If Kerry wins both Tennessee and Virginia and he is leading in the polls

[ringmastery]

What will Clark and Edwards do? If they can't beat Kerry in the south, where can they beat him?

[Jack_Dawson]

1. That's why we're phoning the crap out of TN and VA

[Jack_Dawson]

2. Oh and BTW, California LOVES Clark

and I hear they have several delegates...

[Kathleen04]

5. 300-somethin

It's good to be a Californian. :)

[Taeger]

11. The miracle of federalism

But despite all that population, still just 2 Senators.

I am so surprised that none of the nations that have followed America's path to Democracy haven't adopted the beauty of federalism. It allows regional autonomy and national cohesion to co-exist.

I look at Great Britain and say, Federalism would be the perfect solution. Scotland, Wales, and Ireland get their autonomy. A lot of fractious ethnic disputes could be resolved with the federal system.

The EU is a perfect example of a body that needs federalism. The UN needs a form of Federalism so that more populous nations are properly represented.

[aldian159]

30. Read Dahl's "How democratic is the constitution"

address that subject very well.

[DrFunkenstein]

9. Latest Cali Poll: Kerry 49% & Clark 8%

Kerry 49%
Dean 18%
Edwards 12%
Clark 8%
other 9%
undecided 5%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/CAPoll.htm



Is it just me, or do you hear the dulcet strains of Lionel Ritchie and Diana Ross's "Endless Love?"



How about now?

[MercutioATC]

3. At the convention.

They just have to stop Kerry from obtaining enough delegates, they don't have to beat him.

[lastknowngood]

4. Then we get 4 more years of the shrub

n/t

[Democrats unite]

7. Que Sera, Sera

What ever will be will be...

[BootinUp]

13. Guess I better stock up on

any legal mind altering substances.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. It would be over for them.

[MercutioATC]

10. Not so. There's always the convention. They just need to deny him enough

delegates to capture the nomination before the convention. If they manage that, anything can happen.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. I don't think either Clark or Edwards would follow such destructive course

[MercutioATC]

31. I'd hope that both of them are committed enough to the party to do so.

If Kerry (or whomever the "front-runner" is) can't muster sufficient delegates, I'd seriously hope that the rest of the candidates would see this as a real issue and work to find a new nominee.

[arewethereyet]

28. thats what the super delegates are for

not going to happen

[Taeger]

8. Losing southern states ...

Losing Southern states to Kerry will be a real blow. In the end, I'm pretty confident that Kerry will go to the convention with at least a PLURALITY of votes.

An "Everyone else" vs Kerry coalition could deny Kerry the nomination. Especially if Dean throws his Delegates towards a Clark/Edwards ticket.

I'm almost certain that it's going to be:

Kerry/Gephardt

or

Clark/Edwards


Dean is probably out even if he does win Wisconsin. But that win won't be in vain if he can throw the nomination to someone other than Kerry.

[Carolina]

29. Kerry-Gephardt ???

OMG, I still haven't gotten over Gephardt in the Rose Garden shoulder-to-shoulder with Bush on the IWR. With a such a long term insider ticket like this, we would be doomed.

[BootinUp]

12. It'll be over

The media and the DNC will crown him as the chosen one.

[Liberal_Andy]

14. link to polls?

:shrug:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

17. Tennessee poll

Of 313 likely Democratic primary voters polled, 31 percent said they would vote for Kerry. Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark was second with 22 percent and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards third with 13 percent.

The telephone poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday for The Tennessean and the Chattanooga Times Free Press by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington D.C. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

Asked whom they would vote for if the primary were held today, 7 percent said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, 6 percent Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and 3 percent civil rights activist Al Sharpton.

Eighteen percent said they were undecided.

http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/election/article/0,1406,KNS_630_2622245,00.html

Not a very big sample, though.

[Liberal_Andy]

21. That poll is over a week old! Before South Carolina!

Got anything more recent?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. I don't know of anything more recent.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

27. Clark (26) went up 9 pts in the most recent, Kerry (31) down 1 pt.

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html
Survey USA

1/5-7 1/27-29 1/31-2/2

Kerry 4% 32% 31%
Clark 26% 17% 26%
Edwards 6% 17% 20%
Dean 27% 14% 15%
others 13% 6% 6%
undecided 6% 5% 3%

[arewethereyet]

15. if Kerry wins both, its over.

[Toronto Ron]

19. As a Clark supporter, I have to agree. [n/t]

[krkaufman]

18. ClarkEdwards already beat Kerry in the South

Clark & Edwards are splitting the vote in the Southern primaries, so it's not a matter of their "beating Kerry." I will find it significant if/when Kerry receives more votes than the aggregate of both Clark and Edwards.

As for next Tuesday, one of them (Clark or Edwards) may be relegated back to second tier, while the other (genuinely) becomes the main challenger for the nomination -- all depending on exactly how they finish relative to each other, moreso than their results relative to Kerry. (Ya gotta factor in Kerry's media puff effect; they can't compete directly until the field is further minnowed. :) )

Clark has the best shot at stopping Kerry

Clark to become the anti-Kerry

Feb 10 TN & VA result scenarios

[BootinUp]

22. I wish you were the

editor for the Times or a Producer for CNN, I like your spin. Problem is there hasn't been one mention of splitting the SOuthern vote on the major media sources as far as I know. I have seen some discussion of this on smaller political sources.

[krkaufman]

23. Me, too

Of course, then I'd be making tons of money and would be threatened by Clark's tax plan to get the ultra-wealthy to put some skin in the game during these hard times -- and would have to ignore and/or smear him.

:)

[BootinUp]

26. a politico paradox...

scary :scared:

[Skip Intro]

20. Kerry wins the nomination when he wins the nomination

and not a moment before.

Do they stop a long-distance race in the Olympics before its halfway through just because one guy has an apparent lead?

As long as they have the support, resources and will to continue, they should continue.

A side benefit of not changing the race into a coronation is that the longer process continues, the longer Democrats command media attention, thereby exposing the masses to the sad thruths of the bush regime.

Where's the fire?

[adamrsilva]

25. Then it's over!

You can't win on Super Tuesday with no momentum.

[TheBigDemo]

32. One (Clark or Edwards) will win I think

Either Clark or Edwards will beat Kerry. Either Edwards will beat Kerry in Virginia or Clark will beat Kerry in Tennessee. I doubt Kerry will beat both in both states. Unlikely. However, even if Edwards and/or Clark win in the states, they may be so broke they are done anyway.

James K.

[krkaufman]

33. Nah... Clark or Edwards are strengthened barring a flip-finish

See Post #18

[newyawker99]

34. Hi TheBigDemo!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: