Top Ten Senate seats most likely to change party in '08: Early Democratic advantage

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Senate Dems Hold Early Advantage

....the races are listed alphabetically by state....

* Colorado: Allard's announcement jumps this race up to the top of Democrats' opportunity list. Despite the chatter about a candidacy by Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Rep. Mark Udall should have the Democratic field to himself. For Republicans, former Rep. Scott McInnis is in the race, and his former House colleague, Bob Schaffer, is actively considering it. If those two men comprise the top tier of GOP primary candidates, expect a nasty fight between fiscal conservatives (McInnis) and social conservatives (Schaffer) within the Colorado Republican Party. In 2004 that battle was won by the fiscal conservatives in the form of beer baron Pete Coors, who ran a less-than-stellar (and ultimately unsuccessful) general election race against Sen. Ken Salazar (D). Coors's opponent in that primary was none other than Bob Schaffer. Will Republicans reconsider and give him a shot to hold Allard's seat?

* Louisiana: One of the oldest adages in politics is that you don't beat something with nothing. At the moment, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is the something and Republicans are the nothing. Landrieu, who hasn't topped 52 percent in either of her Senate races, is already running hard; she's raised $1.8 million since her reelection in 2002 and ended October with $725,000 in the bank. No Republican seems particularly keen on stepping up to challenge Landrieu; Rep. Jim McCrery took his name out of contention this week. The most often mentioned names are Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Reps. Richard Baker and Charles Boustany, and state Treasurer John Kennedy (who is currently a Democrat). Given President Bush's 57 percent showing in the state in 2004 and the massive displacement of the African American community following Hurricane Katrina, it's incumbent upon national Republicans to seriously contest this race. But the "who" remains the biggest question.

* Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) knows that standing by President Bush when it comes to the war in Iraq isn't a sound strategy for a Northeastern Republican. She has said firmly and repeatedly that she opposes sending any more troops in Iraq. While Collins's positioning on the issue isn't likely to keep Democrats from attacking her ties to Bush, it does insulate her to an extent. Rep. Tom Allen is the assumed Democratic nominee, although rumors continue to persist that Allen may decide serving in the House majority is more enjoyable than running a 50-50 campaign (at best) against a tough incumbent. If Allen decides not to run, Democrats' chances for a pick-up would drop considerably.

* Minnesota: The news that comedian Al Franken has been reaching out to Democrats in the state's congressional delegation should warm the hearts of Republicans hoping to reelect Sen. Norm Coleman (R) in 2008. Franken is clearly serious about the race, but given his controversial profile and lack of political experience it's hard to imagine he could unseat a politician as skilled as Coleman. The problem for Senate Democrats is that because of Franken's high name identification, he'd be hard to beat in a primary. If Franken runs, Democrats' best option might be Mike Ciresi, a wealthy trial lawyer who could use his deep pockets to buy the name ID necessary to compete against Franken....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/01/the_line_senate_dems_hold_earl.html#more

[Tatiana]

1. I think our chances are very good in Maine and Minnesota.

I think in the case of Susan Collins, she's a moderate, but like Chafee, could be replaced with a moderate Dem. If Franken decides to run in Minnesota, barring some catastrophe, I think he'd get elected.

[cyclezealot]

2. Like to see some polls of a Franken/Coleman race.

Franken has plenty of political experience. Nothing controversal about Franken except he can be a Repuke attack dog. That would get my vote. Coleman experienced. His crediability is zero.