optimism tempered by realism (2006 v 1994)

[onenote]

I am increasingly optimistic that the Democratic Party will recapture control of the House and, possibly, the Senate. But its not a given and we all need to work hard and make sure we encourage our friends and family to get out and vote for Democratic candidates.

The public's growing realization based on recent events (including the worsening conditions in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Foley scandal) that it is time for a change is the source of my optimism. However, the realist in me recognizes that nationwide poll numbers showing a preference for Democratic leadership does not necessarily translate into victories in individual races. We need 15 seats. Because of the power of incumbency, redistricting, and geographic and demographic divides in the country, that is actually a pretty high bar to clear. In the past 36 years, 15 or more seats have switched hands only 6 times and its only happened once (1994) in the past 20 years.

Lets not get too giddy and forget that we have work to do over the next month.

[MrModerate]

1. Two HUGE hurdles . . .

1) The redistricting since 1994 (mostly favoring 'Licans), and 2) Black box voting.

It's going to have to be a landslide to overwhelm these two factors.