Democratic Party officials have been crowing about heavy voter turnout in the first nine primaries and caucuses. In a theme picked up widely by the news media, party types have said the voting totals indicate that Democratic voters are fired up, which bodes well for the eventual nominee's chances against President Bush in the general election.
Is that really so? One answer: Maybe.
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A record number of people went to the polls in Iowa, for example, but in percentage terms, the turnout of eligible voters was about the same as in 1988. In Oklahoma, twice as many people voted in the primary last week compared with 2000 -- but that was only 12 percent of the eligible population, which represents a 30 percent decline from 1992 and 1988. Just 9.8 percent of eligible voters showed up in Missouri, again about a third fewer than in 1988. Arizona and Delaware turned out a dismal 6 percent of eligibles, neither close to a record.
The only solid evidence of a truly energized Democratic base was in New Hampshire, where both the absolute number of voters and the percentage of eligible voters set records on Jan. 27.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22208-2004Feb7.html