Cowgirl's Morning Line--Democrats January 17 edition

[bklyncowgirl]

A few events, a few odds changed. Here we go.

2008 DEMOCRATIC DERBY

SOUTHERN MAN (John Edwards) 115 15-1
Smooth running, lightly raced, colt finished strongly in the 2004 Democratic Derby. Teamed as entry with Boston Brahmin in Presidential Plate showed speed and agility but little punch. Away from the races since 04 has been keeping up with sparkling press workouts and public appearances. Big labor support--aiming for the Lou Dobbs crowd. Tried to make a nice entry splash but lost airtime to botched Saddam hanging. Fiesty speech at NYC MLK event shows he's not afraid of playing in both First Lady and Golden Boy's racetracks.

Bottom Line: Plenty of talent but light in experience. May be out-glamored by Golden Boy (Obama) No change in odds Southern man.

WHODAT (Tom Vilsack) 110 60-1
Gets home track advantage in Iowa but little known anywhere else. Runs to the center.

Bottom Line: May be in at the end with conservative and centrist support if First Lady falters. No change in odds.

LITTLE BIG MAN: (Kucinich) 105 80-1
Pony sized also-ran in Democratic Derby in 04--seems a vanity entry in this one.

Bottom line: will get his points across and keep the others honest--unlikely to gain support beyond true-blue peacenik base. No change in odds this week.

FIRST LADY: (Clinton) 135 12-1
Two big wins in the New York Special shows she can run with the boys, front runner style--never been headed. First filly to make serious run at Presidential Plate. Handled by the same streetbrawling team that won the Presidential Plate with Bubba Bill in 1992. All the name recognition in the world plus a record as a Senate workhorse make her a contender. Travelled to Iraq and Afganistan, put her finger to the wind and almost got it shot off. Came out against a troop escalation and for redeployment but slowness to change position could hurt.

Bottom Line: Big early support from traditional Dems and women as well as conservative DLC types. Golden Boy (Obama) will drain support from African Americans. Will run to the right--support for war will hurt--but Bubba Bill's charisma may prevail. Odds go up slightly for her slow

BOSTON BRAHMIN: (Kerry) 140 40-1
Early favorite in 2004 Democratic Derby, got off to a slow start, but moved up through the pack and was in contention when longshot speedball, Country Doctor (Dean) stumbled badly at the head of the stretch. Held off a strong challenge from Southern Man to prevail. Narrowly lost Presidential Plate to Drugstore Cowboy (Bush) due to interference in the stretch.

Bottom Line: The old war horse is eager to give it one more try but his team's failure to claim foul after interference in 04 Presidential Plate plus recent poor workouts don't show a great deal of promise. No change in odds for Boston Brahmin

GOLDEN BOY: (Obama) 120 15-1
Talented, lightly raced midwestern colt won Illinois Special against light opposition but came up through the ranks in tough Chicago scene making him no stranger to political infighting. Serious speed and agility. Would be first African-bred to maker serious run for the Plate. Appeals to center and left. Charisma and early opposition to the war will add to his African-American support. Stumbled a bit in Sunday workout but announcement generated the sort of excitement he wanted. No change in odds for Golden Boy.

Bottom Line: Inexperienced, may have hidden weaknesses but a real talent to be reckoned with.

TALKSHOWJOE: (Biden) 130 70-1
Experienced performer knows foreign policy and has been around the track. No real natural following but has some agility. Old plagerism charge will haunt. Feisty performance questioning African Queen (Condi) raised his profile a bit.

Bottom Line: Going through the motions--not much chance. Odds drop to 70-1 but there's still a long way to go.

SENOR AMBASSADOR (Richardson) 120 20-1
Has all the credentials but little known outside of southwest. Hispanic background gives him a natural base. Fake claim that he was scouted by major league team could hurt. Centrist who hasn't really offended the antiwar crowd.

Bottom Line: Could be in a position to move up if First Lady or Golden Boy falters. One to watch. A little real world diplomacy hammering out a settlement in Darfur gives him new foreign policy street cred. Odds drop to 20-1.

THE GENERAL: (Clark) 125 30-1
Old war horse turned race horse made debut in 04 with mixed results. Experienced in military and foreign policy. Early opposition to Iraq war gets him a devoted netroots support.

Bottom Line: Could improve off of last effort. One to watch. A flurry of media appearances this week may help. No change in odds for the General.

WOODMAN: (Gore) 135 8-1
Despite poor ride, prevailed in a close finish over Drugstore Cowboy (Bush)in 2000 Presidential Plate but taken down by Stewards on technicality in controversial decision. Most experienced all around potential contender. Performed well as running mate with Bubba Bill in '92 and '96. Has staying power, a grinder not a speed ball though recent workouts show a surprising amount of new found quickness and agility. Gets support from anti-war and environmental types though many don't like him based on '00 image. Old views on trade could hurt him with labor.

Bottom Line: Connections say he's not running but keeps the stall door open just a crack. If he gets in, moves right to front of pack. If he can hold onto that new passionate image he could win it all. Rumors flying about his status right now.

Next Up--The Republicans