

2. Do they use Diebold machines in that district?

The NYT doesn't say.

[salin]

6. Some diebold - much of indiana uses a local company "Accuvote"

had some of their own problems in the lead-up to the primary. But because of that there has been a huge amount of attention in the tv and print media per potential machine problems - which means more people are paying very close attention.

[salin]

3. In another hot Hoosier race... Babs Bush fundraises for Sodrel

Could you imagine coughing up big bucks to meet Barbara Bush?

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentinel/news/local/15426816.htm

lowest price $250... but for $1500 - can even pose for a picture with babs at an exclusive reception.

*gag*

[tanyev]

7. You'd have to pay me a lot more than that to pose with ol' Bar.

[tanyev]

5. There was an article about Rove in Sunday's Dallas paper

theorizing that he might prefer to let Dems take the House rather than keep it by a small margin. If the Dems take control in Nov, then they can go back to their favorite campaign strategy in 08--Blame the Dems.

[salin]

8. That would explain Rove... but not why Hostettler would comply

I don't know that most GOP congress reps are willing to become the sacrificial lamb to Rove's strategy. But who knows - maybe Hostettler has something lined up for himself for next February.

[salin]

9. Who is Hostettler? The guy who made breast cancer survivors cry

in his office:

(from Atrios - from the local paper that requires registration so I am sticking with the Atrios excerpt)


A group of breast cancer survivors who met with Rep. John Hostettler, R-Ind., to ask for his support of breast cancer research said all he wanted to talk about was some controversial studies that have linked breast cancer to abortions.

"He was obsessed with that," said Coral Cochran, a Terre Haute grandmother who has had two battles with breast cancer and was one of 11 women at the meeting.

"We were extremely disappointed," she said. Some of the women said they felt Hostettler was implying that they had abortions. One woman said she cried.

Hostettler said in an interview that he felt it was important for the women to know about the studies linking abortions to breast cancer. But, he said: "They didn't want to hear it."

He said he did not imply that any of those women had abortions.
http://atrios.blogspot.com/2002_08_18_atrios_archive.html

He is also the congresscritter who got stopped in the local airport, because he tried to go through the airport while packing... not packing his suitcase in public, that is packing heat at the airport. Said he forget to leave it in the car, and that he always kept it with him for safety while he was in Indiana (suggesting that he found Indiana more dangerous than DC).

What a card. :eyes"

[Hoosier Dem]

10. If you look at Hostetler's history...

This guy has never really been an active campaigner. His opponents routinely out-raise and out-campaign him. This year, there are a couple of differences that are having an impact.

1. While Indiana has historically been a deep red state, both Bush and Republican Governor ("THeir Bitch Mitch") Daniels are HUGELY unpopular. Many old-line Republicans are disgusted. Swing voters have essentialloy tuned out the Pukes.

2. This district was re-drawn after the last census to include much more of Democrat-leaning Vigo county. This didn't make much of an impact in 2004, when the Pukes were swamping Indiana. This year, it is a key factor.

3. Ellsworth is an attractive candidate. As a county sheriff, he can take the "law and order" card away from the GOP and play it himself. Cops tend to do VERY well in elections in Indiana.

All these combined look like the perfect storm here in Indiana. I think Dems will make Congressional gains here. I would say we will knock off Sodrel and Hostetler, but my home district (2nd CD) is just too close to call at this point.

[salin]

12. also hard to call Sodrel v Hill

and Monroe County's (sleeze-master) Bud Bernitt is back in action (responsible for a last minute "swift boat" series of ad attacks on Hill, which many think shifted the election to Sodrel.)

But Hill looks better and better, especially due to the unhappy political climate. Here's to hoping that the race up in your part of the state tips towards Donnolly!

[saltpoint]

11. I hope Indiana voters will turn Hostettler out of office in November,

and it would be great if Hill could dump Sodrel, too.

Word is among some county chairpersons that Donnelly is looking strong against Chocola up north. I wouldn't miss than damned Chocola one bit, would you?

Daniels is a nasty-spirited man. Very high yuck factor. I hope he's a one-termer and Indiana can get back to able, competent, and compassionate Democratic governors.

This is likely Dick Lugar's last campaign. Thank god. I hope Indiana Dems will line up Bart Peterson or Joe Hogsett (sp?) -- or other great Democrats -- to run for one of those big races next cycle.

[salin]

13. I don't think Hogsett has the profile

but Peterson has impressed the GOP business class in Indy who generally financially shape the races - and who tend to shy away from too radical republicans (that is when the GOP primary goes radical, the business folks tend to go dem). However, that is the one part of the state that is still somewhat enamoured with Mitch.

[saltpoint]

14. salin, you sound to me like you really know your stuff in Indiana

politics.

I remember some time ago on my travels, I met a co-chair of the Democratic Party who was volunteering for Joe Hogsett. I got to meet him and speak with him at length. I couldn't contribute anything more than a modest contribution financially, and wasn't by any means powerful or influential, and he sat there and talked with me as if I ran the known universe. Incredibly open-minded and welcoming guy. That year the loathsome maggot Dan Coates defeated him, and Indiana was represented by Coates and Quayle in the Senate.

So I know what you're talking about and what Indiana Democrats are up against.

Peterson could really make a wave or two, and I think his future could be very bright.

Hell, I still like Vance Hartke. As loyal Democrats go, Vance was just terrific. And he was a HELL of a lot more pro-Veterans rights than that little toy soldier Steve Buyer (sp?).

And today's modern-day Senate could sure use a couple more Birch Bayhs, too. Evan's perhaps the shrewder politician, but is dad was solid gold in my house.

Go, Democrats.

[salin]

15. I am just sorry that my political memory does not go back far enough

to remember when Indiana had two democratic senators (Bayh and Hartke). My Indiana political memory begins with Quayle beating BBayh. Since then I have lived in and out of the state, but never stopped paying attention.

When I lived in metro DC, I took a visiting friend to meet the late Rep. Frank McClosky. He had been Mayor of my hometown when I was growing up, and had taken a class from my father. While I had not pre-scheduled the visit (we just showed up), he took time out of his schedule to take us to lunch in the House dining room, and then up to the gallery in the House to watch the last session to be presided over by Tip ONiell. That is etched in my memory.

Perhaps that is why I would take an extra sense of satisfaction at watching Hostettler get knocked out of his congressional seat - he was the one who knocked Frank out, in 1994.

Old Crusoe, thanks for the compliment :D :hi:

[saltpoint]

16. I love the McClosky/O'Neil story. What a great landmark story for

a life-long Democrat.

I betcha a lot of us will agree with you on getting Hostettler out of there. On election night, I'll send as many good vibes as I can to that district.

:thumbsup:

:hi: :dem:

[Hoosier Dem]

17. I really can't stand Hogsett...

This guy is the caricature of ambition with no substance. He ran a great race against Coates back in 1990, but then just kinda got drunk on his own ego. I would LOVE to see Bart Peterson run for Senate. Its amazing how Indianapolis is slowly evolving into a Democratic city.

In all fairness, Lugar hasn't been the worst senator, especially when you compare him to Quayle and Coates. Given the Republican domionance of Indiana, if I had to have a Republican Senator, I'd pick Lugar. I can envision some real nightmare scenarios. Try "Senator Mark Souder" on for size or "Seantor Dan Burton". :puke: Ok, I'll stop now. I know I'm scaring the kids.

[saltpoint]

18. We part company on Joe Hogsett, but that's ok. Peterson is popular

and could run a great race.

If Daniels is no more popular than he is now, maybe Bart will jump into the gubernatorial race. I'd prefer him hands down to that little monster Mitch Daniels.

That still leaves the Senate race in 2012 -- for Lugar's seat. Who do you like? Vi Simpson or Joe Kiernan or Joe Hogsett? Jill Long?

It's going to be interesting.

Loved your line there about Souder and Burton. LOL!