NYT : GOP In Peril of Losing House

[OzarkDem]

Even the mainstream media is admitting the GOP is in big trouble this election year.

The major prognosticators - Cook, Rothenberg, et al are saying Congress will go Dem. The GOP is at risk of losing seats that they won by 20 or more points in the last election..

The only concern is whether Dems can have enough money to keep fighting..

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/04/washington/04campaign.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5094&en=6e1428a2510550a2&hp&ex=1157428800&partner=homepage

[NOLADEM]

1. What's this about Dem Money Concerns?

Aren't the Dems outraising the Repubes right now?
Can someone point me to a good link for a money comparison?

I am maxed out due to local races this year (and trying to get rid of William Jefferson), but if I gotta help, where is $500 more best spent to help the Dems achieve a majority?

Thanks in advance for any info.

[davidwparker]

3. I'm doing the same with Jim Webb. This is the race that my extra

resources are going to. Connecticut, keep it up with Lamont, but I'm hoping Webb carries the day here.

[Eric J in MN]

4. Diane Farrell, the Democrat challenging Chis Shays (R)

...could use money to win this time.

She got 48% of the vote against Chis Shays in 2004.

http://www.farrellforcongress.com/about/index.html

(Bonus: The majority of Democrats in CT will vote for Ned Lamont. Helping Democrats running for the House in CT helps get Democrats to the polls to cast that vote for Ned Lamont.)

[NOLADEM]

10. Thanks for the info

I will look at her and see what I think.

She is pro-choice, correct?

And thanks for posting the cash on hand numbers too, to the other poster.

[Eric J in MN]

11. Yes, Diane Farrell is pro-choice.

http://www.farrellforcongress.com/issues/women.htm

[Eric J in MN]

5. Here are the cash-on-hand figures.

(money raised minus money already spent):
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/30/132820/363

"Democratic Party: $95,189,180 -- Republican Party: $134,140,387"

The only category in which Democrats have more cash on hand is the Senate commmittee:
"DSCC: $35,091,284 -- NRSC: $20,570,361"

For anyone thinking of donating to a Democrat: it's better to do it now while there are more Undecided Voters than later.

[davidwparker]

2. I pray they get at least one of them back. The Dems need to be able to

hold official investigations. This country needs to get this administration under oath.

[longship]

6. Consider this.

The election season hasn't even begun. Yet, all the media are chiming in on this.

I know that many are cynical about this, but one has to understand that the news business does not make money by making predictions which are based on close numbers. The only thing one can presume about all these prognostications is that the situation is looking very, very bad for the GOP, particularly with the House of Representatives.

We're two months from the election and things have really fallen apart for the GOP. All ChimpCo can do is trot out their minions to try to stop the ship from sinking. Their strategy is very simple. Promote more fear. Dirty tricks. But behind it is the inescapable message, "Stay the Course".

The somewhat rhetorical questions I would pose to my DU brethren are these:

* Is it impossible that the US electorate has opened their eyes to the ChimpCo debacle?

* Can anybody make a credible case that the utter chaos at the top of our government will not go unanswered in November?

* If as many as fifty GOP House seats are in play (as many are projecting), is there any way that any coordinated electoral gaming will not be obvious and detected? In other words, is there any credible claim that the GOP will be able to stop the oncoming storm?

* If it's true that the electorate is wise and weary of GOP shenanigans, wouldn't more of the same result in precisely the opposite of what the GOP desires?

I see conditions which are pretty much unprecedented in my forty years of political activism. Not even 1968 or 1994 compare. What I truly suspect is that there are political currents which are significantly different than prior times. The people *are* afraid. But unfortunately for ChimpCo, they've played the fear card so damned many times that they've activated the people's fear against themselves. What has possibly crept into the nation's psyche after three years in Iraq, after Katrina, and (Yes!) after 9/11, is that, in spite of all the bloviating, the GOP seems to be totally incapable of keeping us safe. And, yes, maybe nobody can do that. However, the GOP has clearly failed in that task.

This is gut-level stuff. So people may not be actively thinking about it and may not even discuss it or reveal it when the pollsters call. However, they know. When they walk into that voting booth in November they are going to act on these gut feelings. Many races which are being labeled as non-competitive will be turned over.

In spite of there being some close races, not a single Democratic Party held seat is in serious jeopardy. Not one. The GOP wishes they could say the same. They aren't even close to being able to say that. If we count the competitive seats alone, there are some fifty GOP to less than a dozen Dem seats. How many people have seen that situation before? I can't remember anything similar.

[OzarkDem]

8. I agree, good analysis

People seem to be rebelling against Bush and the GOP at a gut-level, but they're not talking about it. Its an unusual environment and I can only hope these voters don't get tricked again at the last minute.

[Joe Chi Minh]

9. Surely, you're on the money here.

What is a 'gut feeling', after all, but a synthesis of myriad factors, palpable and abstruse, made at an intuitive level. But it seems just plain common sense that people 'get it' in the end. Nobody is so indifferent to suffering they don't notice it or check out the cause of it.

[samsingh]

12. i think you're right in that people are afraid of bush now

the momentum is against the repugs.

if the repugs don't get demolished, we should be on the streets shouting that the election was stolen.

[Sherman A1]

7. I hope so, but I really doubt it.

[saltpoint]

13. Very encouraging. Yes, we'll take the House. And as long as we're in

town, why not grab the Senate, too?

Cement-Head Allen lost some ground to Webb after that "macaca" remark in Breaks, Virginia. Sure would be nice to take Allen out of the presidential picture, too, all in one swoop.