Today's Senate Projection: 50-50

[Dob Bole]

Dems lead in 4/5 races in the South.

Now, if McCaskill could regain her lead, Menendez could hold his seat, and Jack Carter get out of the hospital...imagine the possibilities.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[LynneSin]

1. I'd make that 51-49

Kean has not been polling ahead of Menendez in New Jersey. I've been hearing the opposite from the local papers in New JErsey

[mmonk]

2. Is that counting Lieberman as a winning democrat?

[skipos]

9. He said he will caucus with the Democrats

and even though the guy is a turd, he will probably keep his word.

[gasperc]

17. yeah, rigggggggggggght sure he will

I'll bet my left nut on that one

[mmonk]

18. And let more rightwing judges on the courts or fight

inquiries into the administration or support more Orwellian solutions? Sorry if I don't trust him.

[Cosmocat]

24. Here is the thing ...

Lieberman is ALL about Lieberman right now ...

If he loses, he WILL reemerge as republican ... But, I don't see him caucusing with the republicans if he wins, cause he knows he is just being pimped right now ... He is no fool ... The moment he goes to the the right side of the isle in the senate, and the sheen wears off in a few months, they will bump him to the back of the line ... They will be all puffy about how they are so bipartisan for a few months, then bury the guy ... NO WAY any of the Rs let him jump over them in status ... He will be like a freshman senator all over again, he AIN'T going to be cool with that ...

Also, once he steps back, he is going to see that he potentially is riding the very tail end of a big wave, a wave that might crash ... NO certainty that the Rs will have some kind of cabinet position or something to throw at him down the road ... The country is up for grabs right now, and very easily could break back to the left ,...

I don't "trust" him as much as I see his ego ... He will do WHATEVER he needs to do to get reelected, then do what is in his best interests for the next 6 years ...

[skipos]

26. I agree with you guys, Lieberman is for Lieberman

But I don't think he wants to be a republican. He likes the attention he gets being an "independent Democrat." Also, if he switched to an "R" he would never get elected in CT again. If Lieberman wins, I think he will keep his word on caucusing with the Democrats. But that doesn't change the fact that Lamont should win that seat.

[Lasher]

3. Yep, that's what the latest polls say

Morning, Dob.

Menendez has regained a very slight lead in his bid to retain the New Jersey seat, 40.4 to 40.2. I've already had 2 strokes over that race so far.

The 5 pickups right now are Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.

Does this square up with your tally?

There was a good discussion of the Senate races here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2821753

Here's a good website for election junkies like us:

http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/

[LA lady]

4. I followed this guy daily in 2004!

He is counting Lieberman and Sanders as Dem's.

Virginia is probably going to go back to Allen; he had a HUGE endorsement yesterday.

New Jersey is SCARY! What is going on there?

I am optimistic but I think he is too optimistic!

[karynnj]

5. For some reason polling has been flakier here than elsewhere

Near the 2005 election, the polls showed a very rapid fall in Corzine's numbers. As there was a very negative personal story out, there was reason for concern - but he won by double digits.

The Senate race still has a large undecided. These are likely people who know little about both men running. NJ has voters who will consider who controls the Senate - in 2002, polls that asked more detailed questions than usual showed that many people who strongly diasaproved of Torrecelli were gowing to hold their noses and vote for him - rather than elect a Republican.

[Lasher]

6. Both independents would caucus with Democrats

With due respect to concerns about Benedict Lieberman selling us out, both these seats are being counted as Democrats according to conventional wisdom.

[LA lady]

7. Yes, but...

Would they allow the Democrats to take over chairmanships, tho? I don't think so.

[Lasher]

14. See my reply below to Husb2Sparkly

I don't know what the situation is with Osborn.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. I have NO confidence Lieberman will caucus with the Dems

Sorry to all his supporters here, but he's jumped the ego shark. I see him caucusing with the Repubs.

[skipos]

11. I am a Lamont supporter, but

I doubt Lieberman will go back on his word. He promised to caucus with the Dems.

[Lasher]

13. You might be right, Clown Dude

But like I said, most people figure he's going to caucus with Democrats so I'm just going with that when I tally the score. After all, we are talking about opinion polls and that's what most people think.

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if Lieberman sold himself to the highest bidder if he wins in the General election - but I think it is more likely he will caucus with Democrats. He does have a good liberal voting record overall but he is motivated by his unusually strong desire for attention. And so, if Senate Democrats don't give him a committee chairmanship or if they penalize him in other ways, I say he'll react by turning to the dark side for a better deal.

[Stinky The Clown]

15. Lasher .... OT side question for you ......

..... what's that ribbon in your avatar?

[Lasher]

20. Couldn't find it on any ribbon charts, could you?

It is the Korea Defense Service Medal. I rotted in Seoul for 13 months, mostly in 1970. The KDSM was not authorized until 2DEC02, but was made retroactive to 28JUL54. Retroactivity is not uncommon in cases of military medal eligibility.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korea_Defense_Service_Medal

Qualified active duty soldiers were awarded the medal at the initiative of the DOD, but veterans need to submit a copy of their DD214 to get it. I suppose most Korean vets don't know the KDSM is available.

I'm not a combat veteran but I do have some other medals. But here I am, 57 years old and I was just awarded a military medal this year. That's one reason why I have been flaunting the KDSM here.

If you run across a qualified vet who wants help in applying for the KDSM, send them my way.

Lasher

[Stinky The Clown]

27. Thanks!

The only Korea vets I know were there prior to '54.

Actually, there might be one .... my son's friend's dad.

[SteppingRazor]

25. I think there's no chance of him caucusing with Republicans...

and that's BECAUSE of his ego, not in spite of it. Basically, if Lieberman wins this election, I don't see him retiring in 2012 -- he faces another election. If he caucuses with the Republicans, he's doomed in Democratic-heavy Connecticut. He has to caucus with Democrats to keep his own political career alive.

[w4rma]

28. Allen is toast. I live in Virginia. He's a goner. He's riding on fumes.

People didn't like Allen to begin with, really, here in Virginia and his Macaca statement gave folks the final push to decide that they aren't going to vote for him, either.

I've always said that his support was wide and shallow. And it is.

[LA lady]

29. Did you hear this?

I used to live in Richmond, Lambert's pretty influential.

Black Democrat Says He Will Back Allen, Not Webb

By Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, September 13, 2006; Page B05

RICHMOND, Sept. 12 -- A senior Democratic state lawmaker endorsed Republican Sen. George Allen's bid for reelection Tuesday, after having earlier criticized Democrat James Webb's position on affirmative action.

State Sen. Benjamin J. Lambert III (Richmond), who is black, praised Allen in a letter on his senate stationery released yesterday by the Allen campaign.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/12/AR2006091201541.html

[w4rma]

30. That crap doesn't matter. The vast majority of African-Americans are very

politically savvy.

[Stinky The Clown]

8. Pick a poll - get a result ...... the numbers are ever changing ... BUT ..

.... let's step back a second and look at trends.

In the hot races:

Ford was the underdog in Tennessee on every poll just a month ago. Now he's shown is even or leading on many polls. That trend favors us and I think it'll hold.

Similarly in Virginia. Webb has been surging without even really campaigning very much. Actually, it is better to say that Felix is imploding. Low on cash, I suspect Webb's saving it for later. But with Felix cutting his own number quite nicely, Webb gets to wait a bit more before spending. I also expect some serious national money to flow to Webb. I think this trend favors us more each day and, as in Tennessee, I think it'll hold. The antimacacas are not going to go back to Felix.

New Jersey's a worry, but in the end, I think Menendez will prevail. Kean is just so obviously dumb there's no way he wins. (If you've seen him on teevee, you have to agree he makes that proverbial box of rocks look like a Rhodes Scholar.) Besides, there's a huge disparity among the polls in this race. Many show a Menendez lead, while fewer show a Kean lead. Menendez in a squeaker - and that alone shifts this poll's overall numbers to 49/R and 51/D

The real wild card is Lieberman. He gets to be the king maker and holds extraordinary unearned, undeserved power. If he wins, with whom will he caucus? I don't trust the fucker as far as I could throw him. He could flip everything back to the Repubs by caucusing with them. So we have to win one more to get the insurance and make Joe as meaningless as we can.

And that would be McCaskill in Missouri. I think that's quite doable. Again, this poll shows her down, but a number of others show her as being ahead. If she wins, Joe doesn't matter.

[Jersey Devil]

12. The thought is awful! Joe the most powerful man in the Senate

and that's exactly what he'd be if his caucus vote makes the difference. It makes me cringe.

[Lasher]

22. But think what would happen in 2 years if Democrats gain more seats

Then Senate Democrats just might strip him of everything - and in that case Republicans would be much less inclined to offer him anything substantial, just to get one more seat in their caucus - but not a majority.

[Lasher]

16. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Napoleon Bonaparte said that and I think he must have been thinking about the Virginia Senate race.

I couldn't agree more about momentum being on our side. It wasn't that long ago that regaining control of the Senate was just a foolish hope. Now it's just overly optomistic. By November it might just be classified as reality. Time is our friend.

[Ignacio Upton]

19. MD-Sen: Cardin also beat Mfume in Maryland:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2428964


I know that 100% of the precincts haven't been counted yet, but a Mfume win is very unlikely at this point, as he is eight points behind with 93% of the precincts counted.


I would say that MD leans our way now, as Cardin will be the stronger candidate against Steele. His main problem, however, will be to convince black voters who might defect to Steele, to support him. Steele is also loaded with cash, as he didn't need to spend money on a contentious primary.

[Totally Committed]

21. All the more reason for us to elect a Democratic ticket in '08...

and, therefore, nominate a real (as in one that can WIN and one that is IDEOLOGICALLY UNABLE to ever vote with the Republicans) ticket and work our butts off to see they are elected ticket. The VP on that ticket will become the 51st Senator for our side, and the one who will be called to break any tie in the voting.

We need this badly!

TC

[SteppingRazor]

23. I'd rule Carter out of that analysis...

his campaign was already losing badly, even before he went into the hospital. The health issues are the nail in the coffin.

I've had the Senate at 50-50 in my own analysis for a while now, though due to various factors (vacillating between a Missouri or a Tennessee win, and so on). I think our best hope is for Menendez to hold onto the seat, and win all the ones stated at the Web site you posted -- assuming that Allen doesn't have a resurgence in VA as the macaca slips down the memory hole.

[Lasher]

31. This just in: McCaskill regains lead in Missouri

Claire McCaskill now has a 45 to 42 lead over Republican incumbent Jim Talent in the Missouri Senate race according to latest polls.

Republican challenger Thomas Kean, Jr. leads Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez 44 to 40 according to a 9/10/06 Strategic Vision poll.

According to the latest polls of all races there are now six Democratic pickups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee.

With one Republican pickup currently projected in New Jersey, that leaves a net Democratic gain of five seats - still one seat shy of a majority.

[Hawkeye-X]

32. LynnSin is right about NJ

It'll be a 51-49 Dem majority, and what's more, I think it'll be a 7 seat pickup.

Follows as such: MO, MT, VA, TN, PA, OH, and RI. With long shots for NV and AZ.

NJ and CT holds for Dems.

VT caucuses with Dems

It *may* be 52-48 majority for the Democrats.

And will increase in '08 when 75% of the Repukes suddenly decides to retire rather to face ethics and treason charges.

Hawkeye-X

[Lasher]

36. OK, I'll make a prediction of the final outcome

Here's what I think it will look like after the November elections:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Olvwmbh5TL8

[Doctor_J]

33. 49 dem today

still counting NJ as GOP

[Lasher]

34. Nope, it's 50-50

Please see post 31.

[Doctor_J]

38. I don't have to. I click on the link

and the headline says 49-51. Although both are equally useless come January

[Lasher]

39. You are correct, you don't have to

Votefromabroad.org is a good source of information but I don't consider any one site to be gospel. In this particular case the web site in question still shows Talent with a 48 to 45 lead in the Missouri Senate race, citing the 9/5/06 WSJ/Zogby poll

As I noted in post 31 of this thread, however, Claire McCaskill has regained the lead in the more recent 9/11/06 poll that was conducted by Rasmussen. That's a significant change that has not yet been accounted for by the source that you cite.

It's 50-50 today, just like I said.

[SPCAworks]

35. I still can't see

a victory in Va, Mt, Mo...

We can't relax.

A Kean victory in NJ would offset a pickup in Pa.

I personally believe DEMS end up with 48, and take the Senate in 2008, but House goes DEM THIS year.

[Lasher]

37. Gives ya chest pains, don't it?

We have the momentum. We're in better shape than we were a month ago. We'll be even better off in another month. The force is with us.