Why Clark Can Still Win the Nomination

[Tom Rinaldo]

I welcome debate on either side of this supposition on this thread.

First, a short but relevant history review. Despite being written off for Dead by pundits before a single vote was cast in Iowa, Clark made it to the final four. Talk of Clark as a failed candidate actually began two weeks after he entered the race. It was all negative from there until he shocked some people by rising in the polls in NH when everyone other than Dean was failing, and when he proved he could actually raise more money than anyone outside of Dean's rightfully hyped efforts.

Clark's second positive window also lasted for about two weeks before they slammed it shut. Kerry always had deep support in New Hampshire, it was just beaten down into submission by relentlessly bad poll numbers and a lack luster effort on Kerry's part. No doubt Clark was "gifted" some of Kerry's backers for awhile, that's why Clark's numbers in New Hampshire declined once Kerry showed life in Iowa. From then on out it became the relentless media story line. Clark is slipping. Kerry is surging, and here comes that sunny golden boy Edwards. Oh, and by the way, Clark is slipping. Kerry is a winner. Clark is a loser, and here comes that sunny golden boy Edwards. Originally no one on Earth thought Clark could finish above third in New Hampshire, which is exactly where he did finish despite the weight of media coverage flowing against him. Still, the story line was set in stone.

That's history, you say. What's the point? It is what it is, and Kerry is running away with the nomination. One more short review and I will be ready to make Clark's case.

The media loves a horse race, right? Well, sort of. What they really like is a boxing match, man against man throwing punches. The Champ vs. the Contender is their favorite script. Very early on, before it was time to really anticipate any actual votes being cast, they distracted themselves with the "So just how revolutionary is this Dean thing anyway?" coverage. That story ran dry, and the voting was about to begin.

Quickly the media fixed on Kerry being the Democrat's reigning champion. The question became, who will be his Challenger? Was Dean still up to the task? On a thoughtful day the media stretched the story line a bit and introduced the up and coming young guy waiting in the wings for his chance to prove himself in the ring. They needed a back up script, and it clearly was John Edwards.
When Dean disappointed, they auditioned Edwards for the role of the "Contender". But Edwards failed to knock out Clark in the preliminary warm up bouts.

Now media coverage is in transition. Do they wait around for a two man Democratic Boxing Match, or just give up on the Primaries and focus on the Bush vs. Kerry Boxing Match? That brings us to tomorrow. There is only one intra-Democrat media plot that hasn't been rerun to the point of boredom. It's Kerry vs. Clark. If Clark beats Edwards on Tuesday, he knocks Edwards out of the contender role. If Clark Beats Edwards in both Tennessee and Virgina, or if Clark wins one primary, but Edwards doesn't, Edwards has lost his claim to "momentum". Kerry has gotten massive media attention over the last month, so has Edwards, so has Dean (though mostly not flattering). Clark hasn't. Clark is the only candidate left standing with unexploited upside potential. Clark has a solid base in place in Wisconsin for the following week, he is positioned to ride momentum out of the South into a two man race for the nomination, with a healthy dose of new media attention to freshly position him as a viable Democratic alternative to Kerry.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Great Post!

This is a long way from over. Despite the media ramming Kerry down our throats 24/7.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. Has anyone else noticed how it is suddenly so in vogue...

to be a war veteran AFTER Clark was dismissed as being nothing but a uniform in a year when Democrats supposedly only cared about Domestic issues? All the talk is about Kerry being a Viet Nam Vet and how important a match up that is against George Bush.

It is almost like it wasn't safe to stress that point until Kerry was perceived to be far enough ahead that it would not also reflect well on Clark, who has all of Kerry's experience in spades. Kerry also has his Viet Vets Against the War experience which is a huge plus to progressive Democrats, but not so much so with the middle of the road electorate. Clark on the other hand has been unblinking in his opposition to Bush's elective War in Iraq, while Kerry has at various times played up or down his opposition to it (most recently he zigged one way when Hussein was captured, then zagged with the increased attention now given to no WMD being found in Iraq.)

[Leilani]

25. Yes, I've noticed

And I for one, value military service, always have, not only at this convenient time.

That's one of the reasons I support Gen Clark. He spent 34 years defending his country; with his talents he could have made a fortune as a civilian. But he chose a patriotic route & gave much for his country.

He's forgotten more about national security than Bush ever knew.

Go General!

[BigBigBear]

3. Well

I disagree. I don't believe that the Democratic Party establishment, or the bulk of its constituents, WANT an alternative to Kerry anymore. They want a nominee.

I still feel quesy that Kerry, as by far the most "establishment" Democrat in this race (remaining, at least) represents a party looking inward, rather than outward.

Clark would have been a gamble on an outsider (so was Bill Clinton, to some extent), and I believe the RIGHT gamble. But I think there's a lot of anxiety and that tends to move the party toward known quantities. The conventional wisdom holds that "electability" is the key here - I disgree, I think the key dynamic at this point is rallying around a familiar figure, and Kerry is it.

Having said that, I'm quite fearful that the opportunity to broaden the party, reinvent itself and allow it to be led by a new face (Clark) is slipping away. And that the Democrats will get bludgeoned in November. I honestly, truly hope I'm wrong.

[Julien Sorel]

5. I'm not so sure about the 'bludgeoned' part,

but the rest of your post expresses my attitude almost perfectly. I do think Kerry is the third-best candidate, but that's a lot better than what Dean was. But I doubt Kerry will get less than about 45% of the vote -- I would have been shocked had Dean gotten that much, and expected him to get in the 40-42% range, maybe even less depending on how often he shot off his fool mouth.

[BigBigBear]

7. I don't think the Presidential race will be a bludgeoning

That will be relatively close, be it Kerry, Clark, Edwards or even Dean. Bush has pissed off alot of people, and most won't come back.

But our guy can't do much with a solidly Republican Congress - Kerry not only needs to beat Bush, but also generate Democratic weather in the Senate and House races.

If that potential is there, wonderful, but right now I don't see it.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Yes. Clark is a long shot

But I honestly think he is the only viable alternative to Kerry left. Bush has moved to proclaiming himself as a War President. All of the Democrats are progressive on Domestic issues more or less, at least as stated. Democrats want a strong candidate across the board to put up against Bush. Realistically, for the most part, they have only been shown Kerry, Dean, and Edwards. The spot light has remained off of Clark.

If Clark does well on Tuesday, he remains the underdog, certainly. But he will be reintroduced and redefined to a lot of voters. Personally, I think Kerry is a good campaigner, but not a great one. There is a reason why he failed to excite many Democrats for so long despite so many seeming advantages heading into this race. He is getting a huge back wind pushing him from his image as "a winner". That counts for a lot, but if attention gets narrowed to Kerry and Clark, and if some negative stories about Kerry's record start coming out more, like they did with Dean, or if Kerry makes one or two more ill advised comments like the Democrats not needing the South, things can still change. Where contested strongly, he is not running away with the races. The vote against him has been split.

[LittleApple81]

4. I sure hope he can make it. I love listening to him and watching his

demeanor. He exudes honesty and true concern for people.

[Bread and Circus]

8. Man, I hope you are right !

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. You and me both, Brother

Yup. Actually it is pretty amazing, Clark dodged two bullets so far. The media has declared him dead more than once, but they really would have buried him had he slipped behind Edwards in either New Hampshire or Oklahoma. That's why a surprisingly good showing in Tennessee can be so important. The Boy Who Cried Wolf syndrome would start turning to Clark's advantage. He takes their whupping and keeps on ticking so to speak.

And given all the media obsession on Kerry as veteran that is now all the rage, the stage is set for a renewed look at who of the two can match up best against Bush, if Clark leaves the South with some momentum.

[Jerseycoa]

10. I hear

Kerry has veterans making anti-Clark calls to veterans down South.

You hear that?

:puke:

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Geeeze, No

I don't really have my ear to the ground though. Well, we can make more calls then them, and we have George Jones too.

[Jerseycoa]

13. Bless George Jones

Seniors in Tennessee are wild about those ads. So nice. :D

[BootinUp]

21. Yes the "Keeps on Ticking" would

take on a life of its own...Damn we need Tennessee.

[robbedvoter]

11. Great! Now go call voters, cuz media ain't giving us s*

We run against primaru contenders, Bushco& mediawhores and at times I think even DNC (possibly witlessly buyng the GOP media meme)
That we won a state anyway is nothing short of miraculous. Can we do it again? Up to you.

[felonious thunk]

14. Clark must finish a strong second in TN and/or VA tomorrow

I don't think he has to win, but a win would be huge for him. If he finishes a strong second in one or both of the states tomorrow, that will give him some momentum for Wisconsin, where he is already polling well, despite not spending much time there yet. To go along with a strong second tomorrow, he needs a VERY strong second in WI, and then campaign like hell for Super Tuesday. He doesn't need a win before then, but he needs to look strong.

Super Tuesday is the big day for him. He has to win Super Tuesday. Second place finishes won't do him any good there. But he's got a shot!

[bain_sidhe]

15. I agree

I'm under no illusions about Clark. He was a long shot when he got in, and he's still a long shot. But there are reasonable scenarios that could lead to winning the nomination, and this is probably the best I've seen.

[maddezmom]

16. Clark may be long shot, but he's OUR long shot!!

Keep the faith everyone, might want to light some candles early. :)

[Jerseycoa]

23. You go, mom!

:pals:

[Tweed]

47. He's America's long shot

He appeals to all Americans.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HoosierClarkie]

19. Did you hear that from the media?

because his son said today that he will continue! :)

[democratreformed]

20. And Wes, himself, has said no dropping out no less than 5 times in the

past three days.

[Jerseycoa]

24. He doesn't seem to think so

Asked several times if he would be ending his campaign soon if he did not win a primary in the next few weeks, Clark made it sound as if he had just begun to fight.

"Of course I am staying in," Clark said. "I will be here in Wisconsin on Wednesday."

http://www.gmtoday.com/news/local_stories/2004/February_04/02092004_11.asp

[HoosierClarkie]

18. I still believe

I think you are absolutely correct in your thoughts. I still think it is AMAZING that Clark won Oklahoma after every other word uttered from the pundits was "watch out for Edwards surging". Now TN looks pretty good. It is coming down to true grassroots support. Can we beat the media? HELL YES!!!!!!

Now back to calling!!!




:yourock:

[Tom Rinaldo]

22. The Knoxville Sentinel endorsement will help.

"Clark's message has been less about military options than about values, restoring trust, open debate and economic opportunity. It is a message that is getting before the public and is beginning to make a difference for him and the electoral process. A victory on Tuesday not only gives Clark the momentum to continue his efforts, but it also provides the opportunity to keep this national debate going and to stretch out the campaign to select a clear front-runner for the party.

Clark has proved he is a solid contender for his party's nomination. We believe he also will be a strong candidate as the Democratic nominee."

It is exactly the type of credibility Clark needs right now to get over the hump.

[Tom Rinaldo]

26. Clark will be on CBS Evening News tonight at 6:00 pm EST

Excellent timing for mass, non cable, exposure for his campaign.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. P.S. Gert will be on Fox at 10:00 with Greta Van Sustren.

That could be interesting also.

[HoosierClarkie]

40. I watched both and

I didn't see Gert or Clark. Did you?

[BootinUp]

41. CBS had

a short video clip of Clark like 10 seconds. They did not talk to him, just took a minute to tell people not to vote for a hopeless cause. Also said he can't dance.

[HoosierClarkie]

43. Nice.

I am sure they talked about boob gate in depth! Thanks for the info though. :) Just means we fight harder.

[Donkey007]

28. This weekend he said that too many people depended on him. He wont't!

[newyawker99]

48. Hi Donkey007!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[democratreformed]

29. Tom, I love your posts.

:loveya:

[Tom Rinaldo]

30. Thank You. OK, I am off to watch CBS Evening News with Clark

Right Now!

[Jerseycoa]

31. I'll join you ;)

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. They seem to have faked me out. It's at 6:30 on my cable system

So I have more time to make calls to Tennessee I guess. No problem.

[Tom Rinaldo]

33. Was it on at 6:00 in your area?

I guess I will just mosey over to the TV now and catch it at 6:30.

[Jerseycoa]

34. It was just on a few minutes ago

Wes says he is moving forward!!


:bounce:

[BootinUp]

35. 6:30 Here; They dogged Clark's dancing...

said they hope he can close the election, better than he can dance (showed him gettin down). :D

mean I tell ya.

[Tom Rinaldo]

36. All the signs are flashing

Push polling going on against Clark and Kerry (how about that nice man Edwards, huh?). Media speculation about when Clark will pull out. Party big whigs (It seems this one comes from Virginia) talking about how Clark, but not Edwards, has to win tomorrow, or drop out. Zogby Polls out of line with all other dqta. And, of course, the clearest sign of them all: The right on cue return of Clark Supporters for Someone Else.

Yes, they still fear Clark. They want him out of this race so bad they can taste it. Who else is with me tomorrow, to do everything in our power to prove them wrong yet again?

[Jerseycoa]

38. Me me me

I borrowed this today because we were in dire need of a cheerleader. If Incapsulated shows up, she should take over. I have to go to bed. :)

[BootinUp]

39. I think we must continue

Assuming a strong showing in Tennessee, we cannot stop now.

[Doctor_J]

37. Bravo

I like your thinking...it's twisted, but in a good way. I'm in this til the General tells me who I should support.

[SayitAintSo]

42. Thank you dear ... I needed some good news!!!

I like your thinking.... good points.

[MidwestMomma]

44. Clark truly is the anti-Bush

He is cool courage as opposed to swaggering bravado. He is strong leadership as opposed to petty tyranny. He is a breath of fresh air in as opposed to the decaying stench of corruption.

Go Wes!

[Jerseycoa]

45. His speech last night -- SMACKDOWN

I was going to bed and now I'm too riled up to sleep. Listen to it from beginning all the way to the end. He is seriously pissed off about the state of this country and he intends to do something about it. Anybody who thinks Wes is out of the race, I have a bridge to sell you.

http://www.tndp.org/audio/Clark2.8.04.wav

GO WES!

[Gloria]

46. I think my main focus tomorrow is to knock Edwards out of this race!!

Now, I'm not saying Edwards' votes would go to Clark; in fact, Kerry might get a lot of them. But the point is to get Clark more direct face time in contrast to Kerry. The other factor is Dean, who now says he won't drop out after Wisconsin. We all know that the press will continue to focus on him as well. Anybody But Clark (ABC)....

However, voters who have already discounted Dean may be able to cut through the crap and see Clark.

I have never felt so strongly about a candidate as I do about Wes Clark. He gets it in terms of understanding the power structure in DC and how this must be broken. He also understands the takeover of the right wing media.

Wes is truly fighting for WE THE PEOPLE.

In November, if he's not the nominee, I will write him in.

[Tom Rinaldo]

49. Kick for Election day afternoon...

A Kerry supporter on another thread said he thought discussing Edwards or Clark right now was a moot point, so I told him I was kicking this for him to read.