Six week outlook on Election 2006

[Ediacara]

Election day 2006 is six weeks from today. Here are some thoughts on how it's looking to me right now.

THE SENATE

Blue states are states I predict a Democratic victory, red states are states I predict a Republican victory, purple states are states I think are too close to call at the moment, and yellow states are states I predict will be won by an Independent.

Arizona
Kyl's leading in polls, but depending on who you ask, it's not by much. I think Kyl will probably end up winning at this point, but with Napolitano expected to win big in the gubernatorial contest and a general Democratic tide this year, Pederson could eek out a slim (but fantastic) win.

Connecticut
Polls show Lieberman ahead by a hair one day, then ahead by 20 the next. Either way, we'll win (well according to Joe...). I think that as the media focuses more and more on the NIE, that Joe's whole reason for "vote for me" will start to stink to more and more Democrats and Lamont will end up winning. But right now, it's TCTC.

Michigan
Stabenow is in the lead in every poll I can find. I think any talk of a tossup here is pure GOP noise.

Minnesota
Just like Stabenow, Klobuchar is in the lead in every poll I can find. This isn't a toss up and she'll win pretty easily IMHO.

Missouri
This race is close, but the polling seems to be favoring McCaskill recently. I think this trend will hold and she'll win the seat.

Montana
Tester will win here as all the polling since about May has shown him (or John Morrison) in the lead. He's also running a good campaign and aligning himself with very popular Governor Brian Schweitzer. Plus Burns is in a crazy meltdown and looks like a screaming lunatic every time he's on TV. The GOP has resorted to the same tax and porn scare tactics that backfired on them when they tried to use them against Schweitzer in 2004.

New Jersey
I worry about New Jersey. Polls have been showing Kean leading for the last few weeks, but I also know that New Jersey has a history of not being very close when polls seem to show the GOP winning. But I really worry here.

Ohio
Brown is ahead in every poll since June (and most polls before then too). Ohio is going to be anti-GOP backlash central and Brown will win by a pretty nice margin.

Rhode Island
Whitehouse seems to be increasing his lead here, and I think it'll stay that way. Too bad for the GOP having to support they guy they hate only to have him lose anyway.

Tennessee
Two recent polls by two different outfits show Harold Ford Jr holding a lead over Bob Corker. I'd love for us to win this seat, absolutely love it. But. I'll believe it when I see a black Democrat win a statewide election in Tennessee. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Virginia
Amazingly Allen seems to have rebounded from the Macaca incident, but I think the constant media pounding of him being a racist may put enough people over the edge to kick him out of the door.

Washington
Cantwell is going to win here. All polling all year has shown her as the clear favorite by greater than 5%. Add to that the general Democratic trend in Washington since 1988, and McGavick's hilariously bad idea of the confession letter lead me to wonder why anyone has considered Washington "in play" for the last four cycles...

Senate outlook:
I think our best case is 52-1-47, and our worst case is 47-2-51. I think however, we'll end up with 50 or 51-1 or 2-48. Since both of the possible independent winners caucus with us, we'll have a majority even with 50 seats.

THE GOVERNORS

Blue states are states I predict a Democratic victory, red states are states I predict a Republican victory, purple states are states I think are too close to call at the moment. Light blue states are states with a Democratic governor, but no election this year, and pink states are states with a Republican governor, but no election this year.

Alaska
I'm holding on to hope that Knolls can come from behind in the polls and get a win here. If only Murkowski had won his primary....

California
I was hoping that Angelides was going to do something. Anything. I don't have hope anymore. I don't know what happened in the campaign to waste huge anti-Arnold sentiment and a great victory against every one of his ballot initiatives and then end up 5-10 behind in every poll since June. Is something going to turn things around? I hope so, but sadly, I don't think so.

Minnesota
Up until a few days ago, I thought Pawlenty had it in the bag, but then in the last few weeks there are polls showing Hatch, the Democratic candidate, at worst, three points behind Pawlenty and in many cases leading by a few percent. It's too close IMHO to call it, but I think we can take this election.

Rhode Island
This race is very close, and the lead seems to go back and forth. Unfortunately due to infrequent polling, I can't say how I think this will end up.

Gubernatorial outlook:
This is a less detailed analysis than what I gave for the Senate, but most of these seats are polling either for or against incumbants by surprisingly large margins. I think our best case is 31-19, and our worst case is 28-22. I think however, we'll end up with 29 or 30-20 or 21.

[Zynx]

1. I think the media barrage on Allen as well as the news out of Iraq will

tip Webb ever so slightly over the top. This race just smells like an upset race.

[Ediacara]

2. I *feel* that's what will happen

But again, I'll believe it when I see it. Or at least when I see some polling showing Webb in the lead again.

[JDPriestly]

3. California -- People don' t like change for the sake of change.

There has to be a reason to oust a sitting governor. After Schwarzenegger lost the proposition campaign, he started compromising to a limited extent (very limited) with Democrats. In particular, the Democratic legislature made a number of deals with him that made Schwarzenegger look good. In addition, Schwarzenegger has taken some superficially activist stances on environmental issues. Even I have to give him some credit. And, even if I didn't see a somewhat less arrogant Schwarzenegger (and I campaigned against him like nobody else in the proposition campaign), the Democrats in the legislature have reduced the pressure on him which makes him look moderate. Top it off with Angelides' mild manners, and you have a loss for Democrats -- harmed by their own failure to oppose Schwarzenegger strongly enough.

[Ediacara]

5. Thanks for the insight

After all the anti-Arnold news in the last year, I thought people had a reason to kick him out...

[dorktv]

4. Nice visuals. Go Jim!

[Tiggeroshii]

6. Good. n/t