2006 Senate Elections Report: I Say It's 50-50 in January

[Bob Geiger]

There's no shortage of people handicapping the 2006 Senate and House races and, because some of the contests are so filled with nuance and uncertainty, there's a tendency to be vague in predictions and to use words like "leaning" and "possible" when describing likely outcomes.

I'm not going to do that for my critical final picks. In my column today, I'm going to tell you, from two months away, exactly how I see the Senate looking when the ballots are counted on November 7 -- or, perhaps in states where Diebold equipment is used, not counted -- and I'll do it by just flat-out making definitive picks.

No guts, no glory, right?

In parts one and two of this short series handicapping the 2006 Senate races, we looked at all the open seats, added in the people who simply can't lose -- such as Clinton in New York and Hatch in Utah -- and then added the races in which the likely winner appears clear.

We conclude today, by looking at where the rubber truly meets the road in these midterm Senate elections and, if my predictions so far hold true, our running tally now sits at 49 Republicans and 42 Democrats, with just nine races left up in the air.

Bottom line, up front: Democrats have a very daunting task in this election to the extent that they need to pretty much run the table on all the toss-up races to take back the Senate majority and I don't believe that's going to happen. But with the information I have today, and with a large chunk of gut-feel thrown in, I do believe Democrats are going to make a huge leap and the Senate balance in January will be 50-50.

Here's a (relatively) brief analysis of the critical races that lead me to that conclusion:

Maryland

Oy vey, the e-mail I've gotten in the last week, castigating me for not having Maryland as a lock for the Democrats, regardless of who the Democratic candidate turns out to be after the September 12 primary. And I guess I can understand some of the complaints. In general, my cat, Spud, could run as a Democrat in Maryland and win by at least a few percentage points. But I'm writing this in early September, before Democrats have even selected a nominee, and it's tough to pick a winner based on few facts about the match-up that will take place.

Democrat Paul Sarbanes is retiring and his seat will either go to Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele or one of the two men vying for the Democratic nomination, to be decided on Tuesday: Congressman Ben Cardin or former Congressman Kweisi Mfume.

A SurveyUSA poll released August 31 had Mfume over Cardin 42 percent to 38 percent. But a Gonzales Research poll from last week showed Cardin ahead of Mfume by 13 points.

OK, so what now? Every single poll shows that Cardin, a ten-term Congressman, will handily defeat Steele in November and the charismatic Mfume runs close to dead even with Steele in most polls -- and that's before the flood of national support comes in for Mfume if he wins the nomination.

A Democrat will win this seat. We just have to wait until next Tuesday to see which one it will be.

Prediction: Democrat Ben Cardin or Kweisi Mfume

* * * * *

Minnesota

Mark Dayton, who may be one of the least popular Democratic Senators in Minnesota history, is retiring and the candidates to replace him after Minnesota's September 12 primary makes it official are Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Mark Kennedy. Klobuchar is Hennepin County Attorney and Kennedy is a Minnesota Congressman.

Kennedy has a cash advantage over Klobuchar -- $4 million to $2.5 million -- but that won't buy him enough television time to get over the hump of a Democratic-leaning state at a time when it sucks to be a Republican candidate.

I haven't seen one poll in 2006 that has Kennedy ahead of Klobuchar while many polls have had the Democrat with as much as a 19-point edge over Kennedy. Pollster.com's average of the last five major polls gives Klobuchar a 49 percent to 39 percent edge, while an average of the last 10 polls has it at 49 percent for Klobuchar and 40 percent for Kennedy.

This is going to be a big Democratic year and, in a state like Minnesota, Klobuchar will be a part of that overall victory. She's also helped by Kennedy himself who, in a debate last week, stated his position on the Iraq war with a White House sound bite that brought resounding boos from the crowd. "The focus has to be on victory, not on how quickly we retreat," declared Kennedy.

If you're Amy Klobuchar, that's pure gold.

Prediction: Democrat Amy Klobuchar

* * * * *

Missouri

Republican James Talent won his Senate seat by barely defeating Democrat Jean Carnahan in a 2002 special election and must run again this year to retain his spot -- I don't see him winning.

Democrat Claire McCaskill, Missouri's State Auditor, is running a good campaign against a Republican who hasn’t done much to distinguish himself during his short Senate tenure and who doesn’t excite the state's voters enough to get much beyond a 50 percent Senatorial approval rating.

It also doesn’t help that Talent has accepted money directly from lobbyist Jack Abramoff -- though he has reportedly now given it back -- at a time when many voters are discouraged with the level of corruption the GOP has brought to the Congress. There's also a stem-cell measure on the Missouri ballot this year and that may bring out more voters upset at George W. Bush's veto of the stem cell bill this summer, and the fact that Talent was one of the Senators who voted against the bill's passage to begin with.

Talent has also voted against every Democratic-sponsored bill in the Senate to raise the minimum wage and McCaskill has been wisely hitting him relentlessly on that issue.

Most polling done this summer has shown the candidates exchanging the lead, with the vote statistically even much of the time. The Pollster.com average of the last 10 major polls shows it as 46 percent for Talent to McCaskill's 45 percent. It's a dead heat, folks, which could be affected by national events, like whatever security scare the White House has up its sleeve for late October or early November.

While Talent has much more cash on hand than McCaskill, the Democratic challenger has Bill Clinton coming to campaign and do fundraising for her this weekend, which should help in many ways.

I have a hunch about this one and it says it's time for Talent to go home to Missouri -- or to whatever Republican lobbying job awaits him in Washington.

Prediction: Democrat Claire McCaskill

(Out of necessity, this is a rather lengthy article… Please go to BobGeiger.com to read the rest.)

[SteppingRazor]

1. As one of the many others handicapping the senate race...

I gotta say we're pretty much in total agreeance. I've been saying the Senate will be 50-50 since last year, though I've recently put Corker ahead of Ford and McCaskill ahead of Tester, leading to the same outcome but with different input.

One question, though -- recent polling has Virginia turning into a close race, now that Allen his stuck his foot so far down his mouth that he's practically crapped it out his other end. So, what do you think of the Virginia race as it now stands? Will the macaca stuff fall down the memory hole, and Allen regain his double-digit advantage before November? Or are people turned off to Allen on a more-permanent basis, leading to a possible Webb victory?

On edit: Oh, also, I've been calling Cardin over Mfume in the Maryland primary for ... well, since pretty much the beginning of primary season. And I'm not inclined to change that now. In the beginning I gave it to Cardin because of Mfume's problems at the NAACP, but now, I continue to pick Cardin because I believe, quite simply, he's run the better campaign.

[AX10]

2. First of all, I believe that we are going to keep all of our seats.

Maryland, New Jersey, Minnisota, and Washington State are going stay with the Democrats.

Second, I agree that the most likely outcome is going to be a 50/50 senate. A perfect (but near impossible) sweep would give us 54 Senate seats. In this case we must keep all of our Senate seats and pick up: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Tennesee, and Virginia. That is most likely not going to happen.

The Democrats will have between 49 and 52 Seats in the Senate if the election were held today.