Rhode Island: Is Laffey to Lincoln Chafee as Lamont was to Joe Lieberman?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: Lieberman Redux in Rhode Island?
By Ruth Marcus
Wednesday, September 6, 2006; Page A15

WARWICK, R.I. -- Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey doesn't run for office, he bounds -- up steps, across lawns, in his quest to unseat Rhode Island's incumbent senator, Lincoln Chafee, in next Tuesday's primary....

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Is Steve Laffey to Linc Chafee as Ned Lamont was to Joe Lieberman?

Once again an incumbent senator who often breaks with his own party -- this time a Republican -- could find himself toppled. Once again, the opponent is an energetic businessman-turned-politico, milking discontent among the base and disgust with Washington. Once again, outside groups -- in Connecticut the liberal blogs, here the anti-tax Club for Growth -- are stoking voter anger.

It was inevitable, then, that Laffey-Chafee would be cast as the GOP replay of the Connecticut Democratic primary. Yet the analogy goes only so far. The Rhode Island race is more complex, certainly odder and potentially far more momentous.

For angry Democratic voters, a Lamont vote was all but risk-free. Rhode Island is Connecticut with consequences: A Laffey nomination in this heavily Democratic state could imperil GOP control of the Senate. A general election race between the Democratic nominee, former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse, and a bruised Chafee promises to be close. But nearly the only one who thinks Laffey would beat Whitehouse is Laffey. "I'll crush him," he asserts....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/05/AR2006090501130.html

[saltpoint]

1. 'Would love to know where the momentum is in the GOP primary in RI.

The blue team needs this seat.

[w4rma]

2. The article only barely hints at why the conservatives are angry at Chafee

Oh well. I'd rather that the Republican leadership learn the hard way.

Of course, the Republican leadership probably already knows and doesn't care.

[gaspee]

3. The best we can hope for is a Laffey win

If only registered republicans voted in the primary, Laffey would win by a landslide over Chafee. The few mouth-breathers we have in this state that are actually registered republicans (10% of all registered voters or @ 45,000 people) don't like Chafee because he's not a real republican according to them. I happen to think Chafee's the only real republican left, but the modern republicans don't agree.

So, if only Republicans vote in this primary, Laffey wins, then Whitehouse runs away with it. But, over half of RI's registered voters are unaffiliated and they can vote in either the dem or repub primary, plus anyone who is registered in either party can unaffiliate and vote in the R primary.

The polls are so far apart in this race that you really can't get a feel for what's going on. One has Chafee up 17 points, the other had Laffey up 17 points.

From personal experience, I'm seeing a lot more Chafee signs on people's lawns than Laffey signs. I'm in Warwick, the 2nd largest city (cranston is third) and the city Chafee was mayor of, and I don't really leave Warwick. Cranston is right next door and I bet if I drove around the neighborhoods in Cranston, I'd see more Laffey signs. So, I guess what I'm saying is that my empirical evidence might not be all it's cracked up to be.

I think this race is going to total about 30,000 votes so there's really no way to tell what's going to happen.

I guess we'll know in six days, right?

I probably should have gone unaffiliated so I could vote for Laffey, but I really want to support Sheeler in the dem primary. I think the only way we can get whitehouse further to the left, especially on the war, is to show him that people support Sheeler, who is to the left of Whitehouse.

If you haven't read the post article, you should read it.


This is a paragraph from the article in the Post about Chafee...

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Hence the spectacle of the Washington Republican establishment rushing to the defense of a man who voted against all the Bush tax cuts, the war in Iraq, the Medicare prescription drug plan and Justice Samuel Alito, and who favors gay marriage and abortion rights and opposes the death penalty for Osama bin Laden


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In my opinion, only about half of the dem caucus has such a good voting record. That is why if Chafee wins the primary, it's going to be tough to beat him. And the fact that people actually like the guy (and I'm one of them. I can't afford to vote for him. If the dems had a majority in the senate, I might actually vote Chafee) makes him tough to beat in the general election.


Bottom line, if Laffey wins, the seat is a pick-up for dems. If Chafee wins, the dems are going to have to send the big guns to RI to campaign for Whitehouse. He was states attorney under Clinton and the Big Dog has already been here to campaign for Whitehouse. He'd need to set up camp here for the next two months. People can't get enough of him around here. Go figure.

[skipos]

4. "if Laffey wins, the seat is a pick-up for dems"

YES YES YES YES YES!!!
We want LAFFEY to win!!!
Get everyone you know to vote for LAFFEY!!!

[DeepModem Mom]

5. Thanks for this informative on-the-scene report! nt

[ComerPerro]

6. Chafee is a freak, I'd like to see him gone