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If John Kerry wins the Democratic nomination and goes on to be the next U.S. president, experts say it would be good for Wall Street, which likes the way he talks up balancing the budget.
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"Kerry (policy) will probably be similar to a Clinton economic policy, which would be more focused on balancing the budget," said Gus Faucher, a senior economist with Economy.com, where he tracks elections. "That would bring down interest rates and drive up bond prices," he added. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. Stocks are a different story. Analysts said a successfully balanced budget will eventually help stocks once the deficit becomes more manageable.
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If Kerry keeps his winning pace and can beat Bush in November, he would still face the prospect of governing as a Democrat with a Republican-controlled Congress. In that atmosphere, gridlock often holds sway -- a condition generally loathed by politicians, but cheered by investors.
"There is a large body on Wall Street that believes in gridlock. Gridlock means (the government) does less harm," said Greg Valliere, the chief political strategist with Schwab Washington Research Group. Aside from the possible logjam, the deficit is the chief concern among political economists. This year's U.S. budget deficit is forecast at $521 billion, close to but still lower as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product than the worst budget shortfalls under President Ronald Reagan. Kerry has vowed, if elected, to "cut the budget deficit in half in four years," according to his campaign Web site.
"Kerry would probably show more restraint on spending than Bush has so far," Faucher said.
http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/02/06/rtr1249453.html
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