Setting up the Meme: Exit polls are suddenly 100% unreliable, says Tweety

[Atman]

Wow. You have to admit, they're covering all the bases. Matthews just had a panel on which "discussed" the "fact" that they can't seem to be able to rely on any of the polling this year. From the Chaffee race in Rhode Island to anywhere Republicans happen to be having their asses handed to them, people are coming out in droves to lie to pollsters.

The most telling bit of bullshit amongst this most bullshitty of bullshit was the fact that every panelist agreed that they couldn't figure out any reason why people would lie to anonymous pollsters. Never have before, but now, suddenly (when Republicans are at risk, coincidentally), people are askeered to talk to pollsters honestly, and are lying to them.

Anyone who has been paying attention knows which character is missing in this tragicomedy so far...Diebold. Rasmussen, Gallup, ABC, Quinnepiac, all of 'em, they can poll until their fingers bleed, dammit, but the people are lying! So don't believe a word you hear, America. When the Republicans maintain their grip on power this fall, despite historically low approval numbers and widespread outrage among the general population, it shouldn't come as a surprise to any of us. People just lie to pollsters.

:scared:

[notadmblnd]

1. getting ready to steal another one...

let's see.. who and where will it occur?

[movonne]

2. No, he is wrong....diebold is 100% wrong....

[Not Me]

3. One thing that does cloud exit polling is early voting.

If those who vote early are drawn to one party or candidate.

[OzarkDem]

4. They're being pretty bold this time

they have nothing left, no other way to win.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. I'm watching the same show as you. I admit to not paying full attention...

... but heard something different about polling - specifically about Harold Ford. They all seemed to agree that people *would* lie to pollsters, at least about matters of race. They said that people would say they'd vote for Ford but in the booth, would do the opposite, based solely on his race.

Again, I wasn't paying full attention to that segment and obviously missed what you cited.

[MissWaverly]

6. No, I vote for the candidate

If Bush turned a beautiful shade of purple tomorrow, I still would never vote for him, if
John Conyers was running for president I would vote for him. It's whether or not the candidate
has the right stuff or is merely brand X.

[karynnj]

10. That actually is a classic case given of when you need to discount

poll results - where was people think they "should do" conficts with thir prejudices. (It would be the same for a woman candidate in many areas.

@004 can not be explained this way - you had religious leaders and most figures of authority in favor of Bush. Some who thought they would vote Kerry - might be reluctant to say so publicly.

The question I would ask is what has changed to make something pretty dependable for years completely unreliable. The methodology didn't change, the analysts are as trained, no one said there was a higher level people refusing to answer.

[dflprincess]

7. And yet, the exit polls taken after the election in

the Ukraine (it was the Ukraine, wasn't it?) were so accurate they were used as evidence to overturn the official results.

Perhaps we should hire their polling people.

[McCamy Taylor]

8. People do not "lie" in precints that use hand counted ballots. Funny that.

This was one of the problems with the "Reluctant responders theory". Also, only Republicans lie. Meaning that someone only fudged the GOP vote when it was a machine counting the votes.

[lynne]

11. Sorry, can't agree with that -

- my mother is a life-long Dem and she lied to an exit pollster a few years ago. Her reason for lying was that her vote is private and she wasn't going to tell anyone who she had voted for.

I'm shocked she talked to him at all. She's in her mid-70's and I think didn't want to appear rude but wasn't going to tell him who she had pulled the lever for. So - she just fibbed. Maybe other older voters are like her and don't wish to reveal what they consider very personal business.

[TechBear_Seattle]

9. Despite historic evidence showing close correlation

Between exit polls and actual voting. That has been the whole point of doing exit polling.

[applegrove]

12. Exit polls have been off in recent elections. Including where there are

hand counted ballots.

[applegrove]

13. Fits in with reluctant responder theory. Which is already out there.

This is not a meme..this is what the scientists said a few months after teh 2004 election. Reluctant could include "liar" no?

So - even if you disagree (and many do)...it isn't knew. And the facts backing it up are at least as numerous as the hard facts on massive voter fraud by diebold machine. In fact..the diebold theory ignores that exit polls were off in districts that had hand counts of paper ballots.