2006 Senate Elections Report: Seats Likely to Stay Put

[Bob Geiger]

In my Friday column, I talked about the essence of handicapping the 2006 Senate races and the resulting balance of power in the 110th Congress starting in January. When you combine the seats that do not expire this year with the Senators who do face reelections but for which an almost-biblical event would be required for them to lose -- this year's solid "locks" for their parties -- we end up with a starting point of 47 Republicans and 39 Democrats staying put in the next Senate.

That's the landscape we have before we consider the other 14 races. These are the contests that are much more iffy and that will determine which political party gets to the majority number of 51 and which spends the next two years with little legislative power.

I had originally planned this to be a two-part series, concluding today. But as I go over all of the relevant factors in each of these races, it becomes obvious to me that I can serve readers better by extending it to three parts, concluding on Thursday. It's a lot to read, and the piece today would have been enormous, had I included all 14 remaining races.

In part two today, we're going to look at five of the fourteen remaining contests -- the races that are hardly in the bag, but that lean in one direction or the other. While it's possible for the other side to win these seats, there's slightly more than two months until election day and a lot of ground would have to be made up very quickly.

Leaning to Democrats

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI): Stabenow is Secretary of the Senate Democratic caucus, making her the third-ranking Democrat and many within the party had hoped that we would arrive at this point with her race as a sure-bet. It's not, but it's pretty damn close.

Michigan has had some tough times since George W. Bush became president and the question has been whether voters will count Team Bush as the cause of their woes or Stabenow, who was elected to her first term in 2000. But it's a bad year to be a Republican and, no matter how much the GOP may hope that voters blame Michigan's stale economy and job losses on their junior Senator, it's not likely to happen in big numbers.

And it sure isn’t likely to stick with Stabenow having eight to ten times as much cash as Republican nominee Michael Brouchard, which makes it much easier to neutralize the predicable tsunami of attack ads that will probably start today.

More than that -- and even with Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm in serious trouble this year -- Stabenow has been handily in front in every one of 20 or so independent polls done in 2006, with a September 3, Free Press-Local 4 poll showing her with 50 percent to Bouchard's 37 percent.

To seal the deal, Stabenow's campaign needs to tout how she has ferociously fought for greater funding for emergency first-responders and other domestic security measures throughout the 109th Congress, explain how those measures were killed by the Republican majority and ask voters to imagine what good deeds she could accomplish with her clout and with a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Please go to BobGeiger.com to read more.

[AX10]

1. We should have 50 seats total after this election.

[nickshepDEM]

2. Thats wishful thinking...

I hope we get to 50 or more as much as the next guy, but right now it doesnt seem realisitc.

Lean Dem
PA
MD

Tossup
OH
MT
RI
MO

Lean Rep
NJ
VA
AZ
TN

I do believe we're in good shape to take back the house.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. TN has become a tossup and NJ leans Dem

Tom Kean Jr. has nothing but his father's name and people are starting to realize that. Menendez kicked his ass in the debate and post debate polling showed such.

In TN Ford is in a dead heat with Corker. It's a genuine pickup possibility but it won't be easy.

[Lasher]

6. 50 won't give us a majority anyway, we need 51

With a 50-50 split Darth Cheney would cast a tie-breaking vote.

[papau]

3. I think you are incorrect-the Senate is beginning to look like Dem control

It is 47 GOP vs 42 Dem plus Dem possible in Arizona, albeit unlikely, plus Dem slightly likely in Virginia.

As to Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee:

At http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/09/the_senate_line_dems_stuck_at.html they are saying we are stuck at five gains

Maryland is very likely Dem if Cardin wins primary - but only a likely if Kweisi Mfume wins Dem nod.

New Jersey has Countdown giving Kean (R) airtime, and the Dem "scandal of helping a campaign contributor who rents property from you" - but Menendez (D) is still likely the winner.

Missouri: The new Research 2000 poll showing McCaskill (D) ahead 47 percent to 46 percent for Talent, despite his outspending the challeger on ads to date - goes in the D column.

Ohio: Polls continue to show Brown with a lead over Mike DeWine (R).

Rhode Island: If the GOP go with Laffey (R) over Chafee (R), this should be a Whitehouse (D) win.

Montana: Sen. Conrad Burns (R)is dead meat.

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (D) is a lock over Santorum.

That's 50 without getting AZ.

http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/08/2006-senate-ratings.html

42 D with 11 to ponder, but 8 of the 11 (counting Virginis) leaning D.

So why does not one of the remaining three fall Dem - like say AZ or Tenn - Ford behind but currently competitive?

[Daylin Byak]

4. I think we still got a chance in the Senate

My predictions FOR EVERY SINGLE SEAT IN THE SENATE

Safe GOP
Orrin Hatch, Utah
Kay Bailey Hutchison, Texas
Jon Kyl, Arizona
Trent Lott, Mississippi
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Safe Dem
Dan Akaka, Hawaii
Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico
Robert Byrd, West Virginia
Tom Carper, Delaware
Hillary Clinton, New York
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Minnesota Open Senate Seat
Dianne Feinstein, California
Vermont Open Senate Seat
Ted Kennedy, Massachussetts
Herb Kohl, Wisconsin
Ben Nelson, Nebraska
Bill Nelson, Florida
Maryland Open Senate Seat

Leans Dem
Bob Menendez, New Jersey
Ned Lamont, Connecticut
Debbie Stabanow, Michigan

Leans GOP
John Ensign, Nevada (I still have hope for this seat, forgive me)

Possible Dem Takeovers
George Allen, Virginia
Conrad Burns, Montana
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island
Mike DeWine, Ohio
Tennessee Open Senate Seat
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania
Jim Talent, Missouri

Possible GOP takeover
Maria Cantwell, Washington

Yes I will the Senate will be more diffcult to take over cause of the lack of competitive seats available, but will the lack of trust of the GOP and with the range of great Dem candidates running for the Senate like Bob Casey, Sherrod Brown and Jack Carter, we could put a "rabbit out of our asses" sort of speak, you dig?

[LynneSin]

7. I've been down this path too many times

First, we aren't winning Ohio. Simple enough - Diebold. Black"not-to"well needs to fix for his win and it would look questionable if he 'won' and DeWine didn't.

I'm just not getting my hopes up and hoping for us to hold tight to the current numbers

[Daylin Byak]

11. Yes we are winning Ohio

Cause I know that the votes will prevail and Sherrod Brown will win by a slim margin cause he's out there shakeing hands and getting his word out to the people, he's got a chance

Can't blame all our problems on Diebold. I know I won't and I never will.

[pinto]

8. Kick.

[cali]

9. Bob, Thanks so much

for the terrific job you're doing covering the Senate races. I really appreciate it.

[9119495]

10. Could straight ticket voters doom Lieberman in CT?

I know "the Gambler" is polling around 4% but isn't there a possibility that some died in the wool republicans will out of habit mark straight ticket and not mark Lieberman? Is this wishful thinking or a real hope that Lieberman's numbers will ultimately be effected by peoples' unwillingness to fill out so many dots?

[Lasher]

12. I think you've got a good point there

And Lieberman might also be hurt by Democratic straight ticket voters.