SO is Kean jr. really ahead of Menendez? NJ Senate race..

[FogerRox]

recent A Quinnipiac University poll of 688 likely voters shows Kean up 45 to 48% in th NJ senate race. Here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7BBDA9F771-071B-4E7D-A016-500FD93BEECE%7D&keyword=

I think they made a mistake

Going by memory...NJ has
2 mill Indie voters
1.3 mill DEMS
850k Repubs

Quinniapac says KEAN is winning the indie vote by 1-2%, its split,Indies usually turn out @ 30-35%, call it 40%, Kean gets 400k as does Menendez .

Menendez is wining 89% of DEMS, thats about 1.1 menendez votes @ 50% turns out...570k menedez, 9% for Kean= 130k

Kean has 92% repubs, thats about 724k Kean votes @ 50% turnout, thats 360k Kean votes. %5 for Menendez= 40k

Menedez

400k Indie
570k DEMS
040k "R"
1.04 mill

Kean

400k Indie
360k Repubs
130k DEMS
892k

Menendez wins by about 160k.
TO believe that Kean is up over Menendez, you have to believe that Kean has a virtual landslide amongst Indie voters. Like 65%.... in a sorta "BLUE STATE".

I don't believe it... not for one second. Menendez is up by 7%. I think we'll make it 9-10% by Nov. 7th.

Then I went to the web site:

searched until I found the breakdowns:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=960

The Poll that says Kean is ahead is of likely voters. The POll of Registered voters has Menendez up by 3%. SO maybe I am right.

[Zynx]

1. Dems always do better on election day in NJ because no poll has

gotten the Democratic edge among voters right.

[FogerRox]

2. True, 2004, Quinnipiac had Bush over Kerry..... 56% to 44% in NJ

Kerry took NJ by 8% IIRC. Thats a 16pt error.

[N90ATC]

3. Menendez is a weak candidate

There's talk that the Dems might get Cong. Rob Andrews to replace Menedez on the ballot. Menendez has horrible TV ads & in a state like NJ, that's what decides these things.

[ProSense]

5. Where did you here that rumor? n/t

[N90ATC]

31. The NY Times...

It was in Friday's paper...

[wiley]

37. Also in The Times. You are FOS! (That's full of sh•t)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[N90ATC]

40. I didn't see that article....

And I'm in favor of the Dems taking over the Senate. My future employment hangs in the balance! What Bush & Co are doing to certain federal employees is outrageous.

[pnwmom]

7. He may not be a strong candidate, but the poll shows that he's tied with

Kean, not behind. That's what it means to say "statistical dead heat."

The results are within the poll's margin of error, which means that they are tied. In other words, the poll was not designed to distinguish between candidates who are running close (within 3.7 points).

[ProSense]

10. Also, who said Menendez is not a strong candidate?

Quinnipiac polling isn't a good indicator. Kean is having trouble raising money. His entire game plan is lame accusations! Menendez can keep hitting Kean on the war and his ties to Bush, Cheney and Rove.

Wilson stumps for Menendez
http://www.app.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060923/NEWS03/609230309

Latest Menendez ad again links Kean to Iraq War
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/104-09212006-716252.html

Kean catches flak from anti-war group
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/104-09212006-716327.html

[pnwmom]

15. A poster above me said that.

I haven't been following the race very closely, but I used to live in NJ.

[FogerRox]

13. Actually, the poll of Registered voters says Menendez is up 3%

ANdI am saying that is wrong, you have to believe that a very large majority of Indie voters are breaking for K jr. DO seriously think 60 to 65% of NJ Indie voters are breaking to K jr.

I sure as hell dont......

If this state wide trend to Kean was true, why isnt it reflected in any polling for any NJ House seat?

I mean gee whiz, if it were true.. there would be at least 2 vulnerable DEMS in the NJ house caucus.

Bob is up by 7 or 8, I am telling ya, read the math, as poorly done as it is.

[FogerRox]

11. LOL -N90ATC has no clue, pay N90ATC no mind

I had no idea that Menendez had even spent one thin dime on TV, at least thats what I was told at the Menendez staff meeting I had tuesday. See my sig pal, thats who I work for. WE coordinate with the Menendez campaign.

A big "EFF U" 2 UR commentary pal.

[annabanana]

29. ummm

I saw a Menendez ad last night (Saturday). He's not especially charismatic, but he's sure got the info right.

[N90ATC]

32. Heed me, heed me!

As stated below, ads for Menendez are running regularly. I watch Jeopardy & I've seen 3 different Menendez ads. I live in NY state so whether or not I like the guy matters not. But for a sitting Senator to be trailing/statistically tied with an empty suit in a 2/3 Dem state like NJ is a bad omen. I have an interest in the Dems taking over the Senate & this guy sin't helping further my interest!

[FogerRox]

35. Menendez is up by 7pts, dont you worry

Quin Univ. said Kerry was down vs Bush in 04, 56-44, Kerry won by 8pts. SAMe with COrzine, down by 3 pts, won by 10%.

TO beleive Kean is up you have to beleive Indie voters are breaking 65% to Kean. DO you think that its possible?


TO beleive Kean is up you have to look at NJ house races and see a reflection of Keans strength in at least one or 2 house races. That simply hasnt happened. Challenger Linda Stender in NJ7 is up 10 pts vs Fergeson. Pascrell is looking 75-25 in N8. Challenger Wyka in NJ 11 is looking to poll 10 pts higher than any DEM EVER in NJ11. Payne is unopposed. Where is the reflection of Keans strength showing up in a house race?

[FogerRox]

48. I am sayin Menendez is up by 7pts, I stand by those statements.

[brentspeak]

30. Not so

Jim Florio lost to Christie Whitman in 1992 when he was leading in the polls. He took the cities for granted, didn't campaign well there, and there was little turnout for him as a result.

[Zynx]

33. I would have to see data on that.

I do know this, in 2004 Kerry was shown tied with Bush in NJ and won it comfortably. Corzine was shown tied with Forrester or just barely ahead and won huge. Gore won by a much bigger margin than expected in 2000.

[pnwmom]

4. No, you're misreading the poll results. Most reporters do, too.

Kean is NOT up by three points, because the results are WITHIN the margin of error, which is 3.7 points.

"Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez trails Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., a New Jersey state senator, 48% to 45% in a new Quinnipiac University poll of 688 likely voters released Wednesday. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, which means the race is a statistical dead heat."

I can see why you misunderstood because the reporter here is contradicting himself. This survey does NOT show that Menendez is trailing Kean. The candidates are actually TIED -- that's what it means to say "statistical dead heat."

This is important to remember about ALL polls. Pollsters can only survey a representative SAMPLE of voters -- in this case, 688 "likely voters." The pollsters predict that, if the entire group of voters (instead of a sample) had been surveyed, the results would have been the same -- within a certain margin of error. The size of the margin of error is based on the size of the sample. The bigger the sample, the smaller the margin of error.

Within the margin of error, there is NO DIFFERENCE between one result and another. In other words, if the pollsters had taken three different samples of 700 voters on the same day, one set of results may have been Kean 48%/Menendez 45%. One might have been Menendez 48%/Kean45%. And one might have been Kean 46%/Menendez 46%. And all three results would have been EQUALLY VALID.

[AX10]

6. Will the Democratic party get their act together soon?

I hope so. If not, we must get Rob Andrews or Frank Pallone to replace him (Menendez) on the ballot.

[pnwmom]

8. No need to panic. I'm not familiar with that race, but

I know how to read surveys. According to the poll results, the two candidates are TIED. If you want to know more, read post #4, above.

[AtomicKitten]

20. thanks for the info

The MSM talking heads are also closely watching this race which peaked my interest. It must be damn close. Too close for comfort.

[FogerRox]

22. But you understand why I think it isnt

Quinpiapac-a-nuts said Bush over Kerry in 2004, 56% to 44%, an 8 pt win in NJ, Kerry won NJ by 8pts, thats a 16 pt ERROR.

Are they making the same mistake with Kean v Menendez? a 16pt ERROR?

And see my OP.

It aint close, Bob Lose, it aint happnin.

[AtomicKitten]

23. I take nothing for granted

I am petrified of yet more election fraud. In 2002, there were overnight "mysterious" 16-point swings in the polls for a Republican win.

I am worried, yet hopeful.

Thanks for all the info.

[FogerRox]

24. I HEAR YA wooried & hopefull too< & fighting for a dem victory

[pnwmom]

26. In reality, it might not be close -- but the polls might

be setting us up for another election steal. So how do we prevent that?

[FogerRox]

27. Um.. I dont bother with that question 6 weeks before the election

Google Roger Fox, Sequoia Advantage. Or do a DU search w/my screen name under election reform forum.I am no longer in election reform mode.

[bottomofthehill]

9. Too late for that

Its time to dance with the one who brung ya and stop the whining. We have a good candidate now rally around him and help out. Stop the bitching and talk of other candidates 45 days from the election

[FogerRox]

12. You tell 'em bottomofthehill. I say Menendez by 8 to 10

on election day.

[pnwmom]

16. Exactly.

We've got some sore losers here in Washington, too. And I read some of Tasini's comments after his loss to Hillary Clinton, and I'd put him in that category, too.

[FogerRox]

14. AX10, Essex County will deliver for Menendez, & AS Essex goes

NJ goes. Dont worry about NJ....I spend 60 to 70 hours a week working in a COngressional campaign... see my sig?

[pnwmom]

17. So aren't you guys worried about voting machine issues?

I've been wondering why I don't hear more from candidates about this.

[FogerRox]

19. AS the Founder of the Essex County Task Force on Voting rights

I spent about 8 months last year fighting the purchase of the Sequoia Advantage DREs by my county. But last year with about 6600 Sequoia Advantage DREs in NJ, Corzine won the GOv. race. And now is not the time to worry about what is done, now is the time to campaign like hell, to fight back, to kick "R" ass.

[pnwmom]

25. But how can we win if they've got the machines?

Look at the huge flip in the Max Cleland election. Nobody in the media blinked. I'm afraid we'll have this on a huge scale this year.

Are we doing anything to fight back?

[FogerRox]

34. pay attention ,,NJ uses Sequoia Advantage DREs

Kerry won the state in 04

Corzine won the state in 05

Elelctions in NJ are run by DEMS

"Are we doing anything to fight back?"

I guess you havent been paying attention, RE law suits, DEMs in SOS races,MEdia coverage all thru thr 06 season...

[Hippo_Tron]

58. Corzine appoints virtually the entire state government

And given that New Jersey is somewhat notorious for its corruption, I'm sure that he has an eye on these matters. It's not like they automatically have software written in them to vote for Republicans. Republicans need to get their hands on them to tamper with them and I'm pretty sure that Governor Corzine won't allow that.

[AX10]

18. Let me make a clarification.

I believe that Bob Menendez is a good man who is qualified to serve as a US Senator.
But, I do not want to lose this seat. All I am saying is if there is any problem with his candidacy, the state party should find someone else to run for the Senate seat.

I hope that you are right and that Bob wins! I want him to win by a landslide, if that is possible.

[FogerRox]

21. AX10, I understand. I am a big fan of Pallone. I think Frank is one of the

best reps around. And was working to get him picked, instead of Menendez. But that was last year.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[wiley]

39. And I spend that much time keeping them healthy

and you are correct. Menendez will erase all doubt in the coming weeks. What we are seeing is progressively more desperate and Tom Kean, Sr. related political and ethical exhaustion. The media in the state is trying to generate some pitch in this race, often because those who own it are rabid Republicans with little interest in either the truth or the people of Jersey. They do it every election - there are VERY bitter and messed up Republicans in the state - and the people vote how they have always voted. (Florio was nailed by a massive right wing radio blitz that targeted him for raising property taxes. Whitman got elected, Jersey got fuc*ed on every OTHER tax, and Republicans stuffed their pockets with money.) When I heard that Bush was going to take Jersey, I laughed, heartily.

I think the margins in Ocean and Monmouth counties are better indicators at this point for statewide races, but Essex still works.

[FogerRox]

41. Sup Wiley, personally I can't wait until the debates

I'll bet you a cup of coffee that Bob crushes JR.

[wiley]

43. BM has to strongly highlight K jr's lack of experience,

his ties to Bush, and where he gets all his money from. He has to make it clear that whether it's someone's son or, uh, friend (sorry, Jim), state security and defense is NOT something that should ever be left to someone with no national experience negotiating for resources and demanding attention. At this point, I don't trust Tom Kean, Sr. to do that after his shameful, greedy exploitation of his participation in the 9/11 Commission. Can't you just see the Kean boy begging Daddy to pull some strings to help his campaign out?

And, if you look at Menendez's record, the choice is very clear.


Look for little Keanie to try and milk some "anti-Mexican" sentiment for his evening feeding. Menendez has to forcefully respond to that, as I trust he will, mentioning the fact that Republicans have been completely unable to stop fighting and bickering to establish a sane and effective immigration policy.


Other than that, Jersey can ill afford to repeat tha national trauma caused by the election of a President who was and is highly unqualified to even run the Jersey Devils let alone a country. No, Tom Kean Jr is not qualified to run the Jersey Devils either, let alone be a Senator.

[FogerRox]

46. DAymn straight Wiley

[wiley]

38. AX10. The primary is over. Pukes are spitting from the gutter, as usual

It never ceases to amaze me how little people know of just how despicable, corrupt, underhanded, hard-ball sleaze slingers the Pukes in Jersey are. Does no one remember the Whitman DMV fiasco? Tens of millions od dollars in Jersey taxes wasted. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the pukes are handing out all Spanish flyers for Menendez in solid Democratic territories.


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion

By JONATHAN MILLER
Published: September 21, 2006

The Internet postings came from people calling themselves “cleanupnj,” “usedtobeblue” and “AmadeusNJ.” They said they were concerned Democrats, “lifelong liberals,” and they were troubled by the United States senator from New Jersey, Robert Menendez.

Mr. Menendez, they said, was up to no good. For instance, did you notice that a Congressional lawyer who Mr. Menendez said cleared him of ethics issues regarding a controversial real estate deal died last year? Wasn’t there something fishy about that?

But the liberal Democratic hosts of BlueJersey.com, the Web log where such comments were posted, smelled something fishy about the postings, and said they traced them to a computer inside the campaign headquarters of Mr. Menendez’s Republican opponent, Thomas H. Kean Jr.

They suspect the person behind the postings, which have appeared on the site regularly since July, is Mr. Kean’s campaign spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbaker. Ms. Hazelbaker called the accusations “nonsense,” and said neither she nor anyone else she knows of in the office had anything to do with the postings. “I’ve never e-mailed them nor posted on the Web site,” she said on Wednesday. “It’s a blog. You can’t believe what’s posted on blogs.” She declined to make Mr. Kean available to discuss the matter.

The Kean campaign’s technical adviser said that the Internet protocol, or I.P., address that linked the posts to the Kean headquarters was an old one, “from over a month ago.” But an e-mail message Ms. Hazelbaker sent to a reporter on Wednesday shares the same I.P. address......

[AX10]

42. I still support Menendez and want him to win.

I have made that very clear.

[wiley]

49. I believe you. Your links also tell me you are an honest person

with integrity. I just wanted to make sure you knew some of the really sleazy things that the Kean campaign is doing, including getting people to act like they are Democrats pissed off about Pallone or Andrews, etc. There is no Republican in Jersey that I could or would vote for against Menendez, and Melendez has a record that I would run on against ANY Republican. Do I still think Frank's son (as Frank Pallone Jr was called by my family when he was growing up) would make a great President, for example? I actually do, although I've never heard him say that is his ambition. I also remember the time when The Asbury Park Press and Star-Ledger weren't partisan rags.

Jersey has more than a few great House reps and two great Democratic Senators, and now is the time to be fully informed about the nasty, unethical crap that is being done by desperate, loathsome Republicans.

I apologize if you feel I was questioning your support of Melendez. I'm still furious that the base in Fort Monmouth was closed, and I'm not letting anyone forget how that happened.

Odd how today Jersey and New York got more Dept.of HomeSec money today, isn't it? The pukes think this will somehow help them in their ongoing effort to politicize national security to get their rubber stampers elected. Yet they still haven't figured out that Jersey is a huge shipping port that needs cargo screening. I can't wait until that moron Pataki is out of office.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Kerry was always a massive favorite to win New Jersey

In the actual betting lines. He was trading in the 95% range. For reference purposes, Kean is now the favorite on Tradesports, trading at 54-46 when I checked earlier today.

The political speculators didn't believe the statewide polling in 2004 but they do think this is basically a tossup race with Kean perhaps a slight advantage right now. I remember posting here months ago that the Tradesports line was 50/50 on this race even when Menendez led by significant margin in the polls.

[rep the dems]

44. I don't know, but after seeing Kean Jr for the first time today on

This Week I realized something: He's a dumbass!

[karynnj]

45. A nasty one at that

I saw "This Week" - there was one really weird thing.

Kean said that clinton, who he agrees with, spoke against immediate withdrawal saying it would be a disaster - which he said "Menendez" is for. Menendez voted for both the Kerry/Feingold and Levin amandments - neither of which is immediate withdrawal.

Stephanopolis than told Menendez that Kean agrees with Clinton - without stating what Clinton really said. At no time did anyone take issue with this bait and switch - I seriously doubt Clinton said the K/F would be a disaster.

[FogerRox]

47. Yes . . .. there ya go, A Dumbass, in the debates he will continue

to appear as a BIG DUMBASSS.

[karynnj]

50. Kean campaign may have posted on liberal site as ex-Dems!!!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/21/nyregion/21blog.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Some of those comments sound pretty familiar.

[FogerRox]

51. Funny stuff, If you are going to do that, do it from the Library.. LOL

[N90ATC]

52. Or maybe do it from the Daily News blog?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/story/455543p-383361c.html

[FogerRox]

53. LOL, sure.

[Freddie Stubbs]

54. Do Democrats in NJ usually turn out at the same rate of Republicans?

If not, your calculations may be for naught.

[Kingofalldems]

55. Why are most of your posts so negative toward Dems?

To me they read like the repub NH congressional aide caught blogging on liberal sites. Not to say that you are doing the same, but it certainly makes one wonder.

[Freddie Stubbs]

56. What exactly was negative about my post?

I was simply seeking some information which would add or subtract to validity to the original poster's arguement. What is negative about a little critical thinking?

[Hippo_Tron]

57. I'm just waiting for the debates

In the first debate Menendez wiped the floor with Little Tommy. Menendez doesn't take shit from anybody and when you put Kean on a debate stage with him, it really shows that the only thing he has going for him is his daddy's name.