Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

[ProSense]

Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

Terrorism Focus Increases, But No GOP Boost

Released: September 14, 2006

Summary of Findings

As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 levels. Moreover, there are indications that voters are viewing the election through the prism of national issues and concerns. Many more voters see their vote as being against the president than at a comparable point in 1994, and a solid majority says party control of Congress will be a factor in their voting decision.







more...

[Doctor_J]

1. Yup, the party that let us get attacked by terrorists,

and lost TWO wars in 3 years, is considered "will do a better job on terrorism"

[bluerum]

2. Wow. I really like the Pew Research Centers web site.

Less is more.

The visual effect when viewing print over that light pin-striped background in the member bio's is fabulous. Check it out under the about tab.

[longship]

3. Recom-freaking-mended and Kicked

:woohoo:

I knew it. I knew it. I knew it.

[ProSense]

4. Problems in the GOP Base

Problems in the GOP Base

One factor working for Democrats is the relatively weak partisan commitment among a segment of the GOP base. Moderate and liberal Republicans, who make up about 30% of Republicans overall, are supporting their party's candidate at far lower rates than voters in other political groups. About three-quarters of moderate and liberal Republicans (77%) say they would vote for the GOP candidate in their district. By comparison, 94% of conservative Republicans, and an equally large number of all Democrats, say they intend to vote for their party's candidate this fall.

[senseandsensibility]

5. kick

Good news. I, for one, like to hear good news. :)

[opihimoimoi]

6. add my kick

:kick:

[AX10]

7. K & R!

I still don't understand why the GOP is considered to be the party to best deal with security.

[formernaderite]

8. The do not want incumbant reelected is only 27%

whether or not you want most incumbants not to be elected is irrelevant...this is the number I have been watching all along. The problem remains that most people aren't throwing out their representative....but they do want you to throw out yours.

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Rec 5 .... off to the greatest page with ya, now!

[bleever]

10. The talking point now is that there's been a big swing back for the R's.

They're saying it with the same extra energy that Cheney was displaying on MTP. A little over-eager.

That's no way to get a date.

[Auntie Bush]

11. A swift kick

in the pants of every rethuglican.

[OzarkDem]

12. Wish it were more than 50% Dem support

I'm tired of waiting for the Dem candidates to get a unified message. Come on, Dems get cracking and make that at least 55% before election day.

And please talk more about health care, the economy and Social Security. Its your strength!

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I looked at the 49 page full report on PDF

Most interesting findings of the year. In looking at 2006 in relation to the last midterm in 2002, we gain huge in almost every area other than ages 18-29. They are basically unchaged, men and women. But that's good, since that block does not vote in dependable numbers. You don't want to be banking on improvement there.

Women particularly 50 and up have finally figured Bush out and switched away from him in massive percentage. The suburbs have flipped, from 49-40 Republican in 2002 to 49-40 Democratic in 2006. Married moms have turned our way. Single people in all age brackets are huge in our favor, often over a 40 point edge. I could list a ton of numbers but I'd recommend looking at the full 49 page report, which is linked at top right on the PEW page.

Our 14 point lead (46-32) on the economy is the highest from any of the PEW surveys dating to 1990. Not even in the Clinton years did we manage this type of edge, in terms of which party would do a better job on the economy. Yet somehow our candidates and campaigns insist on ignoring that, and seldom if ever mentioning the economy.

The only bad part is we needed the election to be in June. Opinion of congress was at its lowest, along with Bush's approval numbers, as gas prices were at peak.