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with some recognition that this was an immoral war and then added this comment. (From other posts, I think that you would not want a war for party gain.)
Anyway, I dissagree. If the war would have quickly been resolved - and a constitution enacted and a leader chosen, it would have made Bush a heavy favorite for 2004. (So, as in real life, Hillary would not have run) It would have impacted who the candidate would have been. Kerry with his anti-war past of the 70s and his statements against the war in 2003, including calling for "regime change" at home would likely have had no chance at that time. Dean would have clearly had no traction in 2004 unless he had stuck to his original issues before he became labelled as the anti-war candidate. The candidate would likely have been Leiberman, Gepheart or Edwards - all sponsors of the resolution who could say they were bi-partisan and had supported the effort.
Bush 1 had a war deemed a success that ended (and began) in early 1991. Assume W's ended in 2003 nearly as quickly. Bush 1 had a 90 % approval rating during that short war - a year later it was less than half of that. The same thing could have happened to W. As the win became history, attention would focus primarily on domestic issues.
It would have been harder to cast people who supported the war as weak or unwilling to stand up to terror. (Leiberman because he looks weak would not win the primaries) In real 2004, the exit polls showed that the public agreed with Kerry on all the domestic issues. Any of these candidates would have had positons closer to Kerry's than Bush's on all these issues - so they do would likely have been supported on these issues by the majority of people.
The real question would come down to terror. Could they after winning a war have kept the same omnipresent veil of dread and fear - or would the emotion generating by winning (rah rah) - have dispelled some of the terror generated by being attacked.
For the parties, in each party, it would have favored the more neo-con or at least willing to have an aggressive role in the world. In the Democratic party - the wing hurt would be the liberal wing. It would have been deemed to have been wrong. In the Republican party, if he won in 2004 - Bush would now be the Republican king maker. If he lost, within his party, he would be a semi-respected former President just like his dad. Not the deified Reagan, but not the vilified Nixon.
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