Analysis of the Primary Election Dynamics

[fabius]

I came across this excellent analysis of the primary election dynamic at the Poorman blog. I think it puts things in perspective a bit.


The Standard Model of Political Reporting

http://www.thepoorman.net/

...Anyone with any understanding of the political process understands instinctively that things like positions on issues, policy proposals, and voting records are entirely superfluous to any serious analysis. Candidates are, according to the Standard Model of Political Science, completely described as stable groupings of 3 characteristics or anti-characteristics, analogous to the "three-quark" model of baryons. These so-called "candidatons" are:

S: Southern, or nS: non-Southern
V: Veteran, or nV: non-Veteran
O: Outsider, or nO: non-Outsider

The fundamental structure of the Democratic candidates are as follows:

Clark: S,V,O
Dean: nS,nV,O
Kerry: nS,V,nO
Edwards: S,nV,nO

Astute observers will note that each candidate shares exactly one candidaton with every other candidate, and that each shared candidaton is unique to a pair of candidates. For example: John Edwards shares only S with only Wes Clark, shares only nV with only Dean, and shares only nO with only Kerry. This symmetry may seem suprising; but, in fact, it is a requirement of the stable 4-candidate system, one of only two configurations allowed by the laws of political discourse. The stability of the system is a result of its symmetry - no matter what order the cadidates are in the polls, it can be demonstrated that candidates 2 and three are splitting a certain voting block, preventing the emergence of an "anti-candidate 1". (Example: if the candidates were polling Dean-Kerry-Edwards-Clark, it would be observed that Kerry and Edwards were splitting the non-outsider vote, preventing the emergence of an anti-Dean.) From these few simple, elegant rules, pundit reaction to any polling data or election results can be predicted to several decimal places.

<snip> more...

http://www.thepoorman.net/

Read the whole thing. Should lighten your burden a little.

;-)

[Leilani]

1. Interesting article

I think this year the ideal candidate is a Veteran & an Insider, which is wht Kerry is doing well.

Because of Iraq war, national security, Chimp & military, a Veteran is needed to oppose Bush.

And because this race is so important, people want an Insider, someone they know & feel comfortable with.

I don't think the Southern/Non Southern is as important as the previous two.

[creativelcro]

2. Interesting speculations. But they are only speculations.

[fabius]

3. this is actually a parody...

admittedly a long convoluted one with snarky (or quarky) references to particle physics...:silly:

So if this is your cup of tea, go to the link and read the whole thing. Ok I have a weird sense of humor.