Is there a possibility we can take the Senate? How are the races going?

[Hamlette]

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/sep/18/new_polls_dems_widen_leads_in_three_key_senate_races

Today they are saying we've got a comfortable lead in RI (too bad Linc, but crap, you vote for GOP leadership which is killing us!) Montana and Ohio.

We're gonna take Ricky's seat in PA. That's 4 so we are 49 (with the two independents) and they are 51. I WANT A MAJORITY. (sorry, I'm unhappy about this torture stuff)

What else? I think MO and VA are not so likely. Am I wrong? Is there a state I'm missing?

[demnan]

1. Don't count out VA

we have a great candidate here and he has done very good on debates the last couple of days

[LSparkle]

2. How's Harold Ford, Jr. doing in Tennessee?

I've heard he may actually stand a chance there ... ??

[grizmaster]

4. it's listed as a toss-up currently

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm

On September 8, Tennessee moved from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up.”

[grizmaster]

3. The rasmussen report moves 3 more races into leans dem column

Still doubtful that the dems will take the Senate, but it is looking like we have a reasonable shot at it.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm

[JerseyGuy]

5. New Jersey's still a toss-up

Menendez should be kicking little Tommy's ass, but some "Hudson County politics" are getting in the way. Also, some of the less informed electorate think that Tom Kean, Jr. is his daddy, the popular former governor and chairman of the 9/11 Commission.

[longship]

7. Menendez is doing some great ads.

The one the other day on homeland security hit a home run.

[Stinky The Clown]

6. Okay .....

Joisy ..... squeaker, but it probably stays ours

PA ..... Ricky's toast. Buy him a dog and a six pack of Trojans.

VA ..... I see Webb by a macaca's nose.

Ohio ..... buhbye Mikey. Flips Dem

TN .... Ford and Corker have been trading the lead for a while. I think Ford's the far better politician and will win by a slim, slim margin.

MO .... Out on a limb, but I think it'll be McCaskill by virtue of a so-far-unanticipated Dem wave sweeping across the country.

MT ..... hahahahahaha. Talent. Big.

RI .... There'll be a second Whitehouse in Washington.

CT ... gotta watch this. the self-selected 3rd party guy is NO sure bet to caucus with our guys.

[longship]

8. You're calling them like I do.

I see six or seven seats, and if Pederson keeps his momentum, AZ could be in play sometime before Nov. AZ is becoming a nightmare for Repukes.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. I'm all over the lot on AZ.

I really **want** to call it for Pederson ..... but I just can't.

[longship]

13. And Hayworth is starting to get into trouble.

That mealy-mouthed asshole is finding the going tough against Harry Mitchell. It would be awesome to have that jerk out of the House.

With Giffords, we could have two House pick-ups in AZ!

[Stinky The Clown]

15. There are VERY few I want to see gone more than him ... here's one ....

This thug .... Peter King (R) Angry White Guy



edit to add the portrait.

[MidwestTransplant]

14. Love your PA and VA commentary!

[longship]

9. Check out this post.

I posted a link to a great site this AM. It has a link to a site which is very much worthy of a bookmark.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2162041&mesg_id=2162041

[Hamlette]

16. yes, thanks, I saw it and bookmarked it

But I'm lazy...actually its a matter of time...I didn't want to scroll through lots of posts so...I thought maybe people here would update me quickly.

I'll add that my son works for Cantwell (WA Senate, you might remember this was a fight in 2000, she only won by 2200 votes, there was a recount but most of us were watching another recount more closely and she's not liberal enough for most of us, but still, a D) and told me yesterday she is up by 17 points. It hasn't been a terribly scary race but when he started with her in August, she was only up by 3 points. (I'll like to take credit, or give it to him, and when I brag to my friends I might, but ... really ... no.)

[MissWaverly]

10. Maryland will be Cardin (D) not Michael Steele (R)

[Mnemosyne]

12. We now have ES&S in many districts here in PA, so

not sure we can count on taking out scumtorum.

Please, please, please let it happen!!

[Eileen]

17. Try the Iowa Electronic Markets

I've found them to be an extremely accurate predicter of election outcomes over the past few elections. I really don't like what I'm seeing there at present. The time for complacency - if there ever was one - has vanished.

CONGRESS RH regressive house |NH non regressive house etc



HOUSE RH regressives hold |RG regressives gain |RL regressives lose




SENATE RS hold 50-55 regressive seats | RS gain >55 Regressive seats |RS lose <50 regressive seats





You can find the full overview and prospectus and quote system at - 2006 U.S. Congressional Election Markets -


Eileen

[Lexingtonian]

18. the Missouri race is within reach

It's seat #51 that's a quandry...no one really knows how to rank the VA, TN, AZ, and NV races relative to each other, or how close/far the D candidates really are from winning.

We'll know in a month. If we can win one of them, we can win all four imo.

[lonehalf]

19. I got this from a previous poster.

The NYT assessments of the races.

It's fun to play with - you can even save your on assessment so others can see it.

I repost it every once in a while so those who missed it.....

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

[TheFarseer]

20. Dems are blowing open some close races

(note most of this info was taken from Rasmussen) Tester was up 9 points last poll I saw. Whitehouse was up 8. Knoblocker is beating down her opponent. I've seen double digit leads in this race. I just saw DeWine down by 6. Missouri is chronically close, but the last poll I saw had McCaskill up 3. Ford is down just a bit but surging forward. Santorum might have topped out and seems destined to lose. Cantwell seems to be doing better. I'm afraid Webb might have topped out. He probably needs Allen to do something else stupid to have a good chance. NJ is worrisome. Menendez seems to be down a bit in every poll.

[AX10]

21. I want it too. New Jersey looks like it's going to be a squeaker.