Gallup: Rare for incumbent to trail challenger this close to election

[lancdem]

You guys have to read this: The only incumbent president to trail a Dem challenger at this point in the campaign LOST - that was Gerald Ford in 1976.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=10531

In two instances, incumbents who were leading eventually lost the election -- Carter in 1980 and the elder George Bush in 1992. While the elder George Bush led all of his named Democratic challengers in mid-February, a late February poll showed a "generic Democrat" leading Bush, 48% to 44%. Harry Truman, who led Thomas Dewey in February 1948 but had lost his lead by March, eventually went on to defeat Dewey for re-election.

If history is any guide, Bush's current deficit in the trial-heat polls suggests that he could be in for a tough re-election fight. Four incumbent presidents -- Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Reagan in 1984, and Clinton in 1996 -- never trailed their opponents in the years of their re-election bids, and all four went on to easy re-election victories.

This is a MUST READ!

[jean]

1. unlike Gerald Ford, * might get by with a little help from his friends

[Killarney]

2. I love reading stuff like this

buh-bye Bush! :)

[lancdem]

8. Yes, it really made my day

I was curious about incumbents, and found it interesting that Reagan and Clinton trailed in polls when they were running for re-election, but only in the year prior - never in the final year of their first terms.

[Hand]

3. Good news indeed...

Not a time to let up--in the words of Marshal Foch (as well as my Dad, an unreconstructed New Deal Democrat who didn't care who knew it):

L'ATTAQUE, L'ATTAQUE, TOUJOURS L'ATTAQUE!

The Chimp's a-goin' down!

:toast:

[Raya]

23. Amen

[arewethereyet]

4. then we need to make sure we run a populist southerner

or the spell will be broken.

[lancdem]

5. Maybe as VP

:)

[arewethereyet]

9. nope, the model is quite clear, populist southern prez

I don't make the rules up, just trying to follow them.

Edwards can do nothing to help the ticket except in the top spot.

[lancdem]

11. What about Kennedy in 1960?

Maybe it's time for a different model.

[arewethereyet]

13. Kennedy in 60 was WHY they invented "Mass liberal"

so taht it could never hapen again. Sadly, the Dems have obliged by sending the least electable of the NE's leaders out to do battle.

Only southerners can counteract this.

[lancdem]

14. I don't think that dog will hunt anymore

The GOP thinks it will, but with so many swing voters souring on Bush, I doubt that canard will fly with them. Kerry has done well among moderates and independent voters in many of the early primaries.

[scheming daemons]

20. Until.....

....middle America begins to make the association (with help from Karl Rove) that...

Massachusetts = Gay Marriage = John Kerry

Edwards is the Dems' best hopes for winning.


Remember, Dukakis had a 17 point lead over Poppy Bush in June of 1988 and lost by 8 points.


Everyone east of the Mississippi and south of the catskills who isn't a far lefty will reject Kerry. No way Kerry wins Ohio or WVa after Rove beats him over the head with Gay Marriage.

The Gay Marriage commercials the repukes will run will make Willie Horton look like a minor political ploy.


Kerry can't beat Bush once Rove gets the chance to "introduce" Kerry to middle America.


Edwards has more foreign policy experience than Bush in 2000 and Clinton in 1992. Edwards is our best bet. Deep down, you know it.

[kanrok]

6. Thanks

Just shot this out to a rethug friend. We have a bet about who'll win the election.

[Bronco69]

7. Let me be the first to say

Good Riddance! November can't get here fast enough for me!

[NNN0LHI]

10. Clinton was 20% points behind Bush 1 this time during the '92 election n/t

[lancdem]

12. 15 points, actually

And Carter led Reagan by 25 (Wow!). Being ahead if you're an incumbent doesn't guarantee victory. But the only one of the last eight incumbents who was behind at this point, Ford, lost.

[Old and In the Way]

15. Even rarer to have an incompetent, unelected fraud

Not sure we have any historical model that can explain Dimson.

[lancdem]

16. LOL

True!

[Lex]

17. True.

And there is NO tactic that those criminals in the White House right now won't consider using.

How do you add that into the prior models?

[leyton]

18. Well, Ford was never elected, and owes his office to fraud.

I mean, he was never elected on a national ticket, and only came to the Vice-Presidency because of the frauds committed by his predecessors Spiro T. Agnew and Richard Nixon. Now, for all I know, Ford was an honest man (I really don't know much about Ford), but he's similar to Bush in more than one respect.

[TheDonkey]

19. Anything can happen that link says. We must fight like hell and make

history!!!
'
I can't wait to kick smirkboy out the WH.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

21. Interesting history. (kick)

[WiseMen]

22. Kerry's sweep of victories is also unique for contested primaries

[AP]

24. If Nixon McGovern was a close one at this point, I'm not going to feel

confident that we'll win this year with Kerry.