Did anyone else hear the new poll numbers out on Santorum/Casey?

[jenmito]

I THOUGHT I heard on MSNBC tonight that Santorum is now trailing by 18%! And it was on the bottom crawl, too, but I forget whose poll it was...maybe Gallup...

[blue cat]

1. What was it before?

sorry, I don't know.

[jenmito]

2. He was only down by 5 or 6% supposedly...

And Buchanan was on the show saying the reason Santorum is only about 5% behind Casey is because he's tough on immigration. That was at the same time the crawl was saying he's now down by 18% (like he used to be).

[blue cat]

4. Great

RS is so creepy, I don't see who could vote for him.

[napi21]

3. Yes, Tweety mentioned that to his guest panel.

I know at least the Pub on the panel said he didn't believe it.

There was another poll last weekthat said Ricky was closing the gap, but I don't recall which one it was. All the other polls have been pretty close to 18% for quite a while.

[jenmito]

8. I heard that, too...

But I know I saw on the crawl that he was down by 18% in the latest Gallup or Pew poll...don't remember.

[Joe for Clark]

5. I heard 11% - but I think its more.

I grew up in western PA - and I KNOW - the guy is toast.

PA is wierd, I suppose - the west is sort of the middle ground, the east is liberal and the center is more right wing. The moron lost Pittsburg some time ago - and I think he is going to have a hell of a time even convincing State College he should stay.

And I really don't think anyone can calculate the "no-shows" likely this November - I mean GOP "no-shows" - How can they really do that??

Santorum lost Pittsbug - he loses here.

Joe

[jenmito]

9. Good...

I saw it was something like 35% to 53%, Casey leading. There's no way he could REALLY win. I'm just worried about him stealing it if he gets close.

[Joe for Clark]

12. Here is thing - cold comfort -

As long as we are winning by 5 points or more, I don't believe they could cheat.

You know Freeman is saying outright that we should be hiring our own "exit pollster" to monitor this election.

He is dead right.

But I'll tell you, if we have 5 points going in, only Jesus Christ could cheat his way out of it.

A lot of people will watch this one closely, I think. And a lot of people that saw 2004 know the guy cheated. He really did.

This could still be proven to this day - but the data necessary to do so is and will be withheld until we are all dead.

I saw Casey, I liked him. And I know west PA - and what I saw will be proven all along the valley into Ohio.

Hope all is well with you,

Joe

[jenmito]

13. I hope you're right...

I agree 100% that we should have our own exit pollsters, but wasn't it a fact that Kerry won according to all the OH exit polls? Or were they Repub. "exit pollsters" who just claimed the exit polls were wrong?

I know Blackwell is going to allow access to the paper ballots but so what? That still doesn't explain the Diebold situation.

I'm doing ok. Hope you're doing well, too.

Jen

[Joe for Clark]

14. No we don't "know it".

Can't "prove it". It is just so highly likely. There were so many anomilies - but not proof.

The problem is that the proof lay in the data that we got "served" on. It was just withheld.

Still is. And we can't make such charges on a statistical probability, you know?? How many deviations from the mean does one need to make such serious charges??

You see they can make a lot of claims if we can't go to source - and we can't prove otherwise without the data. It is like some strange catch 22.

Jen, really my Dad was a great fighter pilot and my Mom was a nurse then. And my brothers and my uncles fought in some god foresaken wars. The main reason I liked Clark so much was because I belived (still do) that the only people qualified to take our country to war were people that did the deal.

And really, I believe Americans are at heart pretty damn smart.

And I think I know the numbers. We are gonna kick their ass.

Joe

[jenmito]

16. Then that explains why...

Blackwell is willing to provide the paper ballots to "prove the conspiracy theories are all wrong." Of course he'd never allow them to prove Kerry really won.

Your honorable family make-up seems to explain your support of Clark. I support him for similar reasons even though nobody in my family served in the military or even anything related to the military. But they were still good people. :)

And I think you're right about your prediction.

Jen

[Joe for Clark]

18. You got it.

I think every one is good until proven otherwise. I do.

I saw something in Clarks eyes once - and I trust him. He could tell me I am full of shit, and I'd believe him.

Dad did all those things in the war, and all that, but many of my family were just dog faces and they went and they did their job and lived to come back. I know them, I loved all of them.

I know they lost the river valley, all the way up the Ohio, I know. Dad lived and taught in the universities and all that, but many of my family worked in the steel towns - and I sure don't love them any less.

I know that valley.

I am glad all is ok with you Jen,

It is game, set, match time for us.

Joe

[jenmito]

20. So do I...

My father reminds me of Clark just because of how he looks and because of how smart he is, but he's a pacifist. He didn't have to go to war because my mother was pregnant. And he said if he ever had to go he'd go to Canada or chain himself to his bed. :D But I'm very proud of him for being a teacher in a very poor school system his whole life as well as being a great musician in New Orleans back in the day. Now he and my mother are professional dancers. And my aunt was the assistant HUD secretary under Clinton. But enough about my family...

Your family sounds like good people and I'm glad you are for Clark like I am. Did you hear him speak today?

Jen

[Joe for Clark]

28. I did.

It is in his eyes I think.

Oh, Jen. The truth is I really am a moderate - Mom and Dad were much better dems than me.

Really, that is why we are gonna win here.

And I have no doubt about you or your family at all.

It was just their times - for my mom and dad, and they reacted accordingly.

But I'll tell you one thing Jen, Dad was a fairly well known fighter pilot, and Uncle John was a commander in 3rd army and Uncle Len was XO on a carrier and all that - but they did it because they knew the country was at danger. Its just a different time now. Same danger now. And much of my family worked steel mills and enlisted when they had to.

WE really will kick their ass, courtesty of the GI bill,

I am glad you are well Jen.

Joe

[jenmito]

30. They sound like great, down to earth people...

And for them to be Dems. is a good thing. :) And for you to be a Dem. is a good thing, too...especially a Dem. for Clark.

How are YOU doing? Maybe you'll be doing well after watching this clip if you haven't seen it yet:

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Video_Gen._Wesley_Clark_blasts_Bushs_0905.html

Jen

[Joe for Clark]

34. I knew, on a certain level, they were REALLY dems -

I did. When they died - I learned just how committed they were.

Makes me look like shit - really.

My Mom was an evac nurse in the war - she pulled my kids into her room when she was dieing and warned them about war - really warned them about it. Boy was she right and me wrong.

This is my kids third tour now - and I do not expect him to live thru it, I really don't.

The only thing that can make me feel better is a redeployment of the 3rd Brigade.

Those kids are f-cked and I know it. And I am sorry I ever "overrode mom" about war, even to get the bastard Bin Laden, I really am right now.

What I really think, why is that bastard even breathing right now - how is that???

General Clark should have been President right now - I don't rest too well here.

Especially on Fridays.

Joe

[jenmito]

37. You shouldn't do that...

to yourself. It sounds like you're being pretty hard on yourself. I hope your child comes home alive and soon. I agree with you on your question about bin Laden and it makes me so mad to NOW see Bush using him as his usual election-time scare tactic when he earlier said he really doesn't think about him that much and doesn't really care. I don't see why the Dems. don't take his "I don't think about him that much" clip over and over with his "wanted dead or alive" clip, and then just state the fact that bin Laden is still FREE.

I hope you feel better and don't be so hard on yourself! Clark is still working with the Dems. to win back congress and then hopefully he can run and WIN in '08!

[Cosmocat]

43. Eh ...

He has Centre County (State College) ...

The Rs have the county wrapped pretty tight ... He was up here last week for the Grange Fair (as was Spector), and the two R county Commissioners, the State Senator and every other R office holder were there to great him ... He is their guy, no doubt ... My guess is, that is the case for most of central PA ...

I hope you are right about the Burgh ... I have been down to the Greensburg area taking my mom to doctors appointments, and he has ads running about 4 times an hour ...

[TheCowsCameHome]

6. OxyBoy Rush said today that Santorum creamed Casey in the debate

Is he living proof that assholes come in all shapes and sizes, or what?

[lisa58]

7. I saw part of that debate this morning on c-span...

...no way did santorum win - he couldn't keep his blood pressure under control!

[jenmito]

11. I saw it on MTP...

And Santorum was hyper and sounded nuts. Especially talking about the "found WMD" and how Iran is the problem.

[jenmito]

10. Both guests on Matthews disagreed with Rush...

They said Casey won by not losing.

[Sugarcoated]

25. My feeling is Casey had that Bush 'lowered expectations'

thing going on. We're being told by conservatives how awful, boring, bad debater, etc. that Casey is. He went a good ways beyond that and was actually somewhat impressive - he appeared even tempered and intelligent. And sane, compared to whacky Rick. And what in the world compelled Santorum to tell Casey that his dad (former PA Governor) would be disappointed in him? Bob Casey, Sr. was a very popular governor, his son respected. That didn't come off well, Santorum looked like a mean jerk.

edited for spelling

[jenmito]

27. That could be...

I saw the debate and you described it perfectly. Santorum is nuts.

[luckyleftyme2]

36. rush the flush

i have no faith in anything this fool spews from his mouth. haven't since i see him on the early town meetings with clinton folk.
the man is a" bubbling idjat" one on one when it comes to most political subjects. and this is almost a direct quote from the news at that time.
they stated that "rush" could only work in a controled enviorment,with managed formats,and was quick to quote he was an entertainment program and was to be listened to with that in mind.
c'mon people he's a joke!

[Lexingtonian]

15. PA has a 54/46 partisan split

in favor of Democrats at the moment, so Casey is where he should be and practically all the Undecideds are probably going to vote for Crazy Ricky in the end. The 18% margin is a lot of fun, but it's not really where the final margin is going to be.

IMHO the game in the state is now really for the majorities in the state legislature and whether House Reps Sherwood or Dent can also be made casualties.

[dancingme]

17. Santorum can't fix his residency problem

PA taxpayers in the Pittsburgh area are very mad about having to pay for his kids' schooling when they lived in VA and his wife was supposedly "home schooling" them. He's toast in that area and no amount of terror screaming will fix that. And the voters in the Philly area think he's too nutty and extreme. Even the conservative voters in the Philly area think he's just too weird. His MTP performance just proved that he is a whack job.

[jenmito]

21. Good!...

I hope Casey points this out often!

[globalvillage]

19. Phone banking for Casey this evening.

My list was 'Dems who don't vote'.
Not only did the vast majority of my contacts say they would get out and vote for Casey, but I also got two volunteers for the campaign.
Lots of anti-Santorum sentiment in Pittsburgh. I'm not saying Casey's safe, but I like how it's looking.
Phone banking can be a lot of fun, BTW, for those of you who have never tried it. I talked to some great people tonight.
:-)

[jenmito]

22. Good for you!

It SOUNDS like Casey is safe! Do you think it's a plus that he's anti-choice, though, in PA?

[globalvillage]

31. I think it does.

Only because it levels the playing field. It's really a non issue for a lot of 'values' voters, since Casey and Santorum are both anti-choice. So it's easy for them to bypass this issue and look to all the others where Democrats clearly represent their values. Casey does support plan B, and I don't think most old school Catholics have a problem with that, since he's defining it as contraception. Despite the dogma, I don't know any Catholics who oppose contraception.
I don't know any fundies other than the Catholic variety, so I'm not sure about them.
I think most pro-choice voters will pick Casey over Santorum, who they (correctly, IMO) believe to be insane, and hopefully still get out to vote either on other issues or just to get rid of Ricky.
I think a lot of people see Casey as a moderate though imperfect alternative to the incumbent nutbag. Which is why I think he did very well on Sunday. He was calm and rational, Santorum was a raving loon. That may play well with Ricky's ever shrinking base, but most people aren't looking for a fight, they're looking for a senator.
This is just my impression from talking to folks, not my own POV.
I still think it's dangerous to say he's safe, though.

[jenmito]

39. Good point.

It does neutralize the issue. And yes, Casey is for the Plan B contraception while Santorum is against it, of course. I just saw Santorum on MSNBC this morning and he was told the latest poll has him down 18% and he said that poll is wrong. I think HE'S wrong and I hope I'm right. :)

[globalvillage]

49. Santorum just called me to participate in a Town Hall conference call

Wonder how in the hell I got picked for that!
I happened to be at a friend's house (republican), and she said "Boy, did they call the wrong person."
The call was pretty lame. Nothing on Iraq, no hard questions except a few regarding vets benefits, which Santorum said have 'dramatically improved'.
Yikes!
Anyone else?

[saltpoint]

24. Thank you for that work on behalf of Democrats.

Good to hear Santorum's candidacy is in trouble.

I hope Casey wins a landslide victory in November.

[snowbear]

23. Our "Santorum won the debate" member w/be pissed at the new poll #s....

O'well...

~~~~~~~~~~ (( )) ~~~~ Go Casey!

[jenmito]

26. I saw that thread...

What a shame for him/her. :)

[snowbear]

32. Yup. But I'm on my best behavior, and I won't remind that person...

...that they were DEAD WRONG with their freepish style review of the Casey > Santorom debate.

Even though they were dead wrong..

Completely and utterly without a doubt wrong..

Wrong with a capital W wrong..

Guinness Book of World Records WRONG!!

I won't remind them anymore. ....

Because I'm on my best behavior.

Until they post another lame comment like that again!

[jenmito]

40. And I say...

You're the better person for it. :D

[tabasco]

29. Casey has some good ads running right now.

Very effective IMO.

[jenmito]

41. Good!

I hope they bring his numbers up too high for Santorum to be able to steal the election.

[nickshepDEM]

33. Santorum's very own internal memo stated...

If we're not within 5% by Labor Day, we're fucked.

[snowbear]

35. He used those exact words??

LOL - funny!

[jenmito]

42. Is that a direct quote?

:D

[nickshepDEM]

46. lol

No, but close enough.

[jenmito]

47. Darn.

But that's what I figured you'd say.

[Imagevision]

38. Lieberman, Santorum, this is starting to shine...

[jenmito]

44. My favorite line from Casey...

was regarding Santorum's claim that there were WMD in Iraq: "Santorum agrees with Bush 98% of the time. I think his belief that Iraq had WMD is the 2% where he disagrees with Bush."

[jenmito]

45. Casey leading Santorum 56%-38%...

in new USA Today/Gallup poll.

[welshTerrier2]

48. here's a good link to a bunch of PA polls

http://www.pollster.com/polls/?state=PA&race=senate_race