New ARG Polls TN - K 32, E 21, C 20 VA - K 35, E 22, C 17

[anti-bush]

American Research Group 2/4-6. MoE 4%.

Tennesse

Kerry 32
Edwards 21
Clark 20
Dean 8
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1
Undecided 17

Virginia

Kerry 35
Edwards 22
Clark 17
Dean 9
Kucinich 1
Sharpton 1
Undecided 15


Edwards has passed Clark in both polls, and is closing on Kerry. Clark is still within MOE of Edwards in TN (and he can call it a tie for second if he wants :-) if you ask me).

[frustrated_lefty]

1. GO

Clark people! Kick ass! From a Deanie. :)

[Indiana_Dem]

5. You know if Clark & Dean people got together

they would be second at the least!

[uconnyc]

2. JRE has beat the polls in virtually every state

I really like his chances looking at these polls.

[Jack_Dawson]

3. Edwards always polls better, but gets fewer actual votes

Hmmm...

[anti-bush]

6. Polls better?

IA
Took 32%, polls showed 22, 23, 21

MO
Took 25%, polls showed 15, 20, 17

SC
Took 45%, polls showed 31, 34, 28, 36

OK
Took 30%, polls showed 21, 27, 26


Yep, he seems to poll better but get fewer votes.

[Jack_Dawson]

7. Clark was supposed to come in 5th in NH. Edwards 3rd

After voting: Clark 3rd, Edwards 4th

Exit polls in OK showed Edwards in 1st, Clark in 3rd.

After voting: Clark 1st, Edwards 2nd.

[anti-bush]

8. Difference

You're comparing "expectations" in NH and "exit polls" in OK. Exit polls are a different thing than polls. And the exit polls in OK showed a few tenths of a percent between Clark and Edwards, which is how it ended up.

[uconnyc]

9. Jack - give me a break!

first I question yout exit poll numbers

second I said that I am optimistic looking at the ARG polls because JRE has always beaten them. THE ARG IN NOT AN EXIT POLL!!!!

Jeeez...some of you clark supporters are making me go bald. Luckily for you guys Clark is still my #2

[cryofan]

4. Prediction: Dean and Clark drop out next week

And so then it is Kerry v Edwards.

So, how many delegates are up for grabs after this weekend? Have much of a numerical chance will Edwards have at catching up to Kerry?
With Dean and Clark out, I think Edwards may be able to beat him.....

[knight_of_the_star]

10. Things can chance

Wait until the votes for tonight are cast. Clark is pulling number 2 in Washington state, last time I checked.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

11. This doesn't agree w/ the survey usa poll that shows Clark +9 in 4 days

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Survey USA

1/27-29 1/31-2/2

Kerry 32% 31%
Clark 17% 26%
Edwards 17% 20%
Dean 14% 15%
others 6% 6%
undecided 5% 3%

[anti-bush]

12. The Survey USA poll is pre 2/3

and it's a different poll.

[mohc]

13. I'm a staunch Edwards supporter...

..but its hard to see how these numbers are good. Yes hes beating Clark, but that was pretty much expected. Edwards and Clark both needed a solid win in TN/VA. Even if Edwards pulled out a win, it would probably be by a point or two. Edwards can not win by splitting delegates in the south while Kerry gets every single Michigan delegate (which very well might happen tonight) and does the same in other states. Edwards might be 1-on-1 after WI with Kerry, but Kerry's going to go into Super Tuesday leading by 30+ points pretty much everywhere.