Another repuke Sen. seat now in "toss up" column? Kyl (AZ) up by only 5!

[jefferson_dem]

SURVEY USA poll released today ---

Republican Kyl 5 Atop Democrat Pederson For AZ Senate Seat: In an election for U.S. Senator in Arizona today, 9/19/06, incumbent Republican Jon Kyl edges Democrat challenger Jim Pederson, 48% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KPNX-TV Phoenix. Kyl gets 81% of Republican votes. Pederson gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents break 5:3 for Pederson. Kyl leads by 13 points among White voters. Pederson leads by 16 points among Hispanic voters, who make up 16% of the Arizona electorate in SurveyUSA's turnout model. Pederson leads by 2 points in the Metro Phoenix area. Kyl leads by 16 points in the Tucson area and by 18 points in the rest of AZ. Of those who approve of President Bush's performance in office, 83% prefer Kyl. Of those who disapprove of President Bush's performance, 70% pick Pedersen. President Bush's job approval among likely voters in Arizona is 44%. Kyl was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994. A Democrat pick-up here would greatly improve the Democrats' chances of retaking control of the U.S. Senate next year.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=7bc891cf-4d78-4a76-981e-f7769f103f36

[Ignacio Upton]

1. Yay! A poll other than Zogby

At least we have another race.

[blondeatlast]

2. I KNEW Kyl was vulnerable! He's a BushBot of the highest order

and even reddish state AZ knows it.

I know some Rs who are disgusted with Kyl and plan on voting for Pederson.

[KingFlorez]

3. It was only a matter of time

Kyl had been looked at as a target, but the numbers never indicated he was vulnerable. Now they do, so there needs to be attention focused on this race.

[speedoo]

4. Fantastic.

I'd love to see this slimeball go down.

[azndndude]

5. The poll probably didn't include Navajo voters

The Navajo vote ( about 80,00 registered voters} can swing elections in AZ as in the close 2002 Governor's race in which Janet Napolitano {D} won with help from the Navajo Reservation portion of AZ. The Navajo vote Democrat about 95%.

[blondeatlast]

7. Very good point. We here in AZ can probably add 3-5 percentage points

at least to any Democratic poll for that reason.

[Lexingtonian]

6. at the rate things are going

I think around October 1 the pundits are going to be talking about Democratic takeover of the Senate being a 50/50 possibility or better.

Moderate voters are slowly walking away from hardline Republicans as if they were turning into big steaming piles of feces. A few are still mesmerized by this transformation. But one by one all these Bushbot fellers are drooping under 50% in their state pollings, and nothing they're doing or saying really makes any difference for the better. Rove seems to have a 'firewall' effort that seems to center on Christian Right hypermobilization, but that's going to be so easy to spoil with a few ads from MoveOn or Democrats telling them that Bush and Rove can't deliver on abortion, or anything else, in the next Congress.

I do want to see what happens to Kyl and Ensign when they come back to their states after this session of Congress ends and they have no new federal law to show their supporters that does ugly and cruel things to illegal immigrants. That's another one where this session of Congress represented the hardcore Right's last chance to get what they desired.

Even if Democrats don't get a majority outright, so many Republican Senators (15 or more) are going to be from increasingly Blue States or ones tipping Democratic in a loud way that Bush won't get 50+1 to agree with hardline crap on anything after November 7.

I'm hoping for a triumphant press conference by Reid and Pelosi on November 8 on which someone asks them about Bush and the Bush agenda. And they go the mike and say...yes, you guessed it!..."Elections have consequences."

[rodeodance]

8. umm.. whow. i am surprized.

[BeautifulLoser]

9. Nice

But AZ still is a bastion of the Right Wing