The "Last Throes" of the Bush War

[Vyan]

After losing the election, losing Osama bin Laden, losing the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people, losing control of it's government to Moqtada al-Sadr and turning Saddam Hussein into a Sunni Martyr - just what do you think the Redstaters are thinking of now?

They're upset that Bush's little Police Action in Iraq seems to be flopping around like a beached Tuna in it's last throes.

There is some alarming rhetoric in the press surrounding the President's "new-way-forward-in-Iraq" speech that will take place on Wednesday. Mr. Bush has been crafting a revitalized Iraq policy over the last two months; he's made some tough decisions and brought in a new team. Some of what he's considering looks promising, and there are some impressive new eyes on the job. But the entire effort may be doomed before he even opens his mouth by the way it's being framed in the media:

This is our "last try" in Iraq. (see here, here, here and here for examples).

Actually, they don't call it our last try in Iraq--it's Mr. Bush's last try, but for a moment let us entertain the fantasy that we're in this together as a nation.

Yes, that is indeed a fantasy - especially since anyone who told you people this was a bad idea was called a traitor and appeaser by the Bush Administration -- but please go on and tell us were all "in this together" - I'm all ears.

As a nation, we need to recognize that defining the current strategic shift in Iraq as some sort of last gasp is insane, not to mention self defeating.

But we don't have to defeat ourselves, the insurgents, the Sunni and the Shi'a Militia have already done that for us.

It's just like the "timetables" people keep arguing about--we might as well rent billboards all over Baghdad telling insurgents that if they just keep their heads down for the brief period that we're sending in the additional 10,000 troops or whatever the number will be, they'll be fine. Because this is it. The last try. There won't be any more attempts to move them after this.

There won't be anymore from President Bush after this - because he doesn't have enough time left in his Administration to pull anymore rabbits out of his hat. In fact, it's pretty clear that all he's trying to do is run out the clock - assuming of course that he doesn't get benched first.

But wait, didn't Gen Abizaid say that there were only 1000 members of al-Qaida in Iraq? Why - yes, he did. Meanwhile we've already trained nearly 300,000 Iraqi troops - so exactly why should another 10-20,000 American forces make any difference this time, especially when the last surge was such a spectacular failure in Baghdad?

From Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid:

Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed. Like many current and former military lead]ers, we believe that trying again would be a serious mistake. They, like us, believe there is no purely military solution in Iraq. There is only a political solution. Adding more combat troops will only endanger more Americans and stretch our military to the breaking point for no strategic gain. And it would undermine our efforts to get the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future. We are well past the point of more troops for Iraq.

Most of the insurgents (which total about 30-40,000) are not Al-Qaeda. They are disaffected Iraqis, Sunni and Shia, not foreign fighters. How exactly do we "defeat" them? Which side do we take?

Back to Redstate:

Such billboards might come as a relief to a war-weary public as well. Let's wrap this up, and go back to raising the minimum wage and taxes on "the rich" to assuage our consciences as the stock market goes ever higher. Let's not bother with that messy business so far away. It's such a downer. We'll give it one last try, and then pull the plug.

Yeah, yeah - all they have to do is wait for us to leave and then do their worst as if they've been saving it all up or something.

The myopia of this argument is the presumption that this is purely a military problem, with a military solution. Iraq is in the full-on throes of a Civil War, sparky, we don't have a dog in that hunt.

The only solution to this - short of the complete genocide of the Sunni's that is feared by the Saudis - is diplomacy. The various Iraqi Factions need a renegotiation, they need to rework the terms of the deal that was establish by the fantastically incompetant Coalition Provisional Authority. They need to amend their constitution and call for "Neutral Corners", split the nation into semi-autonomous sectarian states each with their own local government and militia with the ability to negotiate and stike a balance with the national goverment.

Y'know - kinda like our country. Here's more from Joe Biden.

No number of troops can solve this problem. The only way to hold Iraq together and create the conditions for our armed forces to responsibly withdraw is to give Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds incentives to pursue their interests peacefully and to forge a sustainable political settlement. Unfortunately, this administration does not have a coherent plan or any discernible strategy for success in Iraq. Its strategy is to prevent defeat and hand the problem off when it leaves office.

Meanwhile, more and more Americans, understandably frustrated, support an immediate withdrawal, even at the risk of trading a dictator for chaos and a civil war that could become a regional war.

Both are bad alternatives. The five-point plan Les Gelb and I laid out offers a better way.

First, the plan calls for maintaining a unified Iraq by decentralizing it and giving Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis their own regions. The central government would be left in charge of common interests, such as border security and the distribution of oil revenue.

Unfortunately this - which would ironically achieve everyones goals of establishing a peaceful Iraq - is the last thing that Bush is likely to suggest since it is a Democrat plan, instead he perpetrates this ridiculous "Surge , Accelerate and Sacrifice" dog and pony show on us all. Pathetic.

Yes, Mr. Bush has played into this meme by making his protracted deliberations so very public, which has fostered the image of a rudderless administration casting about for a magic-bullet solution--and so allowed the press to cast this as a sort of Custer-at-Little-Big-Horn style last stand. And you may argue that in the world of the newly-Democrat congress, this is Mr. Bush's final practical opportunity to act in Iraq before the close the purse strings on him. Fine. Let them try. And if the President allows this to happen his legacy will take the beating it deserves, as will his country. He is, after all, still president, and it is beholden on him to keep trying.

Yes, that's right - any second now the wall he's been beating our collective heads into will just fall away an crumble. Speaking of "insane" what was that old definition for repeating a failed strategy and expecting a different result again?

Oh yeah.

Look - let's take a flight of fancy and presume that we could ever throw enough troops to completely quell the violence in Iraq (ala McCain and the Snake-Talk Express he's been riding lately). That would require Gen Shinseki's long ignored force of 400-500,000 people. We don't HAVE the manpower for that. Not unless we implement Charlie Rangel's Draft. You up for that sparky?

Didn't think so.

As citizen of this country, win lose or draw on this particular effort in this particular front of the war, I can only pray that it is not our "last try." I for one hope that Mr. Bush will be successful with this strategy--but even so, casting it as a "last try" is delusional. Because even if we succeed here and drive them out of Iraq, the enemy will not stop trying. And in this context, our "last try" will be followed by only one thing. The end.

Drive who out of Iraq - the Sunni or the Shi'a? The Kurds maybe? Speaking of "delusional".

If Mr. Bush does implement a surge - (or will it be a bump? Possibly a mole-hile? Maybe a hitch in our git-along?) - it won't be short term, it's likely to last as much as 18 months, and even more likely to fail. Our Redfaced friend is correct, this is indeed an "end game" strategy and not a winning one. Like this poster, Bush will not be diverted from his disasterous course. Like the moth and flame - failure is their fate.

The sad reality is that Mr. Bush is very likely just a deluded as this poster - and we all remain yoked to their fate until the next Presidency (which with luck could come much sooner rather than later for our troops who are on an endless treadmill leading to both PTSD and increasing incidents of Suicide as a result of Bush's disasterous posturing).

Yes, one way or another, this is "The End". Heaven help us all.

Vyan