WP: Rhode Island: National GOP Helps Secure Chafee Win

[DeepModem Mom]

Rhode Island: National GOP Helps Secure Chafee Win
By Chris Cillizza


Sen. Chafee addresses supporters at his election night rally in Providence. Chafee defeated challenger Stephen Laffey in a close GOP primary race. (AP Photo)

Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) beat back a strong primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey (R) tonight, a victory for which national Republicans deserve considerable credit.

The Republican National Committee, White House and National Republican Senatorial Committee coordinated on a vast voter identification effort on Chafee's behalf that, combined with sophisticated microtargeting and a big get-out-the-vote operation, won the day for the senator.

Top party operatives used the Chafee primary as a dry-run for the fall -- bringing in activists from across the country to get hands-on experience. And, unlike the base turnout operation during the 2004 presidential campaign, this one was much more focused on driving independents leaning toward Chafee to the polls -- a necessity given the suspicion with which the incumbent was viewed by conservative Republicans.

It worked. With nearly all of the precincts in the state reporting, more votes have been cast in the Chafee-Laffey race than in any other statewide Republican primary in the state's history. The ability of national Republicans to identify and turn out like-minded voters should give those predicting a massive Democratic wave this fall at least some pause. Midterm elections are typically low turnout affairs, and the party best able to motivate its base voters usually wins....

***

Chafee's win improves -- but by no means assures -- Republicans' chances of hold this seat in the fall. Former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) is well-financed and well-known to Rhode Island voters. As of press time, he has also received more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined despite having a non-competitive primary race....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/

[davhill]

1. If Democrats had acted like Republicans

They would have donated big piles of money to the Laffey campaign.

[Erika]

2. Far right wing conservatives are having fits over Chafee being nominated

Let them eat themselves. Enjoy,

[calimary]

31. Doesn't matter. When push comes to shove, they'll come in and

vote for him - anything to keep Harry Reid (or even Hillary) from ascending to Senate Majority Leader - which would happen if the bad guys don't hold onto that "R." They'll hold their noses and turn out for him.

[LSK]

5. why? Chaffee votes with the Dems a lot

Who is this Laffey guy?

[artfan]

10. Laffey

is the mayor of a local town. The GOP does not want him because he is a loose cannon. He is not more liberal than Chaffee he claims he is 'independant' but is more that he is a publicity hound. While still the mayor of Cranston he hosted a radio talk show that was a springboard for his senate run. He used the show to promote himself,his agenda, and pound Chaffee. It was unethical in the extreme.

[Bucky]

8. Meh. It was fun while it lasted. We still have a shot at Chafee.

[sampsonblk]

3. This may be good for us

I won't be the first to suggest this, but Chafee is going to have a tough time this year.

There are big difference between this race and the Lamont race. If Chafee is ever going to lose his seat, this should be the year. Ask Leiberman.

[Erika]

4. The thing is the GOP radical right wing is dead

Bushbots saw Chafee as a traitor, but then Bush himself went out to get Chafee elected.

True schizoids. And they should be trusted with national security? I don't quite think so.

They appear as dysfunctional idiots in search only of power.

[etherealtruth]

20. Not sure I would think of it as Schizoid ... more pragmatic ....

If Lafee were to run in the general election it would almost be assured that they would lose their (repuke) senate seat ... though Chafee is despised by the right, he still labels himself "repuke" and they don't want to lose "control" of the senate.

[The Wizard]

22. What do you mean

appear to be?
Your assessment is far to generous. How about lunatics in search of straight jackets? All right, maybe that's an exaggeration, but could you see them writing letters in crayon? The only people who should be talking to Bushbots are close family members and mental health professionals.

[kentjay]

6. just a forecast of things to come,

we will be in deep trouble if bush holds the house,he will become crazier then he already is,he will call it a mandate and fucking bomb somebody.damn,damn.

[Stevepol]

7. How do these reporters claim to know HOW Chafee won?

Here's what the article says: "The Republican National Committee, White House and National Republican Senatorial Committee coordinated on a vast voter identification effort on Chafee's behalf that, combined with sophisticated microtargeting and a big get-out-the-vote operation, won the day for the senator."

What is the vote-counting method used in RI? If the voting machines had anything to do with it, in all likelihood THAT was the reason for the so-called victory.

It's impossible to know of course, WHICH IS THE ENTIRE POINT. We have a system where the votes are counted in complete secrecy and it's absolutely not possible to have confidence in any election at all. RI may have paper in most precincts but do they have central tabulators to count the total votes? Do they have regular audits if they use optiscan or paper trail DRE's?

Get ready folks. This same story will be repeated a hundred times over in November, and people will be amazed. Here it looked like the Dem would win and Wow the RNC just was able to avert a catastrophe by adroit handling of everything etc. etc. The Dems chance of gaining any seats at all in Nov is at least dubious. I suspect Dems will have a net gain of a seat or two in Congress if that. Nothing more. The chances are about as good that the Repubs will gain seats.

Too many voting machines. Get used to it.

[KnaveRupe]

12. Um.... "Here it looked like the Dem would win"?

Maybe I'm horribly misinformed, but I thought this was the Republican primary. It was "RINO" Chafee vs. "Craz-ass Loose-cannon" Whatsisname. Who was the Dem that looked to be the winner?

Chafee has maintained enough distance from Bush to sway Independent voters who, if I understand correctly, are able to vote in the primaries in RI. As opposed to "wet and sloppy" Joe Lieberman, whose closeness to Bush (smooch!) cost him his primary race in CT.

I'm as concerned as anyone about the problems with voting machines and election fraud, but if we yell "ELECTION FRAUD!!" at every single election regardless of any indications (exit-poll discrepancies, list purges, etc.), we weaken the message.

Look on the bright side - the Right-wingers of the base LOATHE Chafee, and were powerless to oust him. The Bush cabal are so worried about losing seats that they threw an enormous effort at supporting a guy who goes "off the reservation" for them much of the time. Both of these factors bode well for Democrats, for Rhode Island, and America. Will we still have to overcome Election fraud? Yep. But crying wolf doesn't help.

[Dhalgren]

13. Stevepol was saying that this November, after the Dems lose

the pundits would be saying, "Here it looked like the Dem would win and Wow the RNC just was able to avert a catastrophe by adroit handling of everything etc. etc.". It was a prediction of how the Rebups will spin their stealing of another election...

[KnaveRupe]

24. Gotcha.

Upon re-reading Stevepol's post, I see that that was what he meant. My bad, and apologies to Stevepol.

The rest of my post, however, I still think is valid. When it comes to stolen elections, there's WAAAAAYYYY too much accusin' around here, and not enough convincin'. We need to focus our efforts on demonstrable claims,rather than screaming "FRAUD" at every single election.

Again, sorry to Stevepol if I mistakenly lumped him into that hair-trigger bunch. And thanks to you for setting me straight.

:)

[NastyDiaper]

15. Well said.

Green RINO's swerving left, and still getting underground RNC $ is good for the country.

I'm not so sure how good it is for Dems, but kicking the wing-nuts to the curb has to be good overall.

[grizmaster]

17. I worked one of the polling places

Chafee had the only large team of poll observers working the state.

As voters get their ballots their names are called out loud and poll observers can keep track of who has voted so far. Then they report those names back to a central campaign area and other staff calls to remind voters to get to the polls and offers them rides if they need one.

So yes, it was quite clear the impact the extra staff had on turnout.

As to our voting system, it's a paper ballot scan system and is considered one of the most secure and accurate types of systems in the country. And let's not forget, RI is the most democratic state in the country. So the repubs have very little oppportunity to "game" the system.

[Danger Mouse]

9. Ahem.

Let's not be fatalistic. It doesn't help anybody.

[civildisoBDence]

23. It's all about impeachment IMO

A RINO like Chafee (he votes more often with Dems than Reps and has a dismal voting record according to conservatives) is better than a DINO like Leiberman.

Besides, RI is only about 11% registered Republicans, and with the climate in the country I don't see him beating a Democrat. Independents are strongly opposed to Bush...the House is ours, and this lame duck's goose is cooked.

Newsprism

[primative1]

11. Chafee Will Lose ...

He will lose as long as Whitehouse keeps the race nationalized.
Has he been running a campaign against Bush or against Chafee?
I cant see a GOPer carrying RI this time around unless the dems run a bad campaign.
Nothing against Chafee but its time he should just switch parties if he wants to continue in politics.

[Buzz Clik]

14. The GOP cannot see this as a good thing.

Incumbents don't lose primaries. Period. To be forced into spending considerable time and money to win your party's primary is not a good sign.

In addition, the national GOP decided that local dissatisfaction with Chafee was irrelevant.

It's interesting that the GOP was able to pull this off, but should be unsettling for knuckledraggers.

[Canuckistanian]

16. Now the Repubs have a new talking point

"We don't purge our incumbents". Watch for it.

[Deep13]

18. "he has also received more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined "

That's pretty much it for Chafee then. People generally don't change their minds.

[Red State Prisoner]

19. Did you hear about the voting numbers?

The "liberal" media was touting how the RI Republican Primary had the largest voter turnout ever. What they didn't say was that the Democratic Primary had a larger voter turnout than the GOP's. That little detail seemed to slip their memory.

[skipos]

21. A vote for Chaffee is a vote for a Republican senate majority

I hope Whitehouse kicks his ass in November.

[brg5001]

25. Exactly! A vote for Chaffee is a vote for a Republican senate majority

We are going through the same BS with US Rep. Clay Shaw here in Palm Beach County, Florida. He's more conservative than Chaffee, but laughably, Shaw is running as an environmentalist!

How can anyone who votes to put a bunch of wingnuts in charge of committees and the House leadership then trot out a few local issues and advertise himself as an environmentalist, or as pro-consumer?

These are running their own Daytona 500 to distance themselves from Chucklenuts and Darth Vader. We dems need to keep the heat on them. I'm glad that in some cases they are bucking the Repuke establishment but when Frist, Hastert et al are in charge, the lobbyists write the regulations and the executive administrators from coporate America's revolving door get to enforce them. If we can't tie them to Bush, then let's tie them to master diagnostician Dr. Frist and Mr. Earmark himself, Rep. Denny Hastert!

[armodem08]

26. This is actually good news for Dems.

Laffey was far more conservative than Chafee. The fact that Chafee won could mean that conservative voters didn't vote as much as the moderate and independent voters. If Dems have better turnout than the repugs, it will be much easier to win the contested seats.

[m_welby]

28. it means nothing, dems outnumber repubs here 4 to 1

and independants outnumber both dems and repubs.

whtehouse and chafee need to get the independant voters to win this, and that is not an easy task. I expect an interesting race to november.

[brg5001]

32. I see your point, but they have crossover voting in RI

What you have said would make perfect sense if only Repukes could vote in the Repuke primary. But my understanding is that in RI, like some states, anyone can request a Republican ballot for the primary. That's a weird setup to me....Here in Fla, only if one is registered to a particular party can he/she request that party's ballot, which makes more sense. The RI scheme tends to weed out extremes, I suppose, but it doesn't let the membership of the party make a clear choice who THEY want to represent them in the general election...

[grizmaster]

39. In the actual process you have to join the party to vote in the primary

You can affiliate at the poll place right before you vote and then disaffiliate right afterwards. But this doesn't take effect immediately. For the next 90 days you're still carried as a registered member of the party ticket you voted on.

So the RI "scheme" doesn't subvert the party process it just empowers the voter with an ease of choosing which party to be a mamber of.

[brg5001]

33. Love your quote, by the way! Susan B. Anthony was amazing

I just noticed your quote, armodem08. It's so instructive when we go back and read what the REAL freedom-fighters in our history taught us. They were dealing with the exact same prejudices and fears. It's so simple: The God Squad always seem to be in support of the decisions made by...none other than...the God Squad! Isn't THAT a surprise? LOL

[m_welby]

27. ok, a couple things here.

first, the national republican party did not secure the chafee win,. He did that himself. RI voters don't take their cues from the 'national' party (on either side).

second, no one 'fixed' the vote (nor are they going to). there was a record turnout for republicans of @55,000 voters. that's nothing, even here. independants a. hated laffey and the club for growth and b. like chafee and don't feel he should be punished for standing up for his constituents, so laffey was kicked down. yes we have optical scanners, but we at least have the ability for a manual recount at any time, and we have had them on close elections in the recent past.

third, whitehouse is already framed the november election as "chafees seat gives the republicans the majority and that can not continue". The best and smartest way to frame it. Chafee is well liked and respected, demonizing him will not get him very far, but making a reasonable case that "its not chafee it's his party" will win whitehouse the election.

fourth, I fully expect whitehouse to win in november, voters here know the stakes and we know better than anyone else apparently (gw has the lowest approval rating here of any state: 20%).

[grizmaster]

29. I worked a RI polling station

in EP and I agree with you.

One point to add. I'm sure you know we're the most democratic state. Well over 2/3 of the votes at my polling place chose to vote on the repub slate, but more interesting is that nearly 3/4 of those choosing to vote in the repub primary were independents that disaffiliated right after voting.

Combine that with the fact that Whitehouse got more votes than Chafee and Laffey combined with no real competitive seats on the dem primary ticket and it looks like Whitehouse has, for the moment at least, a commanding lead.

[Chico Man]

34. Why did Whitehouse lose to Myrth York?

And how could the dem candidate for gov have lost to a republican? I hope whitehouse runs a better campaign this time around.

[m_welby]

35. because myrth was better known

and the majority of voters do not vote (normally) in primaries. myrth lost to a republican because most RI voters are independant and don't pay too much attention to party labels, especially on the state level. Carcieiri ran a good campaign and is a moderate republican (the only kind we have).

You want a question? why is 90% of the state legislature dem and has been forever. There are barely enough repubs there to fill a minibus.

Why did the people of providence elect (repeatedly) a convicted felon as mayor?

[Chico Man]

36. I'm still worried about Whitehouse

You wouldn't think Rhode Island was the most liberal state looking around my neck of the woods. My rep is Republican (Richard Singleton) an I had several Kerry Signs stolen during 2004... and there were dozens of Bush signs all over the place. I still see lots of w04 stickers around.

It will be an interesting race.. I hope more people learn about what it means to be the majority party...

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

38. Whitehouse did not run a great campaign, too complacent

Also, it was a three way primary, and a lot of dissention amongst the party and the unions who back Dem candidates over that one. Myrth York has a way of getting people on her side, despite the fact she was already a two time loser for the governor's office. I voted for Sheldon that time out (Trust me, had MANY fights with my father, a York supporter, about it) but sadly it didn't pan out.

Myrth would have won until she went negative while comfortably ahead in polls and that was all Rhode Island needs to think that she was a "bitch" (not my personal feeling, just my take on it) and vote for Carcieri.

[sallyseven]

30. Coming from the neighboring state,

I think that Chaffee didn't get the republican vote as much as the independent vote. They will switch and Whitehouse will pick up a lot of new voters. Some of the crap that Laffey threw will stick to Chaffee. Laffey is most likely finished in politics because he is a bad guy and proved it.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

37. Oh please

The Repukes would love to have an idiot like Steve Laffey in the Senate. He'd be worse than Rick Santorum as far as pure ignorance on the social issues...trust me. But they also know they need to hold on to seats even in name only, and Chafee winning gives them a shot at that.

[Art_from_Ark]

41. I believe you're right

If the exact same players had fought it out in, say, Oklahoma, the GOP would have given their full support to Laffey.

[AX10]

40. Whitehouse will win the general.