Bad news out of CT - Lieberman leads by 13%

[nickshepDEM]

Survey USA

Lieberman - 51%
Lamont - 38%
(R) - 7%

The problem:

Most of Lieberman's primary supporters are loyal to him and will vote for him in the general election.

Throw this on top - Lieberman leads 6:1 among Republicans, 3:2 among Independents - and you have a recipe for disaster.

[dorktv]

1. well negative works sadly

[hlthe2b]

2. the Dem leadership are still straddling the fence...

It is time for the big guns to come out and campaign for Lamont... Cut bait and run!

[madfloridian]

4. Would you call Dean, Reid, Hillary big guns? I do.

And the smaller guns like DFA are there also.

[hlthe2b]

20. I wasn't clear... Yes, of course, Clinton, Reid, Dean are

showing support.... but I think they and others need to go ALL OUT and not worry about not burning bridges with Lieberman on the chance he wins. I do think that they have much more to offer (including bringing in Big Dog Bill and pouring more money into the campaign), but to do this they have to let the chips fall where they may...

[madfloridian]

3. Lamont's got a good team, and powerful Dems behind him.

I understand he is getting offices going now in some areas.

Lieberman should be ashamed of what he is doing. He is the disaster. He has become in effect a Republican stooge.

[aquart]

5. Registered voters? Likely voters? 20-something voters?

Haul every college kid in CT into the polls and I don't care if they're kicking and screaming.

[wiley]

6. We'll see. Although Lieberman may have already made the deal.

Funny how gracious and supportive the losers of even the fiercest Democratic primary races have been. I guess Lieberman considers himself "above" Democracy.

[wiley]

19. Another Great One

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KMaPnFVCao&NR

[madfloridian]

7. Lieberman is accepting Republican money, he will owe them.

This is no shame to Lamont. If Lieberman wins it will be a sad victory for the party. There will be no way to put good face on it.

[ClusterFreak]

14. Even more sadly...

...Rove will find a way to earn his Turd Blossom monicker once more.

[w4rma]

8. Lamont has pulled to within margin of error. LIE leads by 3.9 points.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

[nickshepDEM]

11. Zogby 'ineractive' polls are about as scientific as DU polls.

The are, in a nutshell, email surveys sent out to whoever wants to take them. No verification of party, state, etc...

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Out of curiosity, why does the Wall Street Journal publish them?

I agree with what you are saying that the Zogby Interactive polls are complete crap, but the Wall Street Journal does publish Zogby polls. Are they the interactive ones or ones that are done by accurate methods of polling.

Also, Rasmussen puts Connecticut a lot closer. Given that Rasmussen is a right winger I don't exactly know what to think of this.

[karynnj]

33. Maybe to damage any credibility polling might still have

I agree with you -the methodology of taking all who sign up and then applying demographics can really be pretty bad. First, even when allocated to appropriate cells, the assumption that people on-line reading political information are representative of all the people in their cell is crazy. That you can email the survey to your friends and they will be included will exasperate this.

These were interactive polls.

[NVMojo]

9. that's got to be rigged, Nevada's gops are also out in front suddenly

about that far...

[madfloridian]

10. Well, after all, one of Lieberman's pollsters is charged with fraud.

He worked for Bush also. I have several articles if anyone missed it.

[Catrina]

29. I saw that too. So I wouldn't believe anything

the polls say at this point. And CT doesn't use machines, so it'll be harder to cheat there, not to say they won't try.

That Lieberman pollster also worked for Bush. He was convicted of fraud, of fixing the polls. Makes you wonder why Lieberman was using a GOP pollster six years ago.

[Erika]

12. If Lieberman had any honor, he'd quit

Heard the GOP guys on Faux News say they would vote for Joe. One said he'd vote for Joe above his GOP nominee. Joe would be tainted for life.

[ClusterFreak]

13. Say what you will...

...no one follows the unprincipled dictates of their bloviating leadership better than the sheep-like rethuglican base. At least dems can say they parted ways with Holy Joe on principle.

Unbelievable shit. No, scratch that. Par for the course from the Reich wing.

[madfloridian]

15. I blame the congressional dems for holding out the carrot....

that he would retain his seniority. Now he is accepting republican money, they are screwed.

They should stand up and stop catering to him. He is being a real bastard.

[hlthe2b]

22. You just made the point I tried to earlier...

Yes... they need to go after Liarman and not look back...

[madfloridian]

23. You are right.

Don't let him try blackmail on us or whatever you call it.

[madfloridian]

16. Those polled....I thought CT was more blue than this.

Filtering: 1,000 Connecticut adults were interviewed 9/9/06 - 9/11/06. Of them, 857 were registered to vote. of them, 572 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

Well, actually only 572 likely voters.

[quiet.american]

17. Any data from any other polls? n/t

[madfloridian]

18. Others have been closer.

I don't have links right now. But closer. This one seems way out, and Lamont is just getting moving.

[madfloridian]

21. Then Bush will appoint him to something...empty seat...appointment

This is a shameful thing for Lieberman to be doing, no matter what the outcome. He is thumbing his nose at all of us in the party.

It will come back to haunt him.

[Tiggeroshii]

24. This will mean that the Democrats need to gain 7 seats to assure they

...maintain a majority if they gain one. Just in case this guy completely turns on us or gets picked as the new defense secretary.

[Nutmegger]

25. Shit, shit, shit.

If the Dems can come up and campaign for LIEberman, then they can come up for Lamont.

Where the hell are they?

I hope that Mody concert happens.

[Bryan]

26. Granted, it's Zogby Online, but have these numbers been weighted properly

...relative to the number of Republicans who say they're going to vote for Lieberman but don't actually give a shit? Very different results might be in the offing...

[jobycom]

27. Has he been asked which party he will vote for?

In the Senate, he will have to choose whether to vote for a Democratic or Republican Leader, committee appointments, rules, etc. He will have to vote with one party or the other.

That would be critical. I wonder how many Repub voters would support him if he would vote for Harry Reid, knowing he is (or has so far been) pro-choice. I wonder how many Dem primary supporters would vote for him if he would vote for Frist or Lott.

That would seem to be Lamont's best tactic--make Lieberman take sides to drive one party away from him.

[fooj]

28. Lieberman is a fraud. So are those #'s.

A pollster he is connected to just plead GUILTY, yes?

I call bullshit.

[Lexingtonian]

30. this fight hasn't even begun

Basically, Lieberman can't gain and can only lose support. He has all the voters he's going to get now, and the voters he loses now will not return.

Lamont has the party identification and party machinery advantage. And this is going to be a violent negative campaign for at least a brief period of time.

Lamont can poison Lieberman support among Republicans, for one thing, based on Joe's run for VP yet general cowardice. Then there's the whole slew of minor Iraq votes that Joe ducked and other derelictions, hypocrisies, and corruptions that will sink him with Indies when exposed.

Last of all, the campaigns in which an incumbent is knocked off tend to be ugly, expensive, and very often result in photo finish 51/49 outcomes. That's the nature of the beast.

[Mass]

32. This poll has 3 % of undecided for a race that will take place in 7 weeks

Not reliable at all. They pushed undecided to answer and it is way too early.

[Jacobin]

34. To tell you the truth, running that idiot out of the party was worth it

to me, at least.

His warmongering crap is so over the top I don't want him in the party. Period. Maybe it can be a lesson to others tempted to get on the PNAC bandwagon, that they will have a very rough time.