Oregon, Washington could gain congressional seats

[stevedeshazer]

http://www.oregonnews.com/article/20070115/NEWS/70115001

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Population growth may give Oregon and Washington each another seat in Congress after the 2010 Census, giving the region more clout in Congress and in presidential elections.

Congressional reapportionment experts say the two states appear to be on track to add seats. Oregon last gained a U.S. House seat - its fifth - after the 1980 Census. Washington, which has nine seats, gained one in 1981 and another in 1991.

“I have Oregon and Washington each picking up a seat, but not by much,” said Clark Bensen, a Virginia-based analyst who advises Republicans on reapportionment strategy through his firm, Polidata.

He says Oregon’s odds are slightly better than Washington’s.

His forecast uses population growth over the past two years to project it to 2010. Both states have grown by about 3 percent in the past two years, ahead of the estimated national rate of about 2 percent.

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Good news, the West is increasing in political clout as it continues to trend toward Democrats.

[Mythsaje]

1. Depends on where those seats originate...

If it's on the eastern side of each, it's not necessarily a good thing.

[stevedeshazer]

2. I doubt that will happen

Most of the population growth in both states is in the west.

In Oregon, the new division will likely involve carving a new district out of parts of the fourth and second in southern Oregon, or at worst divvying up the first and fifth. In either case, the outcome would stand a pretty good chance of ending up marginally Democratic-leaning. The Secretary of State, responsible for redistricting, is a Democrat, and so are both houses of the state legislature, as well as the Governor.

In Washington, any new district will likely originate in Puget Sound exurbia, nomimally Democratic, and Washington's state legislature is in solid Democratic hands.

I like the chances that both these seats potentially are gains for the Dems.

[regnaD kciN]

3. Big Whoop...

As a Washingtonian, I'd receive this news with "modified rapture."

First of all, any change won't take place for another three election cycles at the nearest.

Second, it will all depend on where the boundaries are drawn, which means it depends on what the makeup of the state legislature and occupant of the governor's mansion are. As has been noted, any additional seats assigned to the east side of the mountains would undoubtedly go Republican. But, considering that much of the growth in Washington is in the greater Seattle area (i.e. the suburbs, which are more conservative than the city itself, especially due east of Lake Washington), it is likely that any new seat would be created there -- which leads us, once again, to the question of who is drawing the district boundaries. I could guess that there would be a way of drawing new boundaries such that not only would a new district lean Democratic, but the never-elected-a-Democrat 8th district I live in could suddenly become a Democratic pickup. OTOH, if Republicans controlled the redistricting, not only could they make sure the new district was solidly in their camp, and the 8th remained safe for them, but they could also draw the new boundaries creatively enough that the 1st and 9th, both "swing" districts that have been narrowly Democratic for years, could tip Republican.

In other words, depending on who's doing the redistricting, what is now a 6-3 Democratic delegation could wind up anywhere from 8-2 Democratic to a 5-5 split. And we won't have any clue about how it is likely to wind up for at least four or five years. I'm not holding my breath.

[stevedeshazer]

4. Thanks for your optimism.

I'm holding my breath. For "modified rapture".

Sheesh.

[AJH032]

9. boundaries won't matter

for clout in presidential elections since the electoral college works as a "winner take all" system. As long as the state is more Dem than Rep, the Dem gets all the electoral votes. Boundary drawing only matters for congress.

[madville]

5. The same thing is likely in the Southeast

Florida and Georgia are projected to pick up a seat or two after 2010 also. States like NY and MA have been experiencing stagnant population growth since 2000, if any at all. Florida and Georgia have had growth in the double digits percentage wise since 2000 while some of the Northeastern states have been <5%.. There are several other "red" states that may pick up seats as well, like Texas for example. Colorado may also pick up one I remember reading. Those seats will have to come from somewhere, weakening another state's influence a little bit. Just have to focus more attention to those areas when they get more control.

[stevedeshazer]

6. Good point, thanks for making it

In the end, it's a zero sum game.

In other words, the parties are competing for the biggest piece of the congressional/electoral pie.

It all comes from somewhere....

[fuzzyball]

7. Also gaining are Texas, Arizona & Florida and other southern states.

Biggest loser is the north-east. So you decide.

[stevedeshazer]

8. Why the snotty response?

Decide yourself.

[fuzzyball]

10. Not trying to be snooty, just putting forward some facts and reality check