Top 25 House seats most likely to change parties

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Foley Mess Puts Another GOP Seat in Play

....As always, the No. 1 ranked race -- a new one this time! -- is the most likely to switch parties this fall....

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4. Texas's 22nd District: The more we learn about the write-in voting process in this seat, the more convinced we are that former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) will be coming back to Congress next year. Voters will be required to turn a dial to highlight each letter of the Republican write-in candidate's name. That name is Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. Republicans better hope for a whole lot of patient voters. (Currently R; Previous ranking: 5)

3. Florida's 16th District: Since Rep. Foley's resignation is just a few days old, it's tough to make hard-and-fast predictions about this race. What we do know, however, would seem to doom Republicans' chances of holding on to the district. First, Foley's name will appear on the ballot, and we would guess even the most loyal Republicans will struggle to vote for him even if they know it is really a vote for state Rep. Joe Negron. Second, this district is far from a GOP stronghold, as President Bush carried it with just 54 percent of the vote in 2004. (Currently R; Previous ranking: N/A)

2. Colorado's 7th District: While we have voiced concern about the methodology surrounding auto-dialed polls in the past, Survey USA is the best of the bunch. With that caveat, it's worth noting that a recent poll by the firm showed former state Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) with a 54 percent to 37 percent lead over Republican Rick O'Donnell. Even if that margin seems a bit high, things have clearly gone south for the GOP in Colorado. (Currently R; Previous ranking: 1)

1. Arizona's 8th District: The financial pullout by national Republicans following former state Sen. Randy Graf's (R) primary victory means ex-state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) will be the district's next congresswoman. (Currently: R; Previous ranking: 3)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/10/the_line_foley_mess_puts_anoth.html#more

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Let's elect Eric Massa from NY's 29th

Eric isn't on this top 25 list, but this district is by no means rated safe for Republicans. It is supposedly leaning very weakly to the single term Republican incumbent who has hosted visits from both George W. Bush and Dick Cheney to his district for fundraisers. Republicans are worried about this one.

Eric Massa is a regular blogger at Kos, and is one of the founders and leaders of the Fighting Vets. Eric is an official kos netroots endorsed candidate, so if we win this one we both strike a blow and send a message. But the thing is Eric Massa is a great candidate and wonderful person. He served as a top aid to Wes Clark at N.A.T.O. and he is absolutely fearless in attacking the Bush Administration. He is down to earth, very real and always accessible. Eric gets it. Let's win this one for him.

Remember there is no e-voting in New York State for the November election. We CAN pick this seat up for Democrats.

Here is Eric's web site:

http://www.massaforcongress.com/

[cali]

2. This is a great article

Thanks so much for posting it. Neatly summerizes the most important and volatile House races. A must read.