Parsing the Polls: Voters Mad as Hell
Turnout will be the most important factor of the upcoming election. Midterms are typically low turnout affairs with only the most dedicated partisans casting their ballots. To date, intensity among Democrats has far outweighed that of their GOP counterparts. Republicans are hoping that a focus on terrorism will energize their base, thereby neutralizing the Democratic fervor.
A new poll conducted for CNN by the Opinion Research Corporation shows that voters are unhappy and itching for a change, although it also indicates that both Democrats and Republicans are more enthusiastic about this election than previous ones -- a positive sign for the GOP.
Let's Parse the Polls.
The most intriguing question in the CNN survey asked: "Would you say you are generally content with the way things are going in the country today, or is there something you would say you are angry about?"
More than three-quarters (76 percent) of the sample (1,004 adults) said they were "angry about something," while 21 percent said they were "generally content." Three percent had no opinion. Contrast that with a similar poll conducted for CNN in early February that showed 59 percent of the sample was angry compared to 32 percent who were content and nine percent who had no opinion.
Asked how things are going in the country, 54 percent said badly while 46 percent said well. Looking closer, however,
there is a considerable intensity gap in those two views. Twenty five percent said things were going "very badly" while just nine percent said things were going "very well."
Other recent surveys back up this sense that America has gone off the rails. In a Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll (in the field Aug. 25-27), 28 percent of the 801 registered voters tested said America was heading in the right direction while 64 percent said it was on the wrong track. A Newsweek survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research (Aug. 24-25 of 1,002 adults) produced a similar result. Twenty eight percent said they were satisfied with "the way things are going in the United States" while 65 percent said they were dissatisfied.
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http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/edit:emphasis mine