2008 Electoral Vote Prediction:

[mb7588a]

Democratic Locks: 250
Wa - 11
Or - 7
Ca - 55
Mn - 10
Wi - 10
Il - 21
Mi - 17
Oh - 20 (you betcha)
Pa - 21
Hi - 4
Dc - 3
Md - 10
Ny - 31
Ct - 7
Ri - 4
Ma - 12
Vt - 3
Me - 4

Democratic Leaners: 45
CO - 9
Mt - 3
Ia - 7
Va - 13
Nh - 4
La - 9 (with enough ads, trust me.)


Democratic Maybes 68
Az - 10
Nc - 15
Mo- 11
Nm - 5
Fl - 27


It takes 270 to win. The easiest route to 270 after the 250 guarantee is:
Dem. Locks + Virginia (13) + Colorado (9) = 272
or
Dem. Locks + Virginia (13) + Louisiana (9) = 272
or
Dem. Locks + Virginia + Iowa (7) = 270
or
Dem. Locks + Virginia + New Hampshire (4) + Montana (3) = 270


Any non-Hillary (From a political science standpoint, she has baggage) Democrat will win in a landslide (300+ electoral votes). Only McCain makes it slightly more difficult for a Dem. in Colorado, Arizona, Virginia and a few other key 2008 swing states.

[citygal]

1. No republican president has EVER won without

capturing Ohio. Therefore, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation...I think it is blue for at least the next election cycle. (At least it now has a Democratic SOS.)

[illinoisprogressive]

2. The reason for the non Hillary is that most dems will stay home if it's her

[mb7588a]

3. Agreed, her negatives are too high,

and that's a liability to turnout. That's a sad but true, basic campaign/election rule.

[SaveElmer]

21. An assumption supported by what?

DU sentiment?

[BlueStateModerate]

4. Ohio a lock?

That seems to be kind of a stretch.

[Eurobabe]

9. Ohio is purple turning blue, but there are still ALOT of red pockets

that could turn out to bite us in the ass in '08. I know, I lived in a red pocket, I escaped that hell in May. :)

[blm]

15. No more GOP control of all the voting machines in Ohio. BIG difference.

Dean has worked to REBUILD Ohio's collapsed party infrastructure. Ohio is strong for us now, as it would have been in 2004 if Terry McAuliffe had actually done his job and secured the election process after 2000 as he had promised.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. Louisiana will be bright red in 2008

Sorry but that's the way it is. Despite the fact that the deadly incompetence came from Bush, Blanco and Nagin are Democrats and both have done a terrible job in the aftermath. Not only that but the people who were actually effected by the storm don't live here anymore for the most part.

And Ohio and Pennsylvania are by no means democratic locks.

[citygal]

6. The only thing encouraging about Ohio is that

Blackwell is no longer SOS and cannot "fix" the election. Not to bring up old news, but I still think Kerry won Ohio.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. No argument there, Ohio will at least be fair this time and that is a huge help

Not to mention that Strickland and Brown will certainly be able to help turn out the vote for our nominee.

[bearfan454]

12. Plus Mary Landrieu usually votes with the pukes

It's sort of like a female Lieberman.

[Hippo_Tron]

13. I've interned for Senator Landrieu, her job is not easy

Lieberman is from a solid blue state and really has no excuse for what he does, especially since he's an active warmonger and even more supportive of Bush than some Republicans.

Landrieu has to get elected a far more complicated state that is becoming more and more red by the day. You would not believe the number of phone calls we got asking us to vote for the flag burning and gay marriage amendments and to vote to repeal the "death tax". The estate tax was the saddest part because people living in FEMA trailers actually thought that they would have to pay it.

[rollin74]

8. What about NV

In my opinion, Democrats have a better chance of carrying Nevada than any of your "Democratic Leaners" (with the possible exception of Iowa)

I also have to agree that PA and OH cannot be considered locks

[Eurobabe]

10. PA will continue to go blue. Too much dissent in the

Philly suburbs with Bushler since 2004.

[rep the dems]

16. I agree. We've voted Democratic 5 elections in a row I believe,

and my traditionally conservative district recently elected Patrick Murphy as our Representative. Rendell will likely campaign for the Democratic nominee, and everyone loves Rendell. I'm very confident we'll win PA in '08.

[MasterDarkNinja]

11. As a PA resident I can say that PA is definitely not a lock yet

PA has definitely been turning bluer lately, but it's not a lock yet. We may have won the senate and governor race by huge majories, but take a closer look at those elections.

In the senate we had Rick Santorum to oust, who was an extreme conservative and big Bush supporter, plus we ran a moderate that appealed to independent voters and couldn't be painted as too liberal for PA.

In the governor election Ed Rendell had done a decent job and was fairly popular among PA residents. Plus the antiBush tide that election certainly helped him. His opponent wasn't all that great either, and ran weaker ads compared to Rendell's.

I'd put PA under the leaning democratic catagory, since we've gone blue for the last 4 presidential elections.

[vireo]

14. Wisconsin not a lock, either

It's always in play. MN is only slightly more reliable.

I would call NM a leaner, but not VA, which hasn't gone to the Democrat since 1964. LA is also quite a longshot.

[Daylin Byak]

17. Here are my predictions

Divided in the sections of, good chance and in play

Good chance of winning

-washington
-oregon
-california
-Colorado
-Minnesota
-Wisconsin
-Illinois
-Michigan
-Pennsylvania
-New York
-Maine
-Vermont
-New Hampshire
-Massachusetts
-Rhode Island
-Connecticut
-Delaware
-New Jersey
-Maryland

States that could be in play for Democrats if we play our cards right

-New Mexico
-Nevada
-Iowa
-Ohio
-Arkansas
-West Virginia
-Virginia

Oh by the way since were on '08 predictions, I might as well make my predictions for the Senate since i'm here, here goes.

The Democrats will lost Louisiana hands down, Mary Landrieu will by loking for a new job come January of 2009. Out of all the Republican seats up for re-election the Dems have a good shot of picking up four seats which will be Colorado, Oregon, Maine and Minnesota and with the right candidates we could North Carolina is Mike Easley runs and Virginia if John Warner retires(then Mark Warner can enter the race and be the frontrunner)

Comments?

[jcrew2001]

18. Warner or Webb for VP

I think if Warner or WEbb were the VP, we would win Virginia.

[OHdem10]

19. This is awfully early to be predicting the

election. Chris M. had a guest from California who blatantly
stated. " McCain can beat Hillary in California." "There are a
lot of Democrats who will vote for McCain." I know not that
much about California, but I found this interesting information.

[BlueIris]

20. Hmmm. I'm getting a shaky feeling about California, actually.

But it's good to know you're confident.