With Quinnipiac showing FL GOV race in dead heat, 1st debate tonite at 8PM!

[flpoljunkie]

Debate between Jim Davis and Charlie Crist will be shown on PBS stations in Florida at 8PM. A judge has ruled that Max Linn, Reform candidate, must be allowed to join the debate, but this may be challenged by the debate's sponsors. Jim Davis says he is willing to abide by whatever the court decides.

[napi21]

1. I wonder if the csoan cameras will be there? I don't live in Fl. but

I enjoyed watching the Ct. debates and I'd love to see the Fl. one too.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Last night C-Span replayed the debate between Nelson & Harris at 10PM...

So I assume they will replay tonight's debate. Will check C-Span schedule.

[napi21]

5. GERAT! Thanks. n/t

[flpoljunkie]

4. Yes! It will be rebroadcast tonight at 10PM EDT on C-Span.

10:00 PM EDT

Florida Gubernatorial Debate
Florida Public Broadcasting Service
Jim Davis , D, Florida
Charlie Crist , R, Florida

[bluestateguy]

3. Numbers please

The Florida Republican Party is very good at the turnout game, and what they don't get from that they have their Secretary of State take care of the rest.

[flpoljunkie]

6. Quinnipiac has Crist with 46% and Davis with 44% with MOE of 3.4%

October 23, 2006

Quinnipiac Poll: A Dead Heat Now

Quinnipiac University released a new poll Monday that shows the race for governor has narrowed to a statistical dead heat with Democrat Jim Davis showing dramatic gains among independent voters.

Headed into the first statewide debate between the two candidates, Crist has 46 percent and Davis 44 percent, with eight percent undecided.The poll says 11 percent of voters might change their mind before Election Day. In the space of two weeks, Crist's 50-43 lead among independents has evaporated and Davis now leads among independents, 50 to 36 percent. (The poll was taken Oct. 18-22, 816 likely voters, MOE +/-3.4 percentage points).

As voters focus on the race, Davis is quickly making a stronger impression with voters, the poll shows. Two weeks ago, 57 percent said they didn't know enough about Davis to have an opinion. In this poll, that figure is 23 percent.

"The Florida governor's election is now a real horse race," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2006/10/quinnipiac_poll....

[The Watchman]

7. An outlier poll

I don't think the numbers from the poll are very accurate... one in every twenty poll has a chance to be far off the mark, and this particular group has tended to be those out liers.

I've met Charlie Crist in person twice and I had a very negitive view of him...and this was when I voted republican. (we were all young and stupid at some point) He's done nothing but climb the ladder here in florida, he ran for senate against grahm, education commishoner, Attourney General and now Gov. I really dislike this born again nut and would hate to have him as my state leader, but barring a tide of dems and a yawn of repubs, it will be so.


Be Vigilant.

[seasat]

8. The Rasmussen Poll on the 17th showed a 5 point gap.

This poll follows 5 days later showing a similar tight race. I don't think it is an outlier. The Q poll and the Rasmussen poll examined likely voters. The other poll on the 17th showing a larger spread is for registered voters. I think the Repugs are looking at a depressed turnout due to scandal and dissatisfaction while our base is more energized due to opposition against the war and Bush policies.

[TheVirginian]

9. I thought we didn't like Q-pac because it showed Lieb up 17 points?

[flpoljunkie]

10. Cromer says Davis has now closed the gap to 10% among LV since Saturday

To let you know that the other outlier that had Crist so far ahead and paid for by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, Republican supporters, has moved the race much closer since Saturday.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs...

A Florida Chamber of Commerce poll, done by Democratic pollster William Cromer, shows Crist leading Davis 54 percent to 36 percent, among “most likely” voters.It has a margin of error of 5 percent.

<>Cromer, of the Washington-based The Cromer Group, said his survey of 389 “most likely” voters was taken Oct. 16-21. He said “most likely” voters are those who voted in 2002 and 2004.

He said his polling since Saturday suggests the gap between Crist and Davis has closed to 10 percent among “most likely” voters with Crist at 50 percent and Davis at 40 percent, but he said that newer polling information has not yet been reflected in the chamber’s report.

<>Cromer could not explain the differences between his poll and the Quinnipiac poll, but noted that polling differences are often the result of sample size, demographics, questions and other factors.