The Wall Street Journal
Election Homestretch Yields Surprises
New Calculus Sees Tight Virginia, New Jersey Races as Washington, Michigan Tension Eases
By JACKIE CALMES
September 26, 2006; Page A4
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The picture in the final stretch isn't what either side expected when the election cycle began. Republicans have given up on early targets among Democrats from states that backed President Bush's re-election, and are now struggling to keep some of their own red-state seats. Democrats, safe in red states, are campaigning hardest in blue ones, especially New Jersey. Five Republican incumbents trail in polls. In Tennessee's open-seat contest to succeed retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Democratic Rep. Harold Ford yesterday released a poll showing he had overtaken Republican Bob Corker. Two other Republican incumbents -- Virginia's George Allen and Arizona's John Kyl -- have seen their once-formidable leads erode to single digits.
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The Senate Democrats' campaign committee is for the first time considering spending significant funds against Mr. Allen. Meanwhile, Democrats have grown less worried about three of their seats. Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow and Amy Klobuchar, seeking Minnesota's open spot, showed wide leads in polls released last week. Yesterday in Maryland, a Baltimore Sun poll showed Rep. Ben Cardin up by 11 points over Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. That leaves New Jersey as Democrats' biggest worry. Sen. Robert Menendez, seeking the seat he got last year by appointment, slightly trails Republican Tom Kean Jr., son of the former governor, after allegations of ethical breaches that the Democrat denies. Nonpartisan analyst Stuart Rothenberg, in revised ratings yesterday, downgraded Republican Allen's prospects, and upgraded those for Democrats Klobuchar and Cantwell.
Last week's Washington primary results confirmed that Ms. Cantwell -- like Sen. Hillary Clinton in New York's Democratic primary the week before -- paid little price among party liberals for her war vote. That was a blow to Republican hopes that Connecticut Democrats' mutiny last month against three-term Sen. Joe Lieberman would prove contagious.
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The senator explains her recovery simply: "We had a lot of meetings with people." She met with groups to let them vent. Supporters promoted Ms. Cantwell's work on other issues important to liberals -- for abortion rights and against drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, in particular. In July, the two rival Democrats had joined her campaign, leaving just Ms. Tran. And Ms. Cantwell issued a statement that if she had known the U.S. wouldn't find weapons of mass destruction, she wouldn't have voted for force against Iraq.
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