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a statewide race in Louisiana, considering its current political leanings. Consider some of the other high-profile Dems in the state. Governor Blanco is one of the most conservative Democratic politicians in office, and is still pretty unpopular in the state (though not, tellingly, because of her conservatism.) Ex-Senator Breaux is probably the most popular Democrat in Louisiana and he was more conservative than Landrieu, and more conservative than any current Democratic Senator with the possible exception of Ben Nelson (NE).
Still, I do agree that on some issues Landrieu could afford to be more liberal and it would actually be to her advantage. That may seem ridiculous considering how the state is trending more and more "red" with the heavy Democratic-voting population losses from her base of New Orleans. But Louisiana politics are pretty weird. There are strong strains of both reactionary social conservatism and economic populism. There have been times when I think Landrieu has missed opportunities to vote in the interests of the state on economic issues because she feared retaliation, and it just seemed like a misreading to me. I believe Louisiana will support populist yet socially conservative Democrats, and I think Landrieu complicates her status in the state by behaving like more of a DLC Democrat (not populist or "liberal" enough on economic issues yet while being perhaps the most socially liberal Democrat Louisiana has ever had- I could be wrong about the latter but I have heard her described as such a handful of times) when Louisiana isn't quite typical of a "DLC" state.
However, Louisiana did support Clinton twice, and elected Landrieu for the first time the same year that they re-elected Clinton. Perhaps this is where Landrieu is taking her cues from. The thing is, I think turning out the Democrats to support her in 2008 is crucial to her being re-elected, and I don't think she is doing enough at this point to inspire Democrats and independents who don't often vote, especially African-Americans to support her. Lack of enthusiasm from African-Americans was what forced her into a run-off in '02; the one in which she narrowly prevailed against Suzanne "Olive Oyl" Terrell. Conventional wisdom may be that it would be suicide for Landrieu to play up any of her more Democratic stances due to the Louisiana's red shift and population losses in blue areaes, but I think this may be the only way that she will survive. I don't mean that she should become ultra-liberal on issues that wouldn't begin to play in Louisiana, but I happen to believe that coming out against an unpopular (even in Louisiana) President's unpopular war is not a suicidal stance to take. In fact, I think it could only help. Louisiana has enough of a populist streak that I believe an anti-war stance (if framed in the right manner) would only work in her favor. I don't think she will win by being a slightly less right-wing right-winger, but by being a moderate Democrat with enough of a populist streak to inspire the Democratic base without turning off too many of the conservative Democrats.
Sure, I could be totally off, but I just think it's the best chance Landrieu has. Think of some of the recent races in the south where the Dems ran conservative candidates (OK in '04, TN in '06 come to mind) who in some instances tried to out-Republican the Republicans and still didn't manage to make much of a difference. (Actually, Harold Ford did quite well and I'm not really trying to sell him short; I just wondered at times if he was running further to the right than he needed to- the same thing I often wonder about Landrieu. The difference is, I think Louisiana has a bit more of a built-in Democratic base than either of those states (especially Oklahoma) that simply needs to be encouraged to turn out.
Another thing that could work to Landrieu's advantage is that, despite gains in recent years, I'm not sure just who the prominent Republicans are who will have such a great shot at knocking her off. There's the obnoxious Bobby Jindal, but he will likely be running against Blanco (and, from the looks of things at this point, prevailing) but otherwise, just who do the Repugs have who is likely to move up? Landrieu might be helped by the lack of any strong competitors, even with so many other things working against her. Then again, David Vitter was (and still is) a pretty worthless dude and he managed to win his Senate seat without even a run-off; so perhaps the whole "trending red" aspect is a bigger deal than I'm making it out to be. (Vitter did, however, have that (at that time) popular "Decider" at the top of the ticket to work in his favor, and it was an open seat; who the Repugs and Dems run for President will obviously have a substantial effect on Landrieu's prospects.)
Anyway, I guess I just got rambling on here... The thing is, I guess I give Landrieu more credit than a lot of people because I think it's very important to take into consideration just what state she's representing. Yes, I'm often disappointed in her because I'm personally much more liberal than the way she votes (I get the feeling she herself is substantially more liberal than the way she votes sometimes!) I do think she makes some tactical errors at times, and errs on the side of supporting Shrub and the 'pugs more than she necessarily needs to. Then again, she may know her state better than I do. It just puzzles me if Louisiana really has gone from being the swing state it was in the late '90's to being a new dark-red clone of Mississippi. But you never can tell...
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