Okay, so let's assume the Shrub isn't a complete boob...

[Mythsaje]

I know it's a stretch, but please bear with me.

Okay. Let's say their fear is that if we abandon Iraq, it joins with Iran and Syria and begins to take bites out of the surrounding "friendly" nations and gains control of a ever-larger swath of the Middle East, gaining control of all that oil in the process, has some basis in fact rather than being the product of some paranoid delusion (again, a stretch).

Now, judging by how successful our venture there has been to this point (which is to say, not very successful at all, and taking into consideration how stretched and damaged our military has become in the process), is continuing on the same path likely to prevent such an occurence in the end? Not likely, considering that trying to take on Iran and/or Syria in the bargain, on top of Iraq and Afghanistan, our military will most likely be handed the worst defeat in its history. We simply don't have the resources to succeed without taking the risk of destroying the very substance that we're actually fighting for.

Call me crazy, but wouldn't it make more sense to withdraw our troops from the region and call for a complete and total shift in our priorities? To put our considerable resources toward attaining energy independence and begin rebuilding our military capabilities in order to effectively oppose this possible threat? We're throwing away an astounding amount of money with little real hope of success. They have GOT to understand that.

We're losing and, considering how things are going, the more that the other nations in the region get involved, the worse we're going to do. We are in no position to actually WIN this war, even assuming they're not just crazy assholes trying to convince us of a danger that doesn't exist in the first place.

We're throwing away billions of dollars, thousands of lives, and gaining nothing of value in the bargain. Any way you cut it, we're losing any chance to compete in the very battle they say they're trying to win.

So are they stupid, or are they playing a deeper game than we can even imagine? The fact is that if we've reached the point that we're about to start warring over oil, how long will it be before someone far more proactive than we've turned out to be invents something that makes oil entirely unnecessary--at least in terms of energy production?

I find myself wondering...what don't we know? Because, based on what we DO know, none of this makes any sense whatsoever.

edited because I stupidly typed Syria when I meant Afghanistan...and again because I forgot to complete a thought.

[madeline_con]

1. How 'bout they stop trying to sound so fucking noble and just...

straight up tell us they're securing the oil for the future of "our way of life", which translates to driving to Walmart to buy Chinese made crap.

edit: I can't spell!

[aquart]

2. The completely stupid domino theory again.

THESE PEOPLE HATE EACH OTHER. THEY HAVE HATED EACH OTHER LONGER THAN THE UNITED STATES HAS EXISTED. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO HATE EACH OTHER LONG AFTER WE ARE GONE BECAUSE WE LISTENED TO STUPID THEORIES.

Bush has never been right about a single thing.

Syria is a freaking powderkeg. It is governed by a small minority sect ruling over Sunnis and Shias with a special hatred of Sunnis. Iran is Shia but not ARAB Shia. They speak Farsi, an indoeuropean language and call themselves Persians. They think Arabs are scum. Any alliance between Iran and Iraq based on their Shia-ness WILL NOT LAST. And Syria would have to be insane to allow its Shias to grow in power thru alliances with Iraq and Iran. And always remember that the vast majority of the Muslim world is Sunni, NOT Shia, and they have no interest in a growth of Shia power in their world WHICH WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING IF THE UNITED STATES WOULD GET ITS FAT ASS OUT OF THERE.

[Mythsaje]

3. Yeah, I think the whole Islamic empire thing is pretty damn unlikely

for many of the reasons you mention. Part of the problem is that the ignorant tend to lump all the different factions together, as if they'd naturally be any more inclined to cooperate with one another than differing sects of Christians if given the same set of circumstances.

I don't think they're being any more honest about their reasoning here than they have been all along. But it's a good story to fool the ignorant.

[GreenZoneLT]

4. I'm still stuck on your assumption.

Let's assume WHAT now, and WHY?

You are definitely correct, that's a stretch.

Actually, I don't think he's THAT stupid, it's just that he believes a lot of things that aren't true. And he's completely impervious to new information that doesn't fit his previous conclusions.

These guys, especially Cheney, have a lifetime commitment to the idea that what's good for the oil industry is good for America, and the notion that amateur bidnessmen you meet at the country club will always outperform career gummint bureaucrats. You're talking total personality meltdown before they could change their policies based on those beliefs.

Bush will make speeches about energy conservation, just as he makes speeches about a lot of things people want, without acting on them (or in some cases, actively acting against them). My favorite one still is his proposed Mars mission, whilst cutting NASA funding. He stole that one from his daddy.

[krispos42]

5. No, he's a complete boob

But regardless of the status of his boobness, there isn't going to be any unified Arab state anytime soon. There hasen't been one in how many centuries? Since the height of the Ottoman Empire?

The more pressing issue here is "When was the last time Iran (or Persia before that) was sucessfully invaded?" I heard it's been something like 900 years so ro.

And assuming that the United States of Arabia come to fruition and they control all of the oil...

So what?

Unless they decide to completely stop exporting oil, it largely doesn't matter. It doesn't even matter ifthey don't sell oil to us. If they don't they'll have to sell it to Europe and Asia, leaving more Canadian, Mexican, North Sea, Russian, and South American oil for us.

And if they stop selling oil, they will promptly collapse under the weight of there internal greed and need for oil money.

The Middle East does not have much in the way of advanced technology development centers. If they want advanced consumer electronics, machinery, and weapons, they'd better keep the oil flowing.

The real danger I see is that the civil war will get very sharp, and that Saudi Arabia might be forced to step in to protect Sunnis, at which point Iran might step in to protect Shia, and then you have some kind of weird religious war by proxy going on.

The Iraqis have to battle both politically and militarily into some sort of mutually-agreed on government. The two sides are not yet battered and bloodied enough to come to a agreement yet. We should move way outside of Baghdad, bring most of our troops home, and use the rest to secure the border with Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia to keep foreign fighters and other aid out. And we should start training the Iraqi army there, isolated from their neighborhoods and family, like we do here in the US.

[Montauk6]

6. I continue to believe that his moronisms are as genuine as Vinny the Chin's crazy act

Think about it, could a boob net this kind of lucre for his backers the way this man has? CONSISTENTLY???

Yeah, yeah, I know... "what about the mess he's made of the economy, what about the debacle in Iraq" His BASE is not suffering at all, never forget that. You and I, the entire world (other than the aforementioned elite, of course) don't count.

Gotta hand it to them; they've played this off beautifully. The world is drowning in blood and chaos thanks to what amounts to a sick comedy skit premise brought to life.