- updated monthly
© National Journal Group Inc.
Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2006
We're about six weeks away from the first official presidential announcement. All of the top-tier candidates will want to open up federal accounts for official fundraising as quickly as possible, particularly the candidates that didn't run last time like Mitt Romney, Mark Warner and Evan Bayh. What's not clear is when John McCain, Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards announce. They have the standing to wait a bit longer than others, but at the same time, they'd like to make sure their new challengers don't get too much oxygen. This should be fascinating to watch.
These rankings are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. The candidates in our two top spots are the ones who are doing well in all four attributes. As always, these rankings are done in coordination with Hotline Associate Editor Marc Ambinder.
The Republicans
1. John McCain
Arizona senator Last Ranking: 1
Here's what we don't know: if the detainee disagreement hurt his standing among base conservatives in, say, Missouri; or how he'll finesse immigration if nothing calms the base by mid-2007. Here's what we do know: that reporters assigned to McCain better lobby airlines for direct flights from Charleston, S.C., to Des Moines, Iowa. McCain's team is spending more time building strong organizations in those states than in New Hampshire because he's approaching '08 from an entirely different angle. He needs a slingshot. McCain wants to win New Hampshire again, and he will dutifully assemble a team to help. But he MUST win Iowa and probably needs to win South Carolina. By winning New Hampshire as well, he would claim both the "establishment" and "independent" labels and put the kibosh on attempts by movement conservatives to outflank him. Almanac Profile
2. Mitt Romney
Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 2
In New Hampshire, Romney wants to become the first presidential candidate for whom the endorsement of conservatives in that state signals to conservatives in other states that he's in the middle of the Reagan coalition and electable at the same time. It's hard to do. He's not exactly part of the establishment, although he seems to be consciously assuming the habits and policy positions of the conservative intellectual elite. His pragmatic streak and workmanlike style add a touch of independence. His PAC is ingeniously helping to run Jim Nussle's field operation in Iowa. New Hampshire Republicans believe he has the Gregg-Rath-Maiola axis all but wrapped up. However, Mormon skepticism, whether induced by whisper campaigns or in public, has begun to show up in South Carolina. Almanac Profile
3. Rudy Giuliani
Former New York City mayor Last Ranking: 3
Over the next few weeks, we expect to see many television ads featuring Giuliani standing with Republican candidates who want to display their anti-terrorism credentials, their independence or their moderate nature. We've said it many times, and we'll say it again –- there's no other evidence that he's begun to recruit or plan for a conventional presidential campaign. The Republican Party's terror bump may have helped him; his national numbers, if anything, are on the rise.
4. Mike Huckabee
Arkansas governor Last Ranking: 4
More than anyone else in the field except Romney, Huckabee benefits from George Allen's focus on his Senate race. Huckabee is really the only serious candidate with unquestioned credentials as a pro-lifer. That cred may not make him president, but it might grease the path to a VP nomination. At the very least, he'll be a grade-A gatekeeper. Now, if you can explain to us how Huckabee raises $20 million by January 2008, we're all ears. Almanac Profile
5. TBD
-- Last Ranking: --
We've dropped Allen from the top tier (see below), and there is no immediate replacement. We can make the case for George Pataki –- he's setting the stage to raise a lot of money early and by November will have working offices in South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire. If Newt Gingrich runs –- to win –- he's an easy number five due to his ability to raise money, his national name ID, and the lingering pleasant feelings he inspires in many a county chair across the country. But for now, this space remains open.
The Democrats
1. Hillary Clinton
New York senator Last Ranking: 1
From her election to the Senate until today, Clinton's path toward the presidency has been remarkably smooth and incident-free. Assume for the moment, then, that she has already decided to run. In November, you'll hear and see nothing. In December, as other Democrats start to formally announce, her small circle of advisers will begin to have formal conversations with key staff and donors across the country (of which news will leak out). In January, a real trial balloon will float. February will be devoted to preparing the country for her announcement. Bill Clinton will appear on Larry King Live. Carville and Begala will hit the circuit. She'll start to become more accessible. Will she get in before the first primary debate or after it? Can she wait until the fall? Can her donors hold out? Almanac Profile
2. John Edwards Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 2
It's not just Clinton vs. Edwards. It's the Clinton family versus the Edwards family. And boy, does Edwards have family. Wife Elizabeth is a stunning asset in her own right. Her new book will introduce her to tens of thousands of Americans in a real way, and it will further consolidate the warm feelings that many others have. Comparisons to the Clinton family – lovely as they may be – invite themselves without any prompting. Edwards' ability to keep his eye on the ball impresses almost every smart Democrat, although many Dem gurus don't quite understand where the money piece fits.
3. Mark Warner Former Virginia governor Last Ranking: 3
He's got gaffes! (tax cut repeal clarification, "evolving" his position on Iraq). He's got laughs! (Second Life, Hotline Burbclave, avatar) He's got great clips everywhere he goes! He's also got a shot to raise tons of money in the first quarter of 2007, and he's helping a LOT of Democrats across the country this cycle. So the only real question is: When does he get in? November? December? Is it bad for him that New York Magazine has already done its slobber-knocker? Almanac Profile
4. Evan Bayh Indiana senator Last Ranking: 4
If Democrats sweep Ind.-02, Ind.-08 and Ind.-09 in November, three Bayh Democrats will be on their way to Washington. Bayh will spend October stumping on their behalf. It's not for nothing that his major donor prop is a map of the bright-red Bayh counties in Indiana. Now, here's his big chance to prove that the "electable" Democrat can get other Indiana Democrats elected. Almanac Profile
5. Barack Obama Illinois senator Last Ranking: 5
You think we weren't serious last month? We are. All the big questions are being posed. Is his family ready for it? Does he know – or has he been told – what a presidential campaign would truly entail? How does he balance his ambitions with his skepticism? How does, as one Democrat asks, he know if it's his time? (That Democrat was Bill Clinton. Draw your own conclusions.) Hillary's team follows the Obama buzz with at least one eye wide open; the other is on Michael Bloomberg, believe it or not. Almanac Profile
The Rest and Wild Cards at:
http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/wh08/
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