New Polls Indicate Democrats Gaining Momentum in Bid to Recapture Senate.

[RamboLiberal]

http://ostroyreport.blogspot.com/2006/09/countdown-to-november-new-polls.html

Less than seven weeks from now Americans will go to the polls to vote in the midterm elections which are shaping up as a referendum on President Bush, the Iraq war and the threat from terrorism. Democrats need six seats to regain control of the Senate, and if current polls are any indication of things to come, there's a very strong chance they just might prevail. Races in key battleground states are getting tighter, with Democrats holding their own in leads over Republican incumbents, while staving off Republican challengers to open seats and seats the Dems currently hold.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Tennessee Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford Jr. leading Republican candidate Bob Corker, 48%-45%. This race was earlier predicted as a toss-up by pundits, but Ford has been gaining steadily. Rasmussen Reports show that in Montana, Jon Tester leads Sen. Conrad Burns 52%-43%. Additionally, in one of the tightest races, Missouri Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill now leads Sen. Jim Talent 45%-42%. In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse has widened his lead to 51%-43% over incumbent Lincoln Chafee, up from a 6% advantage in August. In Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown, who's challenging Sen. Mike DeWine for his Ohio seat, leads 47%-41%. Over in Pennsylvania, the 3rd highest-ranking Republican Rick Santorum trails challenger Bob Casey Jr. by 14 points, up from 11 points last month, according to The Hill. Last but not least is the brewing battle in Virginia, with Sen. George "Macaca" Allen unexpectedly fighting for his political life against tough-as-nails war hero Jim Webb. Survey USA has Allen ahead of Webb just 48% to 45%, a statistical dead heat.

In their bid to hold onto seats, the Democrats are faring extremely well. In Washington, incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell now leads Republican challenger Mike McGavick 52%-35%, up from 6% in the August poll. In the fight for outgoing Sen. Mark Dayton's seat in Minnesota, StarTribune shows DFL U.S. candidate Amy Klobuchar maintaining her commanding lead over GOP rival Mark Kennedy, 56%-32%. Lastly in Michigan, a Detroit News poll has Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow with a solid 54%-34% lead over GOP challenger Mike Bouchard.

On the national spectrum, Democrats lead by a 12-point margin (53%-41%) over Republicans in a generic ballot.

[babylonsister]

1. Dare we hope? I will be. nt

[FrenchieCat]

9. Nope...we don't hope.....instead, we

keep our boots on the ground and "make" it happen!

Determination and sheer will......that "might" do it!

But sure...this is good news.....I'm just not going to dwell on it. That's all!

[IronLionZion]

13. The harder we work, the better our luck will be

or something like that. It's important to keep them from stealing it with their diebold voting machines and central tabulators.

[lhsouthern]

32. hopes for the senate

here in washington we are all fighting to replace Dave Reichert out of the 8th district in seattle. I am especially hopeful since we are pretty certain Senator Cantwell will be reelected soefforts are focising on this race since the media is calling it a crucial race. After Reuchert voted along party lines to force voters to prove themselves at Federal Elections, he is really beginning to alienate the moderates here and the democratic candidate is gaining ground in contributions and support.

[Drum]

2. Re: the headline....you can give the majority of the credit to the GOP!

[napi21]

3. If you've never prayed before, now's the time to start!

If you don't believe in God, pray to your beer bottle! But please do whatever it is you do when you are in a desperate situation and ayou're hoping for something GREAT to happen!

I admit, I've beenpraying for quite a while now, and I've increased my pleas.

I'm so scared or the damn evoting machines, but I'm MORE SCARED that the Pubs will retain the majority, and I'm honestly not sure the USA can surviveanother 2 years of that!

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. These numbers look good.....

I've heard the steady drumbeat all day long of the latest Gallup showing a tie in the generic ballot. I was sure that pubs would get some kind of bounce out of 9/11 & falling gas prices, but I don't believe for a minute that they've been able to close a double digit gap to a 50/50 spread?

I expect things to get very ugly over the next few weeks when they unleash their 60 mln on an unsuspecting public.

[tech3149]

5. no matter how positive things may seem

Never let your guard down. We will be crushed by a barrage of media smears, push-polls, and every other underhanded tactic that can be imagined. In the face of adversity, we must show strength that could not be imagined.

[countmyvote4real]

6. and dare I mention "voting fraud?" n/t

[fujiyama]

7. Those are some encouraging numbers

I'm glad to see the incumbents are doing so well. I was earlier worried about MN, being that it has been so close in recent years. I was never too worried about WA state or MI. Hopefully NJ shouldn't be a problem as well. Often I think Dems do better in NJ than polls indicate (I believe independants in the state usuall break Dem).

The TN race is very good news. That's a state Bush won by some 14 points in '04. MO and MT were also very red. So you can see that there isn't much enthusiasm for the RW candidates.

But we're far from actually done. I know in my state, there is an anti-incumbent feel and the governer may very well be the casualty of that. Fortunately Stabenaw has escaped this though. Oh well, if we lose a few state governorships, but get both houses of congress nationally, I can live with that.

[The_Casual_Observer]

8. Yet every day mara liasson trumpets the inevitable victory

of the gop with glee.

[beltanefauve]

30. I despise

that GOP whore!:mad:

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Add one more to the list ... from right here on DU .......

Another repuke Sen. seat now in "toss up" column? Kyl (AZ) up by only 5!

Admittedly, this one is still favorbale to Kyl, but its sure as hell getting tighter out there.

[skipos]

11. I hope Democrats are working hard in NJ, that looks close

nt

[blue neen]

12. Casey started running a new ad against Santorum this week.

I want to see him HAMMER lil' Ricky.

[Maryland Liberal]

14. 51? Hell, I want 67!

We shouldn't be sweating out if we are gonna get 51. We need to launch a NATIONAL TV campaign PROMISING if we get 67,we will impeach the Bushie.

[civildisoBDence]

31. The House impeaches, the Senate can convict

But I'm right with you, ML. Too bad there aren't enough seats up for grabs until 2008.

Newsprism

[bigdarryl]

15. BUT!!! the media keeps telling us the rethugs are coming back...

I just heard it on Imus this morning Tweety say the rethugs are winning in fact evey day on his show it's a rethuglican lovefest.

[4dsc]

16. Lower gas prices will be the death of democrat's

I was listening to another republican strategist who cliamed with some validity that lower gas prices have had a positive effect for republicans and she is probably speaking the truth.

[bigdarryl]

17. It's IRAQ STUPID!!!!!!!!

End of discussion. And i am not calling you stupid i am just using the famous slogan of Clinton when he won the whitehouse

[The Wizard]

18. Does this mean

Repubes control gas prices? Even at the new "low" prices, energy costs are draining money from the economy. Huey Long once said money was like manure. When you spread it around it makes things grow, but when it piles up in one place it starts to stink. Can I get a hallelujah for Repube policies stink?

[LSK]

24. if people cant see the gas prices dropping during election time

as a political ploy then they are dumber than I thought.

[okieinpain]

33. dems could still that bit of news by claiming, conservation is what

is bringing down gas prices. dems need to get on the gas price angle.

[justinrr1]

35. Incredible

It amazes me that people will give them credit for gas prices when they went way up on their watch and now the come down some and they are given credit. The spin never stops but thats the way it goes.

[SteppingRazor]

19. Just to play devil's advocate...

note that the Ostroy Report only mentions those races in which polls have increased for Democrats, thus lending creedence to his claim that Dems are moving ahead. Overall, I agree with his assessment, but he really should have at least mentioned races where things aren't as bright. For example, in the "In their bid to hold onto seats..." paragraph, the report fails to even mention New Jersey, the most dangerous race for Democrats looking to hold onto their seats. It would help if the report at least acknowledged these.

[stuartrida]

21. I think New Jersey is confused as to which "Kean" is running

I can't believe he is polling as well as he is.

[SteppingRazor]

22. I, too, am at a loss to explain Kean's somewhat successful campaign...

and I agree it's disturbing. I'm just pointing out that it makes the blogger look bad to not even mention it.

[stuartrida]

23. I agree. I think Democrats aren't acknowledging that New Jersey isn't

looking good.

[Lasher]

26. We are now behind 1% in the MD Senate race

This is according to a Survey USA poll that was released on 9/20/06 - the day after the Ostroy Report was published. The poll shows Steele (R) ahead, 48% to 47. This is the first time since January that any poll has put Steele in the lead. :-(

That's now 2 pickups for them (MD & NJ) against our 6 (MO, MT, OH, PA, RI, & TN)

[Zynx]

38. I'm not going to declare MD lost because of one poll when several

show us ahead. Also, Democrats always do better on election day in Maryland.

[Lasher]

39. Oh, I'm not either.

I'm just tracking all the latest Senate polls, ignoring MOEs and all other factors, to see where we stand at a given moment. My meager skills are too humble for a more sophisticated undertaking.

If you want to look at it another way, the RCP average gives Cardin a 3.7% advantage.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/md/maryland_senate_race-114.html

[WestSeattle2]

20. Alot can happen in 7 weeks!....even though we've

flushed the quarterback out of the pocket, he can still throw long.......

Sorry, it's football season......

[durrrty libby]

25. I hope this sticks. and I really want to see Senator Macaca

sent to the nearest zoo.

[benny05]

27. Polls Said that about 2004

Nice to have some hope, but, until the soprano sings at the end of the opera, I don't bet on anything. All of those races are too close. Rethugs are experts at GOTV.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

28. Webb vs. Allen is key-- also, Lamont vs. Lieberman in Connecticut

Virginia is the signal battle, and George Allen has managed to piss off enough people that the Virginia seat is up. With his military background and cleverness and toughness under pressure, Webb is just the one we need to win. Also-- let's make sure that Lieberman and his DLC cadres don't foul everything up in CT.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

29. Also, anyone with Spanish-language skills please offer your talents!

Latinos in the US are a potential tremendous well of support for us in the elections, but unfortunately, both their registration and voter participation rates are dreadfully low in comparison to their demographic presence. In one tightly contested election I was helping out with a while ago, we managed to get some Spanish-language pamphlets out to Latino households and some Spanish-language ads in the last month prior to the election, and that seems to have been the crucial difference in a very narrow victory for us-- the exit surveys showed a small but significant bump in the Latino vote which was overwhelmingly Democratic. This can be the crucial difference for us in November.

[a kennedy]

34. Bush and GOP Making Gains Among Voters

WASHINGTON — President Bush's approval rating has reached its highest level since January, helping to boost the Republican Party's image across a range of domestic and national security issues just seven weeks before this year's midterm election, a new Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The survey spotlights a continuing array of Republican vulnerabilities, but it also offers the first evidence in months that the GOP may be gaining momentum before November's battle for control of Congress.

Democrats hold a lead in the poll, 49% to 39%, when registered voters are asked which party they intend to support for Congress this year. But that advantage may rest on softening ground: On virtually every comparison between the parties measured in the survey, Republicans have improved their position since early summer.

In particular, Republicans have nearly doubled their advantage when voters are asked which party they trust most to protect the nation against terrorism — the thrust of Bush's public relations blitz in recent weeks.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll21sep21,0,2149217.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[Guaranteed]

36. My, oh my. If we got the Senate

AND the House back....

Well, it would certainly be an "Oh, shit" moment for BushCo. That's understating it.

[Larry Allen]

37. Senate Majority

The democrats would have to win all of the states they are expected to win: Maria Cantwell WA, Amy Klobuchar MN, Debbie Stabenow MI, Bob Casey PA and Ben Cardin MD. The odds of that are not bad.

Then they would have to sweep the 5 toss-up states: Sherod Brown OH, Jon Tester MT, Sheldon Whitehouse RI, Harold Ford TN and Claire McCaskill MO. Although any one of these races seems do-able, taking all five has a low percentage, somewhere in the 3-4% range.

In addition, they would have to win one of the two difficult races: Robert Menendez NJ and Jim Webb VA. That would bring the overall odds down to 1-2%

That would be a majority, but not a Lieberman proof majority. What are the chances that Joe would a) keep his word and caucus with the democrats or b) side with his ideological collegues and financial backers, the republicans.

The whole notion that democratic control of the senate could hinge on Joe Lieberman keeping his word is truly bizarre. Then there is DoD option, the deal behind the fantastic support Lieberman has been receiving from the republican party, the job he has been lobbying for all these years. Tie-breaker Joe keeps his word but something comes up. Rumsfeld resigns after all and Lieberman is offered the job of Secretary of Defense. Can't you hear his "my coutry calls, I must put duty over partisanship" speech?

So you see the democrats must win New Jersey AND Virginia to have a Lieberman proof majority. Alternatively they could elect Ned Lamont, CT and have done with Joe Lieberman!

Now about that pesky vote counting machinery, and oh yes, the October surprise. (pssst: Linden NJ, 10/11 - pass it on).

Sure, the senate is possible, but don't bet the house on it.

We can dream, in fact we must. But if you are worried that you may be putting too much hope in Nov 6, consider taking out a huge insurance policy on Oct 5.