GOP "comeback." I'm sick of tbe pundits creating these narratives.

[Armstead]

Sampling the news yesterday was very depressing.

The same pundits who a week ago were saying that it looked like the Democrats would take back at least one of the houese of Congress have changed their tune. Now the race is "tightening" and the GOP is resurgent. Bush is going up in the polls and Republican candidates are tightening the races.

Why? Because Bush made a few fucking speeches to "remind" us of the dangers of terrorism and how we have to fight it in Iraq. After all, according to the media nitwits, the GOP is superior on national security and people trust Bush's handling of the war on terror. The anniversary of 9-11 reinforced that. ...Gas prices have come down (although still at a level that would have been outrageous two years ago)...The Democrats are weak and vacillating....etc.etc.etc.

Bleuch. The problem with all of this is that the nation relies on a handful of elite nitwits in the media to write the narrative of politics. And those nitwits are like trained seals. They imitate each other rather than actually thinking.

And almost all of them dutifully react in the programmed way that people like Karl Rove want them to....They may think they're independent, but by accepting what the GOP says and does at face value, they are merely creating the reality that the GOP wants them to.

A classic example is how the threat of terrorism was pushed back onto center stage since late summer. I will bet you $100 that Americans feel less safe today than they did four months ago -- And for no reason other than GOP political strategy and media compliance with it.

And the upshot is that even though the administration has screwed up our foreign policy, made the world less safe and took us into a devestating needless war, the pundits tell us that Americans "trust Bush" which will help the GOP retain power in November.

And -- worse yet -- while tens of millions of Americans are without healthcare, jobs and productive capacity contiunue to hemmorage overseas, corporate monopolization continues, the pundits tell us the election is only about terorism and national security, which improves the chances of the GOP.

It's all a bunch of BUNK. It's just like how Al Gore's "stiffness" was the major issue in 2000, according to these same idiots.

Oh Lord, deliver us from mindless pundits.

[Vickers]

1. Omigosh, the ruling party is making a comeback?!?!?!?!?!?!

:eyes:

[whistle]

2. Bush/Cheney have another terror attack on America planned very soon

....and timed to boost poll ratings just before election day

[acmejack]

3. Back to the US, back to the US, back to the USSR!

In other news the Citizens reelected the ruling party by a landslide 99% majority! The dissidents supporting the appeasers of the minority party were swiftly rounded up and deported.

[Cassandra]

4. Doughy Pantload is obviously a day late.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-goldberg14sep14,0,4748614.column?coll=la-opinion-rightrail

""......I can't bring myself to actually quote this jackass aka Jonah Goldberg.

[TayTay]

5. Let's step into the way back machine for a second

Look at this article from 12 years ago tomorrow. Pundits are not always right.

BALTIMORE MORNING SUN, 09-15-1994
By THEO LIPPMAN JR.

WILL REPUBLICANS take control of the Senate and/or the House of Representatives in November's elections?

...


My guess -- oops, prediction -- for the Senate in the 104th Congress is a gain of five or at most six Republicans. Republican candidates are very strong in these eight states where a Democrat now holds the seat: Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Oklahoma and Arizona.

Republicans now hold 44 seats, so a net gain of eight would make Bob Dole majority leader. But some Democrat(s) will survive in those states, and a Democrat could replace a Republican in one of these states: Minnesota, North Dakota, Wyoming. A Republican net gain of six makes the Senate 51-50 Democratic with the vice president's tie-breaker. Close, but no cigars -- or committee chairmanships.

My prediction for the House is 199 Republicans and 236 Democrats (plus 1 Independent). That's a Republican gain of 21 seats -- a somewhat lower number than many political activists, officeholders and pundits predict.

bzzzzt, thank you for trying, but wrong answer. The press doesn't know anything. They are all guessing right now.

[Armstead]

8. Bzzt....That wasn;t my point

I didn't say the press knows anything. I said they try to create the narrative in a very superficial way, rather than fill the actual role of journalists and analysts.

They might be wrong when they describe this so-called comeback. I hope so.

But the point is that they all trumpet the same line, and behave as though they are the voice of the nation. That's the problem with "horse race" coverage. Complex issues and trends get boiled doiwn into simplistic nonsense.

I seriously doubt, for example, many people have actually changed their opinions over the last several weeks.

But the problem is that by shaping the overall perceptions, the media pundits try to drive political trends, rather than simply reporting on them.

[TayTay]

10. And it's not working

We haven't had the press for years. The polls still show the Rethugs tanking. It's not working.

[TankLV]

25. No comparisons to last times - they have DIEBOLD now...

It doesn't matter who vote for whom, it matter who COUNTS the votes...

[annabanana]

17. woof. . . they have their marching orders..

The fax machine is cranking out the talking points at top speed...

[AX10]

26. True.

[blm]

6. This was the set up all along - Make it seem as if they gave Dems the

chance, but the Dems blew it. How many times did you hear the storyline that Dems have no plan at the very time that Dems were submitting solid solutions?

Kerry, Murtha or Dean could be on a show one day laying out a direction and the very next day that same show would say "Why are Dems afraid to speak out with their own plans?"

It's been malicious neglect of the facts for 6 years now - Katrina was unspinnable, but the red light is back on and corpmedia whores are back in business.

[Armstead]

9. I'm not sure they are that smart

What you describe is certainly the Rove script. And too many pundits follow that.

But rather than a concerted plan by the media, I think it's more that they are lazy shallow idiots who take everything at face value, and listen to each other rather than actually thinking or digging deep.

So if a Rove hands them a script to use, they are happy to oblige by parrotting it.

[blm]

11. Their producers DO KNOW and are fully cognizant of how Rove wants it to

play out. The talking heads roll with it as scripted by their producers.

[droidamus2]

7. They have to

If they want to steal another election they have to make it seem at least plausible. By doing the things are tightening line they can steal a bunch of seats and then claim that public sentiment was moving in their direction before the election and in the last few days before went to their side. Of course, anybody that would believe that people who had a particular view for most of the last two years would all of a sudden change in the last 2 weeks before an election need to think again. Recently I have come to the conclusion that because the Republicans have been working their program for at least 30 years and we suspect stealing elections for the last 12 that any 'common knowledge' of elections should be questioned. I am not claiming that all of it is wrong but the idea that things 'always tighten just before the election', local incumbents win even if the national temperament is to throw them out, anything that polls claim as far as who the voters support, etc. should all be questioned. Have we just been conditioned to accept these ideas without any questioning or are they factual. Remember as far as the neo-cons are concerned it doesn't matter whether it is right/wrong or false/true as long as they can sell the public on the idea. To paraphrase one of the neo-cons 'there is no reality except the reality we create' (talking about the echo chamber and spin doctors ability to make people believe lies are facts)

[ClassWarrior]

12. Ignore them and work even harder to get Dems and Progressives elected.

At least if they're pushing this theme, our side won't run the risk of getting complacent.

NGU.

[Armstead]

16. Good point....Complacency may be the enemy

[blm]

22. Look to states where GOPs control everything.

I have been down to SC, and I believe they'll be taking seats we think are safe, like John Spratt's.

[SPCAworks]

13. nationwide

regular unleaded prices to reach <$1.99/gal....

That and lots of Pabst blue Ribbon and Hamms on sale at the market brings joy to the avg. 'pug voter.

[cybildisobedience]

14. yes, saw Tweety trumpeting that....

The amusing (if it weren't so tragic)aspect was that the "dramatic uptick" was only two points to 42 % approval and the margin of error was 3.1 %.
In other words, there may be no difference AT ALL, or he may still be below 40 percent, with the Congress, the Supreme Court, and the corporate media in his back pocket.

[Armstead]

15. They never seem to want to let facts get in the way

[izzybeans]

18. They are lifting that line from GOP communications with their

online subscribers. I subscribe to their list to see what Mehlman's talking points are and today here is the email. This "comeback" narrative is pretty common. Today it was "beat the odds". The best offense for the GOP is to act like sniveling little peons getting picked on a by a bully.

Dear Izzybeans,

The lesson of the last two elections is clear. Republicans beat the odds and win when we get to work doing what we do best - reaching out to neighbors and energizing people to get involved.

Starting today, we're taking it to a whole new level with the September Sprint to Victory, an unprecedented series of neighborhood house parties, door-to-door walks, and phone banks that's the first step to victory on November 7. It all begins with you. As a leader in your community, will you host an event in Izzyland?

http://www.GOP.com/Party/

The month of September will be critical to this effort... hundreds of events all across the country leading up to a huge, nationwide day of neighborhood walks on Super Saturday, September 30. And the volunteer who makes the biggest impact during the September Sprint to Victory - with the most people contacted, volunteers recruited, new voters registered and absentee ballot voters referred will receive a special surprise gift autographed by President Bush.

We want to make it as convenient as possible for you to help and we understand if you can't make it on the 30th. That's why, from today through Election Day, we're setting aside three days every week for three different house party themes; you can try out different types of parties and pick the days of the week that work for you.

Turnout Tuesdays: Host a get-together at your home, and then use your free cell phone minutes to call voters in this year's most critical House and Senate contests. We'll provide a list of names and the script through GOP.com. All you have to bring is your enthusiasm to support Republican candidates.



House Party Thursdays: Bring friends together for a GOP-themed house party - and pick your own action, whether that's calling voters, handing out absentee ballot information, recruiting volunteers or hosting a local candidate meet & greet. Create your party easily online - we'll even send the invitations and driving directions to your guests.



Super Saturdays: Join us for the biggest event of the month on September 30 or make any weekend your Super Saturday. Go door-to-door in your neighborhood or call voters using free weekend cell phone minutes - and then invite folks back home to watch the big game.

Join us on September 30 - or anytime this September. Get the inside track to earning your special gift by creating your September event (or events) today.

[JohnWxy]

19. The MSM types enjoy talking about the poll numbers because its easy and

they certainly don't want to report on events or facts that will get them in trouble with the GOP!

When you think about all the stuff that th GOP has been doing, that should have been reported on but hasn't been covered - it really is astounding. If it wasn't for the internet I don't know what I would do for information.

Then, ABC puts on a campaign piece for the GOP and some people will probably think someof those fantasy scenes actually took place!

[Bake]

20. Attempting to create their own reality.

Either that, or it's wishful thinking. Yes, the races will tighten, a bit. And I think that we all expected * to get a bump from the 9/11 anniversary, if not from the GOP-u-drama ABC ran. But the public has a ridiculously short attention span, and there's plenty of time for BushCo. to overreach, step in it, etc.

And I hope that's not just wishful thinking on my part.

Bake

[AX10]

27. No party is going to get more than 55% of the popular vote.

The GOP will get more than 40% in the coming election.

[RBInMaine]

21. It IS tightening and Dems better damn well go on OFFENSE now!

Folks, please understand this once and for all: R'S KNOW HOW TO WIN ELECTIONS!!!!! D's need to god damn well understand once and for all that they need to stop whining about the tactics the R's use or about what the pundits say and start learning how to win elections. R's know how to message, they know that negative campaigning works, they know how to define and effectively attack their opponents, and they know how to micro-target their voters and mobilize them to the polls in huge numbers. They are doing this right now, and they are once again turning the election into a referendum on US instead of on them where it is supposed to be. Dems absolutely must not take this election for granted even though there is wide dissatisfaction with the direction of the country under Bush and the R's. And we absolutely can not place all our hope on GOTV because the R's are as good or better on that front, and they have oodles of money. We must also PERSUADE voters to vote for us and AGAINST the R's AND get their butts to the polls. That means we must ATTACK the R's relentlessly, and heavens knows there is TONS of ammunition. Dems must understand once and for all that this is WAR to the R's, and they don't take prisoners. They are and will continue to attack our candidates relentlessly, and we need to go on OFFENSE and do exactly the same, make no mistake! Dems damn well need to grow a frigging backbone this time and start kicking some Republican ass, or once again we will lose and will be entirely OUR fault! No excuses for blowing this historic opportunity!! None!

[Armstead]

23. Good points and I agree

I wasn't saying our side should take anything for granted, or that the GOP does not have the capability to attack and win.

My point was that pundits play into this, but lazily accepting the crap the GOP churns out, and amplifies it.

That is one of the things the Dems have to contend with. I have mixed feelings about their ability to do so.

On one hand, Dems are speaking out, criticizing Bush, offering alternatives, etc. But they are not doing it enough, or effectively. Nor are they dealing in the basics.

One hurdle is the Media filter. Our side has to figure out how to do end runs around the pundit pinheads.

[dback]

24. This is "Brokeback Mountain" and "Crash" all over again (no, really!)

You take the most-honored film of the year--of the past several decades. (Yes, even more than "Schindler's List.") It wins over 20 major U.S. critic's awards for Best Picture, plus the British Academy Award, the Golden Globe, the Writer's Guild and the Director's Guild. It's a slam-dunk; no picture has ever had that kind of track record going into the Oscars.

And we know what happened when Jack Nicholson opened the final envelope (and looked offstage mouthing, "What the...?").

Various writers and insiders in trade magazines and on the web started a "whisper campaign" in December of last year, saying, "Oh, look out for 'Crash.' People in L.A. love 'Crash.' 'Crash' is the anti-'Brokeback.' I sense an upset!" They wanted it to happen, they planted the idea in people's minds, and then spun it as fact.

So a film which got some of the mixed--and worst--reviews of the year (and wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe for best picture), and only came in at #55 on PREMIERE's end-of-the-year critical consensus list, suddenly became The Alternative To The Gay Cowboy Movie.

Go ahead and laugh, and say "But movies are subjective" or "This is totally different." Roll your eyes. Blow this off.

The point is: you have Product A--a film or a political party--which almost everyone in the arena agrees speaks to them. It has people backing it. It is the leader chosen by smart, thoughtful people. People will make the "right," intelligent choice.

But then here comes Product B--"Hey, you don't want to vote for Product A! Product A doesn't represent you! Product A is WRONG! Never mind the facts, your gut says you want to vote Product B! Forget those eggheads, your heart is with Product B!"

And then the whispers grow louder: "Product A is in trouble! Product A is overrated! Is Product A really all they say it is? People are giving Product B another look! Those Who Know are now rallying behind Product B! Product B will be victorious!" And then, of course, it is.

I have no idea why the media likes to do this, except to glory in their own power, but it's a real phenomenon, and it can happen. It has happened. It could happen again.

Be vigilant.

[Armstead]

29. Good analogy (although I did prefer Crash)

Choice of films aside, it's a good point.

I think what bugs me under the surface is that they seem to not want to let people make up their own damn minds. This "horse race" narrative implies that it is possible to read the mind of the entire nation. "Gee Bush made a speech, so that means you're going to give him more approval." or "You don't really care about economic issues. You're worried about terrorism."

Sometimes I wish they'd all just shut up and let people come to their own conclusions about these things.

[skip fox]

28. But let's not get lazy. At DU we can help in writing the Dems's message.

While the White House and its minions (as on Fox News) push the War on Terror as a way of framing (i.e., "hiding") the Iraq issue for the election, we need people to bring it out of hiding.

Here's one basic approach (I'm sure there are many others):

"Republicans and the administration don't want to run on the mess they made in Iraq, so like a magician they try to distract our attention by covering it under the umbrella of 'A War on Terror,' thereby hiding their blunders from the conception to the execution of the war, from WMD's and Sadam-terrorist's links to the civil war which is now in full progress. It's a GIANT SHELL GAME dreamed up by Rove. We need solutions, not PR tricks or a magician's slight of hand. They dress up the pig and then they want us to marry it."

Why can't we frame a message simply and compellingly in order to bounce these jokers. Almost all of the important facts are on our side, especially since the Republicians and the administration has been such an obvious failure by almost all standards?

[Armstead]

30. If only they'd listen to us....