The Clark, Edwards, Dean electability argument is bogus

[ringmastery]

Kerry is the only contender beating Bush right now. How can Edwards, Clark, or Dean say they have a better chance of beating him when they are losing to him?

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-07-2004/0002105043&EDATE=

And if the election were held today, Democratic frontrunner Sen. John Kerry would win over Bush by 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. However Bush would have clear wins over Democratic contenders Sen. John Edwards (49% to 44%), former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (50% to 44%) and retired General Wesley Clark (51% to 43%).

[displacedtexan]

1. On other threads right now

people are insinuating that CNN is cheating the results to show a Kerry win.
Save your breath (or keyboard skills).

But thanks for trying!

[Padraig18]

2. The election is NOT being held today, that's why. n/t

[Diego360]

3. If the election were held today...

alot of people would be very surprised.;-)

Poll numbers at this stage mean little-- just ask Dean how quickly numbers can change. I'm a Clark delegate and Clark is the candidate I will support. This primary race ain't over by a long shot.

[NV1962]

4. Sorry to bust your bubble

You're looking at Democratic primaries and caucuses.

Check the 2000 results, that had a spike in voter turnout (and a record number of votes for Gore) but also an unusually strong "partisan" voting pattern (Dems voting Gore, Repubs voting Bush) with little cross-over.

If you want a winner, keep your fingers crossed for major cross-over appeal of the Dem candidate and a hike in turn-out in November; both are necessary conditions to be met.

Unfortunately, that's reliably "tested" only during the GE in November.

Don't crow victory yet, when at this stage only the Dem side of the elections is being decided... The real winner needs to bite off a major chunk from (traditional) GOP and independent voters.

The percentages you cite suffer from the uncertainty factor: many votes that will be cast specifically against Bush are now in "limbo" awaiting the real name of the Dem challenger.

The good news is, of course, that Bush is steadily plunging in approval... Hopefully, a trend that'll continue until November - with an added bonus: once the Democratic candidate is elected, with at this point the potential of a considerable margin, I fully expect a similar "exhalation" effect on the stock market, giving a major validation on a key issue: trust in economy.

Things aren't over yet - it's just beginning, and the GOP is close to unleash its $200mn war budget.

[zwielicht]

6. very true

I agree. My problem is how we europeans and the rest of the world would react on a Clark presidency, which i hope is not so unlikely - especially if Dean would really drop out and become his VP *dream* - that would give us (yes us) control over his very promising promises (? sorry). While there are many supporters over here, President Clark alone could get a varied reaction - a 4*general after that development in the last years? on the other hand, dean maybe really could write history with a networked, democratic revolution

[krkaufman]

5. Kerry is *barely* edging Bush

Kerry is *barely* edging Bush in national polls right now, at the height of media hype and praise for him. Consider that he will have to endure NINE MONTHS of negative attacks, that the poll doesn't reflect Electoral College segmentation of the popular vote, and that the other remaining candidates haven't received nearly the level of media praise to date.

And, simply put, Clark has better credentials for the Presidency than Kerry.