Could we actually win the Senate?

[LynneSin]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This poll has us at 50-50 which means repukes keep control since Cheney would be the deciding vote.

Because we're being in New Jersey (i'm going to have to get over there and campaign), it offsets one of the 6 seats where we are winning (and we need six seats for takeover)

HOWEVER....

This poll doesn't have the most recent information from Virginia where Allen is doing everything feasible to show why Webb is the better choice for their senator. Recent polls have even shown that Webb pulling ahead of Allen.

Virginia was never considered part of of the equation for us winning control of the senate - but it could be the deciding factor!!

And we still need to work on NJ - those polls make no sense to me because Bush is a dirty 4-letter word in that state

[Danieljay]

1. I hope I'm wrong..but I don't think we'll take the house OR senate. Why?

Two words: Voter Fraud.

[kath]

12. Actually, not "voter fraud" but "ELECTION fraud".

Terminology is important. ("voter fraud" implies fraud on the part of individual voters - voting in more than one locality, voting more than once by voting for a dead person, etc. Election fraud is the appropriate term for large scale fraud perpetrated by those in charge - ie, the Repugs who own the voting machine companies.)

[elocs]

14. You can't be right...

Even though the election has not even been held yet there are a shitload of people who not only have the Democrats taking the House and Senate, they have Bush impeached and convicted and on his way to The Hague to be tried as a war criminal. You'd have to watch professional wrastling to see more strutting and trash talking. As the saying goes, he who laughs last laughs best and eating crow ain't that good. Yes, and the Repbulicans stealing the election would be about the worst kept secret, but if it pans out that way we will be hearing the wailing and gnashing of teeth, "We was robbed, we was robbed!" which will certainly give the neocons a chuckle.

(I am writing this in the hope that if I say it, then it will not come true. I've been disappointed the past 6 years too many times and as a result I have become cynical.)

[MrCoffee]

2. here comes that old sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach.

[LSparkle]

3. From what I've heard, it's possible

Virginia: Webb beats Allen
Missouri: McCaskill beats Tallent (sp?)
Montana: Tester beats Burns
Tennessee: Ford beats Corker
Ohio: Brown beats DeWine
Pennsylvania: Casey beats Sanitorium

[Kolesar]

5. LynneSin's electoral-vote link has Harold Ford ahead in Tennessee

With the smallest of margins, but that is excellent news.

[FogerRox]

7. Jimmy Carters son in Nevada, in play

[LSparkle]

8. Wow -- I hadn't heard about that one. Great news!

[Awsi Dooger]

20. Nevada is not in play

The Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday has Ensign leading 58-35. I think that's somewhat high but we have no chance to win that race.

I've been in Las Vegas since the '80s. There is only one blueprint for a Democrat winning statewide here: dominate Clark County then cut losses in the rural and northern sections. John Ensign destroys that blueprint since his base is Clark County. He held the Nevada-1 congressional seat from '94 to '98. It's almost impossible to believe a Republican could hold that seat since it's a very blue district, but Ensign had it for two cycles before running against Harry Reid in '98, losing the senate seat by 400 votes including an elongated statewide recount. That should demonstrate how difficult it's going to be to oust Ensign, not just this cycle but in the future. He damn near knocked out incumbent Harry Reid in '98, a year Democrats did surprisingly well nationwide.

From the outside I could understand believing Ensign is vulnerable. He is a mediocrity in a state trending slightly blue in the presidential vote. But having lived here for 20 years I can tell you this is a conservative state. Not far right, but Republicans have a definite advantage of several points. The local political analysts stress that all the time. Since Ensign was a well known veterinarian in Las Vegas before his congressional career, he will always pull a much higher number from Clark County than the typical Republican and that makes knocking him out an uphill climb to say the least. Much more than 50% of the statewide votes are in one county. Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman was our only chance in '06 but even Goodman and his 90% approval rating in Clark County would have been an underdog against Ensign.

[Nimrod2005]

4. I posted almost the same exact question right when you did?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2849709&mesg_id=2849709

[FogerRox]

6. I wouldnt worry about NJ, Internal MEnendez polling says he is up by 6%

If the election were held today we would have 5 senate seats, there are proly 8 or 9 seats in play. ANd if you want to come to NJ, PM me. Might be able to help out. See my sig? WE're coordinating with Menendez.


recently A Quinnipiac University poll of 688 likely voters shows Kean up 45 to 48% in th NJ senate race. Here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7BBDA9F771-071B-4E7D-A016-500FD93BEECE%7D&keyword=

I think they made a mistake

Going by memory...NJ has
2 mill Indie voters
1.3 mill DEMS
850k Repubs

Quinniapac says KEAN is winning the indie vote by 1-2%, its split,Indies usually turn out @ 30-35%, call it 40%, Kean gets 400k as does Menendez .

Menendez is wining 89% of DEMS, thats about 1.1 menendez votes @ 50% turns out...570k menedez, 9% for Kean= 130k

Kean has 92% repubs, thats about 724k Kean votes @ 50% turnout, thats 360k Kean votes. %5 for Menendez= 40k

Menedez

400k Indie
570k DEMS
040k "R"
1.04 mill

Kean

400k Indie
360k Repubs
130k DEMS
892k

Menendez wins by about 160k.
TO believe that Kean is up over Menendez, you have to believe that Kean has a virtual landslide amongst Indie voters. Like 65%.... in a sorta "BLUE STATE".

I don't believe it... not for one second. Menendez is up by 7%. I think we'll make it 9-10% by Nov. 7th.

Then I went to the web site:

searched until I found the breakdowns:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=960

The Poll that says Kean is ahead, is of likely voters. The POll of Registered voters has Menendez up by 3%. SO maybe I am right. Quinnipiac stil cant account for the descrepancy in the Indie vote though.

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Stinky sez:

PA - Casey over Sanatorium. (That's one)

VA - Webb over Allen in a crushing upset. The margin's gunna be a squeaker, but the win will be HUGE. (That's two)

OH - Brown over Dewine. (That's three)

RI - A *new* Whitehouse in Washington. (That's four)

TN - Ford beats Corker by 4. (That's five)

MO - McCaskill wins in another squeaker. (That's six)

MT - Burns goes down in flames. (That's seven)

********************
Incumbent seats at risk:

NJ - We hold this one.

CT - No sure thing as to who that 3rd party guy will caucus with. For now: a hold. I'm worried that Ned just won't get all the votes he needs.

MD - Everyone says its close, but in the end it will be Cardin walking away.

********************
Too close to call:

AZ - Pederson ***just*** might do it, on Napolitano's coat tails.

NV - I list this as too close to call, but even that's optimistic. I just don't think Jack can do it.

[Ediacara]

10. Yes, I think we could win as many as 52 + 2 seats

This is what I'm predicting right now, with purple states too close to call. I think we'll probably keep NJ, and may take VA and/or TN.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. I'm curious ......

..... why are you more bullish on Missouri than either Tennessee or Virginia?

I'm seeing several polls out of TN with Ford ahead by *almost* more than the MOE.

In VA, Wedd is strending up while Allen's trending down. That's a change. For a while, Webb was steady and Allen was going down.

Not challenging your crystal ball, just asking for your rationale.

[Ediacara]

15. I haven't seen any polls in VA with Webb ahead in a few weeks

Webb got a huge boost after the macaca incident, but Allen has rebounded. I think Webb can win in the end due to the NIE and Allen's foot-in-mouth, but right now, I see it as TCTC. If there is anything recent showing a Webb lead I'd love to see it.

In Tennessee, there have been two recent polls (that I know of) that show Ford ahead after almost everything showing Corker ahead. The poll that showed a big lead was produced by a company I've never heard of and I think is probably an internal Ford campaign polling outfit. If the polling trend that showed up only two weeks ago continues, I'll happily predict a Ford victory.

In Missouri, the polling has always been close, but about 2/3 of all the polls from a variety of outfits for the last year have been in McCaskill's favor. Couple that with the fact she's running against an unpopular Senator who barely won in a "big Republican year," and I think that indicates that she'll probably win in the end. Not by much, and there certainly is the chance that Talent could win, but I think it'll end up as a McCaskill victory.

[Stinky The Clown]

17. The Ford polls ......

..... yes, one of the recent ones showing him as being ahead was an internal poll. I don't know where the link is, but I read it here on DU.

[Ediacara]

18. Here's a wiki link to polls in that race

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#Opinion_polling

The big lead poll is from something called Benenson Strategy Group, the small lead poll is SUSA.

[Stinky The Clown]

19. If you click on the name "Benenson Strategy Group" ......

..... you get this interesting link to a PDF. They're obviously working for Ford. That doesn't make them wrong, but it does make them partisan.

http://www.dscc.org/img/tnpollingmemo.pdf

[lonehalf]

13. I try to be realistic...

This was one of the sites I watched in 2004.

He had Senator Kerry winning until one day after the election. Then it changed to look like he was right all along.

Here's a more realistic poll, I think.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS

[Ediacara]

16. That NYT page looks good, but

polls in Ohio and Rhode Island have been showing the Dem candidates in the lead pretty consistantly all summer and fall.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. The theoretical chance is about 17%

That's been the betting odds on Tradesports for months. It virtually has not changed at all. You would think it would move in our favor due to Tenneessee and Virginia moving in our direction, but that's offset by the New Jersey situation and especially the results of the Rhode Island GOP primary. If Laffey had won that primary, we would have moved up at least 10% in the senate takeover odds.

[Bucky]

23. Rhode Island isn't a lock, but it's clearly leaning our way.

Dems lead in RI. After Pennsylvania, that's about as sure a pickup as we have. Picking up a net of five seats (remember we're still behind in New Jersey, which we hold) is a long shot, but not a long long shot. I sceptical we'll win in either Missouri or Arizona--though I'd obviously welcome it. I think the new Senate will be 48 or 49 Democrats.

[blondeatlast]

22. If AZ is in the weak GOP category, yes we can. I'd like to see the Dems

invest some serious money, energy, and bodies here to push us over. All we have to do is take Pima County (southern Arizona) and we will win here.

Pinal has also been traditionally Dem and has been growing like a weed, too.

Dems, get your asses down here and let's win for Pederson!

[Donald Ian Rankin]

24. What are the odds for 2008?

What seems clear is that either the Democrats will nearly retake the Senate, or they'll only just do so - either way, it will be close.

What seats come up for grabs in 2008? Who is in a better position to pick them up?