Washington Caucus - discussion thread #1

[Desertrose]

OK...so whats with the CNN reporting vote totals different than the official WA results on other sites???

Where did DK's votes go? and Deans, too I think...huh?
Are they spinning already? (dumb question)

DR

edit for links

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/WA /

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/primaries/by_sta...

[leyton]

1. I dunno, I'm confused too.

CNN seems to be behind on the Kucinich totals but ahead on all the others.

[Desertrose]

3. yeah, DK had 499 at one point and now

has only 283?

WTF??
makes no sense...well, I don't like the implications...

DR

[no name no slogan]

2. Something's rotten in Atlanta

I have a feeling CNN is desperately trying to cover up the fact that DK may finish in the top 3 in WA. Something about this does not seem right-- especially since AP's numbers are vastly different.

[stickdog]

5. Note that the AP has STOPPED updating!

I guess they couldn't keep their cheating straight!

[Desertrose]

6. can someone get all the links and we can put them in one place

so we can try to figure out what & how they are doing what we are pretty sure they are doing?

DR

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. These numbers are fishy. Local exit polls don't reflect these numbers.

-Y

[rucky]

8. I'm thinkin' CNN will call the race in a few

just to avoid showing the real returns.

[NashVegas]

10. with 4,000 Votes Counted?

I'd sure as hell hope not.

[TheReligiousLeft]

4. I've been wondering that as well

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=287964>
Here is how they project winners
<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/misc/project.html>

What a projection call means
CNN Decision Desk analysts will review all projections from Edison/Mitofsky before they are accepted by CNN. CNN's team of analysts also will make its own projections. When CNN's analysts project a winner in a race, whether it is based upon data from Edison/Mitofsky or from the CNN computations, it means that when all the votes are counted, CNN projects that the candidate will win the election. The projection from the analysts is as close to a statistical certainty as seems necessary to avoid any mistakes. That does not mean that a mistake cannot happen, but every precaution has been taken to see that it does not. CNN will not "declare" someone a winner because that is up to election officials. We will make projections based on our best estimate of how CNN expects the election to turn out.

When a lot of vote returns have been tallied, a race may be referred as "too close to call" by CNN anchors and analysts. "Too close to call" means the final result will be very close and that the CNN Decision Desk may not know who won. CNN will not say a race is "too close to call" early in the night because CNN doesn't have enough vote returns to say someone has won. In that case CNN anchors and analysts will instead say something like "we don't have enough information to know how the race is going," because when the votes come in the winner may, in fact, have a comfortable margin.

[Desertrose]

7. thanks- added links from your other post

Sure is strange......
DR

[no name no slogan]

11. Here's a link for the NYT results:

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/elections2004/2004WA.html

Washington
(as of 5:39 pm, ET) Reporting: 32%

  
Candidate               Votes       %
---------------------------------------
John Kerry              1,783     44.1% 
Howard Dean             1,119     27.7% 
Dennis J Kucinich         551     13.6% 
Uncommitted               202      5.0% 
John Edwards              198      4.9% 
Wesley k Clark            185      4.6% 
Al Sharpton                 2      0.0% 
Other                       0      0.0%

[WilliamPitt]

13. Those are the AP numbers n/t

[laconicsax]

32. Now this is very interesting

King5news.com is reporting the following numbers from the same amout reporting.


Candidate Votes %
---------------------------------------
John Kerry 1,924 50%
Howard Dean 1,135 29%
Dennis J Kucinich 283 7%
John Edwards 242 6%
Wesley k Clark 135 3%
Al Sharpton 4 0.0%

This is with 32% reporting. What I find interesting is how somehow, Kucinich has 268 fewer votes in this one.

[WilliamPitt]

12. The numbers suggest Seattle hasn't been counted yet

Less than 4,000 votes counted yet, according to the AP.

I think they're counting different districts. :shrug:

[rucky]

14. If DK's doing this well without Seattle...

look out!

[WilliamPitt]

17. I hope you're right!

He was all over the place in Seattle, and drew 1,500 people to Town Hall. Amazing stuff.

[stickdog]

16. Which begs the question. Why? And why has the AP stopped reporting?

[rucky]

25. Must be a DK/DLC conspiracy

and Pitt is the mastermind. Just a friendly ribbing...

Notice how Dean's numbers are staying fairly consistent. I think the discrepancies are between Kerry & DK numbers.

[Desertrose]

20. Will, thats the only thing that can make sense

compare above to AP vote tallies.....


CNN CANDIDATE VOTES
VOTE% DEL PRECINCTS 32% reporting
Washington
updated: 5:23 p.m.,February 7

Kerry 1,924 50% 0
Dean 1,135 29% 0
Kucinich 283 7% 0
Edwards 242 6% 0
Clark 135 4% 0
Sharpton 4 0% 0

[progressivebydesign]

30. Yes.. but the internet headlines are already going to Kerry..

"Kerry has Commanding Lead in Washington". So... how many of us would like to bet that they call this race AGAIN before the votes are all counted, as they did in Iowa? If they do that before Seattle metro area is counted, it will be mutiny.

I'm near Tacoma, WA. I have to say that I'm totally baffled by the numbers being reported as Kerry being so far ahead. In my our caucus, he either tied, or barely squeaked out with one extra delegate. In the call in shows, Dean was winning all the caucuses people were calling about. And.. Kucinich was winning a few. They had better let all the votes be counted before they declare... I just want the accurate picture.

I know, as I read on ABCNEWS.com, that the media wants this to turn into a two many Bush/? race ASAP. But everyone deserves to have their votes counted.

[babzilla]

15. local news is probably more reliable

http://www.king5.com/sharedcontent/northwest/specialreport/stories/NW_020704WABcaucus_resultsEL.87293dbf.html

[WilliamPitt]

18. Those are the CNN numbers

:)

[0rganism]

21. Or are the CNN numbers local news numbers?

Or maybe they're both Diebold's numbers, in which case there's no telling what reality may be.

[no name no slogan]

22. Ah, the joys of media consolidation

Why should the local station bother counting anything anymore when they can get their numbers directly from the megalithic media giant?

[TheReligiousLeft]

19. They are the same as CNN(nt)

[mdmc]

28. Do you guys agree with the Trippi assertion

that once the race gets down to two front runners, anything can happen? We know that Kerry is a front-runner; who will the other be?
Does it matter?
Well, if Dean or Kucinich get into the second slot, all hell breaks loose!

SO, will this race eventually become a two man race, or is it time for Kerry to choose a running mate?

[Desertrose]

29. running mate...I'd say a touch premature....

I agree with Dennisactually that this race ain't gonna be over as soon as the meida& repubs want ...least I sure hope not.

What a fantastic time to wake everyoneup about the progressive & liberal choice....hey, let em focus on the Dems while dubya cools his heels & steam comes outta his ears...
:evilgrin:

:toast:
DR

[stickdog]

23. Why? Those are just CNN's results. (nt)

[I Hate Republicans]

24. Numbers jive...

No more discrepancy.

[TheReligiousLeft]

26. WOW Now they are the same numbers, but different %

With 34% in (CNN) CNN and AP are the same, at least for the first 3 peeps.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

Expecting a turnout of 100,000 yet we have 32% reporting

with less than 4,000 votes.


:wtf:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. If this percentage is by precinct and not by voter turnout...

There should be delegates committed. Delegates are counted by precinct, not voter total.

Weird.

[Paulie]

33. Rural vs. City - Large Precinct takes longer than smaller one

It's like that here in illinois too. Chicagoland is so huge in proportion to the rest of the state.

[progressivebydesign]

36. But what if they call it early?

Iowa was called when the return was around 39%. What if they don't wait for all the totals before calling it. The media is already showing Kerry as having a "commanding lead", etc. I hope they count fast! Kucinich has some really strong pockets in Washington, he deservs to have that counted.

[babzilla]

45. It doesn't matter what or when the media calls it as in a caucus

the delegates are selected at the caucus in real time. The numbers will not be changed no matter what the media calls.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Same here in Washington.

[jpgray]

27. CNN starting to match up more with AP--Kucinich at 14% (nt)

[progressivebydesign]

34. Anyone want to bet how fast CNN will call the race?

I think that someone will call the race before we hit 51% of the vote. Which, in a geographically and socioeconomically diverse state such as this, is a huge mistake.

[TheReligiousLeft]

35. DK lost votes?

Per this post
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=287658#288221>
Anyone have more to say about this?

[Desertrose]

37. WTF-DK just lost 26 votes?

from a total (CNN) of 551- now reporting with 49% and he now has 525?


what are they doing?

I get that its different precincts & all that- but how can you LOSE votes with a greater % reporting??

DR

[zwielicht]

38. two questions

what do the 5% uncommitted at ap mean?

and do caucus delegates stay even if the candidate gets less than 15% overall?

thanks!

[Desertrose]

39. welcome to DU, zwielicht...

hopefully someone from WA can answer this for you... and me too for that matter.
DR

[zwielicht]

44. danke ganz lieb! (nmt4n)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

42. You can send uncommited delegates to the County convention.

No delegates under 15%.

Just came from the Washington caucus. At our caucus the uncommitteds spread out over the 3 unviables. But they could have gone to the County convention as uncommiteds. Hope that answers your question.

[zwielicht]

43. thanks! so if dk stays below 15, do his ones become uncommitted d. ??

.. because they report dk 14% uncommitted 5%?

[Generic Other]

41. Dems turned out in record numbers!

My husband and I were both elected at our precinct caucus in Tacoma, Washington.

1000 people came to our local caucuses about 100 times more than turned out for the last one. There was energy, excitement and anger.

Lots of young people turned out for Dean which was impressive to the older folk who tended to support Kerry. All agreed any one of the candidates would make a great president. None of the infighting that has typified the last few months of campaigning.

It was Kerry, Dean and Kucinich in my precinct. The CNN averages looked pretty close to what I saw. 100 votes = 4 Kerry delegates, 3 Dean delegates, 2 undecided, 1 Kucinich. The Dean folks were out in force.