DEMS projected to TAKE HOUSE!!

[espera17]

Over at Election Predictions ( http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com ), a neutral election site, Democrats are now projected to capture 15 seats, enough to take back the House. The Senate is also projected to be tied!!

[skipos]

1. I see "14"

[GOTV]

2. Polls predict Kerry win!

Remember those?

[skipos]

16. No, I don't remember many pre-election polls predicting a Kerry win

Most of them predicted a Bush win. Fox News was one of the few polls that predicted a Kerry win.

[espera17]

20. yes, and kerry was never polling ahead in key states

like ohio or florida

[GOTV]

30. Gallup declared well in advance....

... that the race was Kerry's to lose.

[skipos]

31. Look at the 14 major polls right before the election

2 predicted a Kerry win, 2 had a tie and 10 had a Bush win.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[GOTV]

33. I'm not talking about the polls right before the election...

... I'm talking about an array of breathless predictions that occurred months before the election, similar to the one in the article we're responding to, that predicted Kerry wins. The Gallup was an example of that.

My point being that the referenced article isn't worth the electrons it's written in.

[skipos]

34. Can you show me which poll you are talking about?

The CNN/USAT/Gallup from 9/13/04 - 9/15/04 had Bush winning by 14%

[GOTV]

36. Here's a few articles

I wonder if each one of these were posted here.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/07/21/academics_says_its_kerrys_to_lose.html
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote_Aug1104.html

National review article on Gallup's call of the election for Kerry
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_22_56/ai_n13659409

Washington Monthly predicting a Kerry landslide
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1316/is_5_36/ai_n6129894

No one has any credible idea if we will take the house this fall.

[espera17]

38. but this is different

it isnt just whimsical predictions. they are based on polls, approval numbers, campaign cash, partisan leanings of the district, and a host of other factors

[afrosia]

37. Probably just to encourage Bush voters to grab...

their shotguns and head to the polling booths.

[high density]

40. Zogby said 314 EVs for Kerry on eve of 2004 election

He got my hopes up!

[espera17]

42. zogby is unreliable/poor pollster

in fact.. i don't know of any site that uses his results

[laugle]

19. Don't forget Kerry DID WIN!!

[snowbear]

3. How's Ricky Santorum doing espera?

I'm sorry.. but after your ridiculous thread about Santorum, I can't look at your poll.

[MoonRiver]

4. That topic sentence needs to be pinned to the top of GD-Politics!

:kick:

[espera17]

5. oh please.. i am entitled to my opinion

I thought Santorum sounded more prepared and was being open about his beliefs whether you disagree with them or not. i don't think Casey was being as open as Santorum.

[snowbear]

6. You were drooling over your "Ricky boy" like a THUG in a strip joint

Sorry. But you lost my support with that one.

[espera17]

7. so it automatically makes me a republican if i think he did a good job?

and what are you talking about in that message.. FR? whats that

[MoonRiver]

8. FR = Free Republic, aka freeptard headquarters.

Most of us who watched the debate can't imagine how anybody, much less a Democrat, could think that Santorum won. He was shrill, hysterical, unhinged, and flip flopped all over himself.

You are clearly entitled to your own opinion. But try to understand the feelings here. It just seemed weird that a DUer would support Santorum.

[espera17]

9. well i disagree

and no I dont post at Free Republic. I honestly have never even been to the site. I don't think Casey sounded 'cool' and 'calm'. I think he just couldn't take control of the debate and be assertive. And I guess what matters in the end is that I am from PA and you are not.

[MoonRiver]

12. OK.

That's over now and it's time to move on.

I'm glad you started this thread. Really good to hear the projected House take-over! :kick:

[WCGreen]

27. How dare you take a contarian view....

What in god's name do you think you are...

A Free Free Free thinker.....

[TheWatcher]

65. Yes, and it doesn't bode well for you

If you give a damn at all about your state you should be scared Shitless of Sanitarium winning again.

I'm glad I'm NOT in Pennsylvania. If he's the Senator representing that state, you can have it.

[espera17]

11. sry I thought you were larissa,

thanks for allowing me to have my own opinion. I am not supporting Sant. I just thought he performed better than Casey.

[Jacobin]

10. I particularly admire his stand on man-tortoise sex

His precise recounting of the Rumsfeld talking points impressed me with his memory AND his ability to simultaneously turn off any thinking part of his brain and mouth the platitudes about 'progress in Iraq'

Lastly, his amazing ability to tune out any sense of irony in the things that he says is truly a gift.

Besides, I think it's kinda cool how he brings dead human embryos home to show his kids.

Santorum RAWKS!!!!

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. LOL.....

:rofl:

[espera17]

17. im not familiar with the incident

you are referring to

[Jacobin]

35. There may be a lot of incidents

you aren't familiar with about Santorum

Google is your friend.

[espera17]

39. will do

[CarlVK]

45. That was insulting and uncalled for

You cant go projecting those horrible things on someone merely because they honestly thought that an undesirable like Santorum actually performed better in a debate. If you recall this has happened before in the first Gore/Bush debate where Mr. Gore, the clearly more intelligent and preferrable of the candidates, actually sabotaged his performance with all the sighing and eye rolling.

Honorable people can disagree, and hurling out epithets like that reduces ones honor.

[espera17]

14. back to the thread topic

any other seats not listed as gains that you think will flop dem?

[maxsolomon]

15. i don't think Burner will take out Reichert

after all, he 'caught' the green river killer - who turned out to be a retard. big deal.

i wish she would but i have no faith in the voting public.

[espera17]

18. i agree

washington just seems to be out of whack lately

[espera17]

43. .

[espera17]

52. .

[espera17]

67. .

[espera17]

68. .

[AX10]

21. If we work hard enough and get the necessary resources out there...

we will win more than that. We can also win back the Senate and 30 Governorships too.

Let's keep working towards victory!

[espera17]

22. definitely

[Tiggeroshii]

23. The circulation of this site has been affective at getting people to

think that. He mentions it over there, but just so you guys see it, I'll give it here. It's pretty convincing me thinks, and has been consistent with the other polls I've seen but polls more districts.

http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.html

[espera17]

25. surprised they didnt poll CA-11

or nc-08, it seems as if they missed some close ones

[Tiggeroshii]

28. Yeah. Pombo's is one that polls have shown to be vulnerable.

And so far there haven't been any polls released to contradict that assertion.

[Imagevision]

24. Dems getting the house back is a givin... The Senate is a possibility

Civil war before november 1rst. ??

[Bjorn Against]

26. Don't get too excited yet.

It is still early and their is a lot to be done.

Let's pretend like we are in danger of losing 100 seats unless we campaign really hard.

[espera17]

32. agreed

gop GOTV is traditionally alot stronger than Dem GOTV

[Imagevision]

29. Looking forward to watch the chimp act with no power, lame duck time!

[espera17]

41. we can finally put a stop to the environmental/national destruction

[CarlVK]

44. Great forecast for impeachment!

After the election, we need to hammer on them for that.

[espera17]

46. that will backfire.. people want change not revenge

[CarlVK]

48. Impeachment isnt about revenge, its about the law and ethics of power

And when the people SEE the case against Bush, nbicely packaged and well presented, they will largely agree. The only thing we might lack is the will to do the right thing.

[TheWatcher]

66. Oh, but following the rule of law would be too vengeful

After all, we mustn't look to shrill or aggressive, or the Public just won't respond.

They'll just all cynically turn to the Republicans.

We should just turn the other cheek and let The Republicans rule the planet in peace.

:sarcasm:

[espera17]

47. NOW ITS 16!!

[salin]

49. you have done a nice job with that site.

[espera17]

50. thanks, but its not mine

[thinksmart]

51. Its not over till the fat lady sings - Keep campaigning till election time

Keep actively campaigning and don't get over confident.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-gadems10sep10,1,3198738.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

[espera17]

right, we cant let our guard down or the gop smear machine

will take over

[espera17]

53. right, we cant let our guard down or the gop smear machine

will take over

[Cameron27]

55. Good, I'm optimistic

and encouraged. Thanks for posting.

[jenmito]

56. I like your avatar.

:D

[Cameron27]

57. Yours is mighty fine too

;)

[KansDem]

54. YEOW!!! Get the committees together and START INVESTIGATING!!!

I want that miserable SOB put under oath and questioned!!! I want the Dems to be all over him like jays on a junebug!!! Remember the 3 "I"s: Investigate; Indict; Incarcerate.

[skip fox]

58. We could lose without a set of good (and honest) messages.

While the White House and its minions (as on Fox News) push the War on Terror as a way of framing (i.e., "hiding") the Iraq issue for the election, we need people to bring it out of hiding.

Here's one basic approach (I'm sure there are many others):

"Republicans and the administration don't want to run on the mess they made in Iraq, so like a magician they try to distract our attention by covering it under the umbrella of 'A War on Terror,' thereby hiding their blunders from the conception to the execution of the war, from WMD's and Sadam-terrorist's links to the civil war which is now in full progress. It's a GIANT SHELL GAME dreamed up by Rove. We need solutions, not PR tricks or a magician's slight of hand. They dress up the pig and then they want us to marry it."

Why can't we frame a message simply and compellingly in order to bounce these jokers. Almost all of the important facts are on our side, especially since the Republicians and the administration has been such an obvious failure by almost all standards?

[demo dutch]

59. There's an all out GOP assault going on all D-candidates in Florida!

[espera17]

60. they are doing a good job at it too

[demo dutch]

61. It's getting dirtier by the day & I can't stand it! I'm sick of the GOP

running this state!

[okieinpain]

62. dems should claim that their ideas on conserving energy are why

gas prices are low, and will go lower if dems are in office.

[espera17]

63. great idea

[samsingh]

64. i really hope so.

[deaniac21]

69. L A N D S L I D E ! ! !