Wisconsin Poll - University of Wisconsin

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry with 33 point on Dean as of February 3rd.


Univ. of Wis. 1/27-2/3 MoE5%

Kerry 45%
Dean 12%
Clark 11%
Edwards 6%
Lieberman 4%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 1%
other 3%
undecided 15%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Full report at:

http://www.wisc.edu/uwsc/badg131.pdf

[hellhathnofury]

1. Mile wide, inch deep.

[blm]

4. So you want to believe.

But, apparently not, because he is really getting solid support that is increasing NOT decreasing as some other whose support is OBVIOUSLY inch wide and a mile deep.

[Monte Carlo]

5. Maybe, maybe not.

People may have flocked to Kerry quickly and unexpectedly, and they can leave just as quickly, but it is also possible that a few of his potential voters will read about him and his history and like what they see. He is more liberal than Ted Kennedy, they say.

[Old and In the Way]

14. Actually, respectfully disagree.

It was quick, but not at all unexpected. I think a lot of Democrats were pro-Kerry to begin with, but early on he was not getting a lot of positive press and the initial start-up of his campaign was rather rough. As a result, many of his supporters were keeping thier options open or considering other candidates. When the campaign did ignite, it drew a lot more core supporters back in immediately and the timing of the surge carried him through Iowa and NH. Of all the candidates, Kerry has been, by far, the longest in the public eye. He is fully vetted and his career reflects a highly accomplished and well rounded individual.

[TheDonkey]

7. yep

So much that he is storming the Democratic primary while Dean who once had the media and money in his bag is lathered in butter he's so toast.

[Nicholas_J]

21. Try Michigan, Ohio, California, and the rest of the states

that are coming up within the next month that have Kerry polling in the high 40's in all races except two, Virginia and Tennessee, and even in thise polls he is in the low thirtys and ahead of the other cnadidates by more than the margins of error:


In Michigan:

Zogby International 2/3-4 MoE 4.1%

Kerry 47%
Dean 10%
Edwards 8%
Clark 4%
Sharpton 2%
Kucinich 1%
undecided 23%

Mitchell Research & Communications Inc

2/3-5 5%

Kerry 52%
Dean 9%
Edwards 8%
Clark 4%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 2%
other 2%
undecided 21%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm


Virginia

Survey USA 1/27-29 3.3%

Kerry 32%
Clark 17%
Edwards 17%
Dean 14%
Sharpton 9%
other 6%
undecided 5%


Wisconsin

Univ. of Wis. 1/27-2/3 MoE 5%

Kerry 45%
Dean 12%
Clark 11%
Edwards 6%
Lieberman 4%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 1%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Ohio

Survey USA 1/31-2/2 MoE 3.9%

Kerry 44%
Dean 15%
Edwards 13%
Kucinich 7%
Clark 6%
Sharpton 5%
Lieberman 4%
other 3%
undecided 4%
other 3%
undecided 15

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Washington

Kerry 40%
Dean 13%


Stuart Elway 1/27-29 MoE 5.5

Tennessee

Survey USA 1/31-2/2 3.9%

Kerry 31%
Clark 26%
Edwards 20%
Dean 15%
other 6%
undecided 3%

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

California

Survey USA 1/31-2/2 MoE 4.0%

Kerry 49%
Dean 18%
Edwards 12%
Clark 8%
other 9%
undecided 5%

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html


Most of these primaries or caucuses fall within the next five days, and Kerry has an enormous lead in most of them, and solid leads in both southern states that are coming up on Tuesday.

Hardly a mile wide and an inch deep when in most polls Kerry is getting half of the votes out of six candidates. If his support is a mile wide and an inch deep, the depth of the support for other candidates must be measured in microns or angstrom units.

[bowens43]

26. Is that worse then an inch wide a mile deep?

[blm]

2. On Wisconsin.

.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. On CNN, Dean described his WI email as a 'ploy'

so I wouldn't get your hopes up about him dropping out after he loses Wisconsin.

[maddezmom]

6. what do mean a ploy?

a ploy for what? money or media coverage? don't get it.

[Uzybone]

8. He is grasping at straws

everything ...every huge loss will be described a s aploy. Its all part of a plan will be the spin.

[Straight Shooter]

9. There is a thread on DU about the "ploy"

The entire political discourse hangs on buzz words, it seems.

A shame that Dean hasn't had media training as Kerry has. But then again, he's just a physician with governor experience, not a career politician.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. Dean said it, not me.

So I don't want to characterize what he meant. But the email was a fundraising appeal:

Dear Supporter,

The entire race has come down to this: we must win Wisconsin. We must launch our new television advertisement on Monday in the major markets in Wisconsin. To do that, I need your help to raise $700,000 by Sunday. Please contribute today so that we can reserve the air time:

http://www.deanforamerica.com/wisconsinad

We will get a boost this weekend in Washington, Michigan and Maine, but our true test will be the Wisconsin primary. A win there will carry us to the big states of March 2-and narrow the field to two candidates. Anything less will put us out of this race.

All that you have worked for these past months is on the line on a single day, in a single state. We have come so far to change our political process and restore our democracy-we can't stop now. Your contribution will allow us to get out our message onto the airwaves, and win Wisconsin.

Thank you,

Governor Howard Dean, M.D.

So you can judge for yourself what Dean meant when he called it a 'ploy'.

[Nicholas_J]

24. If its a ploy to win

It not working well. Later ARG polls have Dean dropping from 2nd place in Wisconsin to 4th.

American Research Group 2/4-6 MoE 4%

Kerry 41%
Clark 15%
Edwards 10%
Dean 9%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 2%
undecided 21

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wi/

Eight day until Wisconsin. It is extremely unlikely for Dean to come back. A week before all of the primaries and caucuses to date and the winner was predicted in every polls so far. It was jsut the details of how many point that changed.

[Jerseycoa]

10. Be nice

if Clark can come in second in Wisconsin.

GO WES!!

[Monte Carlo]

11. I think the big question is will these people stay the course for Kerry?

This flood of people polling for Kerry (unless they are all wrong) came quickly, and easy come, easy go. There is no guarantee they'll stay with him until Mar. 2.

Hopefully, once at least a few of his suporters start reading up on him and his history (his name was No. 1 on Google's search list not too far back), they might see someone who is smart and experienced, who knows how the machine in Washington works, who has a record of doing the right thing, and can maybe inspire them a little bit.

[Nicholas_J]

22. SInce Iowa

his polls numbers have been going up. Since South Carolina, his poll number have been rising even further in the primaries and caucuses that are coming up within the next few days and the next few weeks.

Every pollster has indicated that the primary factor in this democratic selection is electability and clear support all across the nation, and not someone who has support in one region of the country, but little elsewhere. While Edwards won big in South Carolina, he is coming in at 4th place in every other race outside of the South. Winning the south is a bad strategy, as Bush is strongest there. All that is needed is the ability to compete in a few states in the south, and win big everywhere else, and everywhere wlse that Kerry is getting large democratic primary polling numbers, in polls werre he is also placed against Bush asking democrats, republicans, and independents, Kerry Beats busn hot by a small percentage, but by as much as 7 percent in some of those states. No one else does this, not even Clark, who comes withing a statistical margin of Bush but still falls below Bush. Both Edwards and Dean are beaten by Bush by more than the statistical margins.


To take the White House, you need to win, and in polls where Kerry wins, they are asking all of theAmerican electorate who they want to win in 2004, and who they beleive will win in 2004. In all polls Kerry is the only candidate who te public want and beleive will beat Bush. Including Republicans and Independents.

[westcoastbias]

12. Anyone but Kerry

I would take Dean, Edwards or Clark over Kerry.

[MariaS]

13. I wouldn't bet the Farm

on Kerry winning WI. My hopes lay with the people of WI to do the right thing and vote for Clark. He has the backing of our Lt. Gov Barb Lawton and former Gov. Gaylord Nelson among many others. Sunday Clark is appearing with current Gov. Doyle in Racine and hopefully the letters that many have sent to Doyle will convince Doyle to officially throw his support behind the General. I along with many are working our hearts out for Wes Clark here. If WI goes for a plastic politician like Kerry or Edwards I will be not only extremely disappointed but also very shocked.

Clark's Endorsements in Wisconsin

Elected & Former Elected State & Federal Officials

The Hon. Barbara Lawton (Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor)
The Hon. Gaylord Nelson (Former Wisconsin Governor & U.S. Senator)
Bert Grover (Former State Superintendent of Public Schools)
Rep. Spencer Black (Former Assembly Democratic Leader)
Sen. Bob Jauch (Former Senate Democratic Leader)
Former Sen. Rod Moen (Former Senate Asst. Majority Leader)
Former Rep. Barbara Notestein (Milwaukee)
Former Secretary of State and Civil Rights Leader Vel Phillips (Milwaukee)
Former Rep. Rosemary Potter (Milwaukee)
Rep. Marlin Schneider (Former Assembly Asst. Majority Leader)
Rep. Lena Taylor (Milwaukee)
Rep. Dave Travis (Former Assembly Majority Leader)
Former Rep. Jim Wahner (Former Assembly Majority Leader)

Elected & Former Elected County, City & Local Officials

Eve Galanter (Former President, Madison City Council)
Joe Parisi (Dane County Clerk)
Joe Sensenbrener (Former Madison Mayor)
Paul Soglin (Former Madison Mayor)

Current and Former Democratic Party Leaders

Eve Galanter (Former State Party Exec. Dir.)
Jerry Greenfield (Former Racine Co. Chair)
Susan Greenfield (Caledonia Town Chair)
Wisconsin Community Leaders
Nino Amato (Madison)
Lauren Azar (Madison)
Nan Chaney (Madison)
F. M. "Mike" Fitzpatrick (Green Bay)
Julilly Kohler (Milwaukee)
Nick Ladopolous (Middleton)
John Raihala (Madison)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. I wish we could bet on primary results at DU.

I would have already made a fortune!

[jmaier]

19. Not since Iowa

Your odds would have been too low -- though you certainly wouldn't have LOST any money! :-)

[Nicholas_J]

25. The polls have been overwhelmingly on the money

This year, they are all being extremely careful, as they want to knock Zogby from his seat, and pick up the money that comes from accurate polling that comes later through big businesses. Zogby sarted in 1999 and it was his prediction of a Bush electoral win in 2000 that made him the most highly paid pollster in the country. The other pollsters all want to take that action from Zogby, who seems to have been resting on his laurels this year up until recently.

ARG has been almost right on the money with their polls matching almost exactly the results of every campiagn so far.

[Auntie Bush]

17. Hey! Clark is only 1 % behind Dean! n/t

[mitchum]

18. Ooops, this had slipped off of the front page

back there now

Kerry 2004

[GalleryGod]

20. Does the term "Little Big Horn" have a familiar ring to it?

go get 'em Dr. Custer! Once more into the breech,verily I say!
Cry havoc! Unleash the dogs of war:hangover: :nopity: :nuke:

"OH...Fuhgeddaboutit"

Your man in the Faculty Offices, Waitin' on the Sopranos,:smoke:
G.G.

[adadem]

23. LOL n/t

[Perky]

27. The Fat Lady is warming up.

Edward and Clark fall by the wayside tomorrow.
Dean will pull out after WIsconsin.