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2008 Metrics: National Polls and Name ID
by Chris Bowers, Sun Nov 19, 2006 at 04:35:07 PM EST
Across the five polls, there were only five candidates included in every question: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Gore and Kerry. Looking at the numbers for Democrats and Democratic leaners for each of the five polls, you receive the following average for every candidate:
National Trial Heat Mean
Clinton: 30%
Obama: 20%
Gore: 11%
Edwards: 10%
Kerry: 8%
(Note: the Pew numbers used for this average were two parts Democrats, and one part Independents)
In January of 2008, all of the major candidates will have equal name ID in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. However, right now, that is not the case nationally. According to Qunnipiac's latest national thermometer poll of leading political figures from both parties, here was the national name ID for these five candidates among Democrats and Independents:
National Name ID Average
Clinton: 99%
Gore: 97%
Kerry: 94%
Edwards: 75%
Obama: 47%
Clearly, some candidates are over-performing compared to their current national name ID, and other candidates are under-performing. If the mean trial heat number for each candidate was divided by his or her name recognition number, the results would be as follows:
Known Universe Metric
Obama: 42%
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 13%
Gore: 11%
Kerry: 9%
I call this the "known universe" metric because this is the percentage of supporters each candidate is winning within the universe of people who know the candidate well enough to form an opinion about him or her. It is a crude means of normalizing trial heat numbers for name recognition discrepancies. Right now, 42% of Democrats and Democratic leaners who know about Barack Obama are willing to give him their preliminary support for the Democratic nomination. That is clearly a very good position to be in right now.
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