Top 10 Senate seats most likely to change party: Dems still stuck at 5

[DeepModem Mom]

Need 6 to regain control of the Senate --

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
9/5/2006
The Senate Line: Dems Still Stuck at Five

....But most of these campaigns have not truly engaged yet and much will change between now Nov. 7....

***

4. Ohio: As regular readers of The Fix know, we have been skeptical about Democrats' chances in this race for months. Republicans have begun their expected onslaught against Rep. Sherrod Brown (D), mining his voting record for alleged weaknesses on tax and national security measures. But, polls continue to show Brown with a lead (albeit within the margin of error.) Ask Republicans privately about the playing field in Ohio and they scramble to find words bad enough to fit the bill. Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) hasn't really committed any fireable offense, but it may not matter if the national and state winds are blowing strong enough in his face. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Rhode Island: Two polls came out last week measuring where Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) and Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R) stand in the Sept. 12 GOP primary race. The first, conducted by Rhode Island College, showed Laffey with a 51 percent to 34 percent lead. The second, funded by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, had Chafee ahead 53 percent to 39 percent. Which one is right? Probably neither. From what we here from both camps, this is a nip-and-tuck affair that could go either way in the next week. One other point: Coverage of this primary as a battle between the moderate Chafee and conservative Laffey is entirely misleading. Laffey is more conservative than Chafee, but he has campaigned as a populist outsider, not a firebreathing conservative. The primary winner faces Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) in the fall (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Montana: Sen. Conrad Burns's campaign continues to implode. The three-term incumbent is drawing negative press for a variety of public comments, ranging from implying that his house painter -- "a nice little Guatemalan man" -- might be an illegal immigrant to painting the war on terror as a fight against those who "drive taxicabs in the daytime and kill at night." Late last week Burns called on Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) to declare a state of emergency in Montana to handle an ongoing fire; Schweitzer had already done so a month before. Republicans will attack state Sen. Jon Tester (D) as a liberal who is out of step with the state's voters, but Burns is making it easy to make this race a referendum on his service. He is in dire straits. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Pennsylvania: For the first time this cycle, we seriously weighed moving Pennsylvania down to the second position on the Line. Although Sen. Rick Santorum (R) appears to have closed the gap a bit (the USA Today/ Gallup poll not withstanding) in his race against state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D), this race still looks close to unwinnable for the incumbent. Republican attempts to finance a Green Party candidate's bid for the ballot reveals that many within the party simply don't see a way Santorum can get to 50 percent. We agree. (Previous ranking: 1)

(NOTE: The remaining races on the list are in Missouri, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Tennessee and Michigan.)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[panader0]

1. I wish Arizona was on that list.

[Virginia Dare]

2. I think Virginia might be a shocker for the GOP...

at least I dearly hope so.