New Jersey Senate: Menendez ahead for first time in over a month

[Lasher]

Great news in the New Jersey Senate race: The two most recent polls have put us back in the lead.

The WSJ/Zogby poll was just updated yesterday, 9/28/06. Their New Jersey Senate poll, conducted 9/19 - 9/25, gave Menendez 46.6% and Kean 40.9%.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

In a Rutgers-Eagleton poll, conducted 9/24 - 9/26, 45% of 404 likely voters preferred Menendez compared to 44% who baced Kean.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060928/ap_on_el_se/new_jersey_senate

Let's hope Menendez continues to improve.

[vi5]

1. After his vote yesterday....

I'm seriously considering saying F Menendez. I'd say F Lautenberg as well but he's not up for re-election yet.

I'm so pissed today at him today and his lame excuse for his vote didn't do anything to help. Many other democrats voted against it, many of them in states much redder than here in NJ. And he still buckled like a cheap belt.

I'm honestly going to have trouble voting for him in November.

[skipos]

3. Have mercy on the rest of us who will have to live with a Kean victory.

America isn't going to be able to survive a stronger Republican majority.

[Lasher]

4. Hold your nose and vote for him

If Kean gets elected he will vote for everything like this, and he would diminish our caucus numbers besides. We must get a majority in either the Senate or the House or this bleeding will never stop.

For what it's worth, I'm disenchanted too. One of my 2 Seators, Jay Rockefeller, voted for it. Jay offered one of the amendments yesterday, and spoke well against the bill. I just don't understand. But I won't have to hold my nose in November, because it's Senator Byrd who's up for re-election here.

[vi5]

10. So vote against my values for the sake of...

political expediency. In short, do just what Menendez did.

Do people not see how this trickling down to all of us?

I probably will hold my nose and vote for him. But at what point does this shit stop?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

11. The point at which this shit should stop

Is the point at which the amount of good done by registering a protest vote outweighs the amount of harm done by a Republican majority.

We're still quite a long way away from that, I feel.

[onenote]

26. well put

[Lasher]

12. I share your pain.

I don't know when it will stop, wish I did. But I do know for sure it won't ever stop as long as the GOP controlls all of the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches.

[KKKarl is an idiot]

20. Be happy

you live in a blue state. Here in OK very few democratic candidates stands a chance of winning. Our democratic governor should get re-elected. But he is the exception. I did not even look at how our senate & congressional leaders voted on the bill because I know how they voted.

[bowens43]

7. That's not a good stand to take. Not now.

Would you rather have the Republicans control the Senate then vote for this guy? It's very likely that Bush will have the opportunity to appoint another Supreme Court Justice in the next two years. Do you want the Senate Judicial Committee to be a rubber stamp for bushes selection? I know that it pisses all of us off that Dems voted for this abomination but we have to look at the bigger picture. If Dems controlled either house of Congress this bill would not have passed. In the house controlled by Dems it probably would not have made it to the floor for a vote.

Where control of congress is concerned numbers are everything. The party that controls the congress controls the agenda. If we have to elect a few bad dems to get control of the committees and the agenda, it is certainly worth it.

[brentspeak]

14. I didn't know that Menendez' vote was the deciding factor

Considering that the Republicans already had the votes to pass the bill all on their own....

But no, let's blame Menendez!

[vi5]

22. Then why did he vote for it?

O.K. if it wasn't the deciding vote and it wouldn't make a difference whether it passed or not then why did he vote for it? I never said his was the deciding vote. But it was an extremely important issue that alters the course of the entire country and trounces ont he constitution. Senators in less blue states than Menendez voted against it.

He vote against liberal values for the sake of some cheap political points to score against Kean. And I would bet dollars to donuts that Lautenberg voted for it as well to keep a unified front.

They let me know where they stand on this issue. It doesn't matter if it was the deciding vote or not.

[LynneSin]

16. How do you think about Tom Carper

Voted for it AND supports Lieberman. And I don't get your pair in New Jersey - they've always come across as pretty liberal.

But I cannot support a 3rd party candidate that, with the state of our horrible voting system, will pretty much means enabling the republicans to win. It's a shitty state we're in.

But if it means anything to you about Menendez, and this is what shocked me, the guy voted against IWR in 2003 and TWICE against the Patriot Act. Perhaps that'll give you a bit of incentive to at least be willing to hold your nose and pull the lever for him. Hell my guy Carper is Vice-Chair of the DLC but I'm still voting for him

[acmejack]

2. They like torturers in NJ?

OK for NJ!

[bowens43]

8. They don't.

That's why they will probably do all they can to ensure that Democrats get sent to congress.

[BoneDaddy]

5. Screw Menendez

But I am going to hold my nose and vote for him. NJ is a blue state and needs to stay that way. What a freaking blow if we gain seats in other states but because of this corrupt prick we lose NJ it will be the height of irony.
F Lautenberg too.

[Lasher]

9. That's the spirit, BoneDaddy.

Here, let me share some more good news to cheer you up:

A 9/19/06 SurveyUSA poll gave 48% to Steele (R) and 47% to Cardin (D). This and the NJ Senate race were the only 2 Republican pickups until just now. The WSJ/Zogby poll that I cited in the OP has also put us back in the lead in Maryland.

Now it's 51.9% for Cardin (D) and 38.9% for Asshole (R).

I haven't yet digested all the polling information that came in yesterday but it looks like we're ahead now by six seats - exactly what we need to regain control of the Senate.

[Jersey Devil]

17. Nice - Come here and repeat Kean accusations

Still up to your old tricks, huh, FM?

[BoneDaddy]

23. Who the hell is FM?

And since when do Democrats bury their heads in the sand when it comes to the corruption of their own...you would make a good republican if you believe that crap. And re-read what I wrote. I said I was still voting for him, regardless.

[DainBramaged]

6. This time, it matters NOT how our candidate smells

What matters is we NEED NJ if we have any hope of gaining the Senate back. One seat is truly one seat to victory.


Put Vick's under your nose and consider the possibility of not winning the Senate or even the House.

[oldboy101]

13. Kean would have accused Menendez of being soft on terrorism

if he had not voted for this bill. I imagine that is why he voted as he did, but I cannot understand why Lautenberg did. I am not excusing his vote, just trying to understand it.

[Lasher]

15. I think that's the same reason for all of them

They're afraid of attack ads now and/or sometime down the road. Take my 2 Senators, Byrd and Rockefeller; Byrd is coasting to re-election this year and knows he will never run for another office. He voted against it. Rockefeller will run for re-election again, and who knows he might just take a stab at the presidency some day. He voted for it.

Still, I was surprised that Rockefeller voted for it since he put up such a good fight on the Senate floor yesterday.

I'm just trying to understand it too. I would never have voted for this outrage, no matter what. I think I'll call Jay's office right now to ask why he voted for the Torture Bill.

On edit: I just called Jay's Washington office. I asked why Jay voted in favor of the Torture Bill. I think it's good to call it that because that's exactly what it is, and it frames discussions properly. A nice many took down my contact information and said someone would be glad to get back to me in writing. They have all my contact info on file already, as I have contacted them in the past about a million times.

[kybob]

18. unfortunatly

anymore voting is choosing the lessor of 2 evils; or as i like to say "the asshole that stinks the least."

[Lasher]

21. It always was, kybob

We will never find a candidate who agrees with each of us on every single issue. That's because we are all different. We have to pick the political party and the candidates that best support our values and goals. It's a package deal and we have to take it or leave it. In other words, we each pick the candidate that we think is best. And looking at it from a different angle, we pick the one who is least evil. It's exactly the same thing.

I wish all Democrats would have voted against the Torture Bill. It was a good opportunity to make a moral statement of principle. It wouldn't have done any good other than that because the Republicans had the votes they needed. But having voted as some did, all the Democratic candidates are still the most good/least evil.

Eyes on the prize, kybob. Let's continue to do what we can to help put the Democrats in the Congressional majority so that they have a fighting chance.

[oldboy101]

24. My senator, Nelson D-FL, also voted for this awful bill.

Of course I will have to hold my nose and vote for him anyway, as the greater goal is to take back control of the Senate. Besides, the Repug running against him is Cruella, AKA Katherine Harris of 2000 election infamy. Fortunately she doesn't have a chance against him!

I applaud you for keeping in touch with Sen. Rockefeller and letting him know where you stand. Regarding your later email, I do think that it will all depend on turn-out on election day in Missouri and Tennessee. If we can pick these up, I do believe we will control the Senate.

Also we have an excellent chance to take back the House. Just today Rep. Foley R-FL resigned abruptly due to a sex scandal, and we now have an excellent chance of picking up his seat. We only need a net gain of 15 seats, although it would be nice to have some cushion.

[Lasher]

29. Missouri has been going back and forth since polling started

It's interesting to note that all of the 6 WSJ/Zogby polls have had Talent in the lead, and that no other poll besides WSJ/Zogby, Rasmussen, and the one by Gallup has ever shown him ahead. I don't suspect a nefarious intent, but I do wonder why this is so.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#Polling

Talent has spent $13M so far, compared to McCaskill's $2M. They each have $7M and $3M COH, respectively. Watch for McCaskill to pull ahead in the last 30 days before the election as she commits her reserve cash.

http://electionprediction.us/2006/09/24/missouri.aspx

Tennessee is a different story. Of the 17 polls conducted this year, Ford has been ahead of Corker only 4 times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#General_election

But 2 of those 4 polls were conducted this month. This, and the overall national atmosphere, causes me to hope that momentum will work in Ford's favor enough to give him the victory.

In contrast with Missouri, the funding situation looks pretty even. Corker has spent $6.1M and has $1.2M left. Ford has spent $5.6M and now has $1.8M COH.

http://electionprediction.us/2006/09/25/tennessee.aspx

And check this out at the site immediately above: Election Predictions is now projecting a new House makeup of 219 Democrats and 216 knuckleheads.

[Lasher]

19. Here's what's going on with the rest of the Senate races

Both New Jersey and Maryland were previously shown as Republican pickups and the latest polls just changed that to Democratic retentions, as I said upthread.

I had hoped this would leave us with a net gain of the six we need to regain control of the Senate but this is not so.

If the November election were to exactly match all the latest polls we would only pick up 4 Senate seats: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Until just now I showed Tennessee and Missouri as Democratic pickups but both these states went back to red with the 9/25/06 WSJ/Zogby poll.

This reminds me of a game of whack-a-mole. But surely we'll be able to retake the lead in Virginia soon. I don't know what else Allen would have to do to hand us a victory. Here's a good thread by LynneSin about that one:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2853007

[bigdarryl]

25. Poll also has Allen still ahead

DAMN!!! even after he's been proven to be a racist he still leads. well thats VA. for you

[snowbear]

28. Darryle, look at the breaking news Mason-Dixon poll. The racist lost his

... lead again.

It's day to day in that race.

[Lasher]

31. Right, Mason-Dixon reported a 43% tie.

But an even more recent SurveyUSA poll was conducted from 9/26 to 9/28 and that one gave the lead back to Allen, 50% to 44%. :(

It's literally day to day in the Virginia Senate race, just like you said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/va/virginia_senate_race-14.html#polls

[TheDonkey]

27. Waaaaaay too close. Wish Menendez would have resigned

and let a better Democrat in there. *Sheesh!* what a mess. We cannot afford to lose a SAFE seat.

[Tiggeroshii]

30. It's so important we keep this seat.

It's the only one we are in real danger of losing. I hope he maintains an upward trend through November.