Hillary Is In, but She Won't Win

[pstans]

Saturday morning Hillary took the first step by announcing she has filed the necessary paperwork. Clinton will have an experienced team of advisors and great connections for fundraising. However, she has been in the spotlight for a long time now and the majority of people already have their opinions formed on her. You know what they say about first impressions.

I see her candidacy being similar to Jim Nussle's run for Governor here in Iowa in 2006. Nussle was known around Iowa. In all of the polls leading up to the race, Nussle had trouble getting higher than in the low 40's. Nussle lost the race with 44% of the vote.

In a Washington Post - ABC poll released on Saturday, Hillary leads all Democratic candidates nationwide with 41%. Obama comes in at 17%, Edwards at 11%, Gore at 10%, and Kerry at 8%. Hillary again is in the low 40's. I get the felling that Obama is taking some of Edwards and Gore support and vice versa. My top 3 candidates right now would be Obama, Edwards, and Gore and I know a lot of people who like those 3 better than Hillary. If you add up their totals, you come up with 38%, which is pretty much a tie with Hillary.

In Iowa, Hillary will have a hard time appealing to progressives (which will go towards Edwards and Kucinich and maybe Obama) and will have a hard time out centristing fellow DLC'er Tom Vilsack. She has yet to make a trip to Iowa, so she might not even campaign here. If she does campaign here, I don't see Hillary getting higher than 3rd.

Cross posted on my local Iowa blog, Century of the Common Iowan

[BobRossi]

1. Repukes shoe in if she get's nomination.

The 2008 election is the Dem's for the taking, unless Hil get's the nod. Here is why: There are alot of independents and repubs that will either vote for ABH in '08. The Dems can kiss all their gains good bye if they bet on Hillary.

[OKNancy]

3. Wanna' bet?

I won't support her in the primary, but she will win. Don't underestimate her and don't underestimate the Republicans stupidity. They have nothing if Iraq is still the number one issue. We could run a peanut butter sandwich and win this one.

[papau]

9. I agree - she will win :-) n/t

n/t

[Tellurian]

16. Yes, I have to agree..She will WIN! nm

[pstans]

11. She is known to independpent voters

so it depends who the Republicans nominate. I think Guiliani would beat her easily.

[sendero]

20. She will have nothing either..

... since up until recently she was a consistent and vocal supporter of the war.

[mtnsnake]

2. If you're basing your theory on Iowa, then you might want to think again.

I highly doubt that Democrats will ever again let a state like Iowa, which hardly represents Democrats values across the board, practically dictate who should or shouldn't be the Democratic representative for the presidency. What happened to Dean in 2004 should never happen again. People all but wrote Dean off after losing in a state that's got more of a Republican texture to it than a Democratic one. That was a shame. It won't happen again. I think Obama will lose in Iowa and hopefully still come out on top. Maybe Hillary, too, for all we know.

Iowa represents the antiquity of our system and everything that's wrong with our selection process. The very first state for Democrats ought to be a state from the Northeast or on the West Coast.

[pstans]

5. It's not Iowa, it is the media

Iowa didn't ruin Dean, the media did. A 3rd place finish in Iowa was great for Dean. The media latched on to the scream and end of story.

As for Hillary, she won't win Iowa and she won't win nationally.

[bigdarryl]

7. Saturday night live has already started doing skits on her already this can't help...

Saturday night live is defining her as a JOKE

[Tellurian]

14. What would we ever do without Bigdarryl? nm

[LiberalFighter]

4. Apples and Oranges

You are referring to Iowa's General Election
We are still in the Exploratory/Primary phase of the election

It doesn't matter what Hillary Clinton does in Iowa considering that Vilsack would be the favorite son and likely Iowa winner. It would be the deathknell for Vilsack to lose Iowa.

Harkin won Iowa in 1992 and he was supported by many of us activists in the UAW.

The Super Tuesday Primaries will be the determinative indicator. That will require a good organization because it involves more states having their primary on the same date.

The numbers at this point don't mean anything at this time until we are at or near the 2008 Election season. In the meantime, any candidate will need to take advantage of the circuit to get themselves out in front of the local party activists. Mainly, the state conventions if any this year and other state-wide events such as Jefferson Jackson Dinners.

[pstans]

6. Vilsack isn't a shoe in here

People consider him a good Governor, but not a great one.

[pstans]

8. Hillary is what she is

People know her and she won't be able to change people's opinions.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

10. Hillary's war: 24 U.S. Troops Die in Single Day in Iraq

[SaveElmer]

12. You are half right....nt

[Clark2008]

13. Edwards was a DLCer.

The only reason he isn't now is because one has to hold an office.

I still don't get all the hoopla around Edwards from DUers.

He supported the war.
He is DLC.
He co-sponsored the IWR and the Patriot Act.
He changes when it's politically expedient.

What makes him so attractive? This is so frustrating.

(And, again, I don't like him for HIM, not because of who I support. Besides, my candidate of choice may not even run, which means I'll have to go back to the drawing board in order to find a primary candidate to support. When that time comes, I'll be soliciting information.)

[pstans]

15. Harold Ford Jr. is the head of the DLC and doesn't hold an office

[Clark2008]

17. He's a paid staffer now. That's a bit different.

Unless they've changed their rules recently, only office holders could belong to the DLC. The paid staff was a bit different.

Like I said, they may have changed their guidelines, but the fact remains that Edwards was a DLC member until he was no longer a senator.

Do you have a link or some knowledge about the requirements I could take a look at? That actually might be helpful to all of us.

[pstans]

21. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack used to tbe the head of the DLC

So he held an office while he was the head of the DLC. Not sure if that changes anything in the discussion, but thought I would throw it in.

[AtomicKitten]

18. as always ...

[Eurobabe]

19. Progressives don't pick Presidents, otherwise we'd have Pres.

Kucinich.

[pstans]

22. That is part of the problem

People seem to think that we have to have a Democrat who is moderate. Too bad these moderates are viewed as weak and not standing up for their beliefs because they are moderate. We need someone who is willing to take a stand for what they believe in.