It is based on looking at a candidate, and decideing which candidates experience gives them the bes chance of beating the opposition.
The Virginia exit polls made this very cleat. It was not fear of Bush that had people, including Republicans who switched over to the Democratic party, and those Conservative Democrats who voted for Bush in the south in 2000. It is not fear. Virginians clearly stated that it is anger at the Bush administrations policies and not fear.
Voters in Tenn., Va. Worried About Jobs
Tue Feb 10, 6:27 PM ET
By The Associated Press
Who turned out for Democratic primaries Tuesday and why they voted as they did:
Live Results: VA, TN
WHO VOTED: Three-fourths of voters in the two states were 45 or older and more women than men voted in each state. About a third of the voters in Virginia were black and a fifth of the voters in Tennessee were black....
ANGER AT BUSH: More than eight in 10 voters in both Tennessee and Virginia said they were either angry or dissatisfied with President Bush (news - web sites).
WAR IN IRAQ: Just over two-thirds of the voters in Tennessee and Virginia said they disapprove of the war in Iraq (news - web sites)
TOP ISSUES: The big issues in Tennessee and Virginia were the economy and jobs, picked by almost four in 10 voters in Tennessee as the most important issue and a third in Virginia, followed in both states by health care and the war in Iraq.
CANDIDATE QUALITIES: The most important quality for Democratic primary voters in Tennessee and Virginia was having a candidate who can defeat Bush, picked by almost three in 10. Other important qualities for Tennessee and Virginia voters were having a candidate who stands up for what he believes and a candidate who cares about people like them.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=3&u=/ap/20040210/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_exit_polls_glance&sid=96378798Most of the articles coming out of the last two primaries cite {b]anger at Bush and his adminstration for their coming out against Bush, not fear.
And the reasons that they chose who they chose was having a candidate who they beleive can beat Bush based on experience, not ideology.
Poll: Angry Va. Voters Vote for Kerry
Tue Feb 10, 9:10 PM ET
By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) tapped into voter anger and dissatisfaction with President Bush (news - web sites) in Virginia and Tennessee on Tuesday, appealing especially to those eager to win in November, according to Associated Press exit polls.
The Massachusetts senator discovered the same hunger among Southern state primary voters for victory in November and displeasure with the incumbent that he found among voters elsewhere in the country in a string of victories since the presidential contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Kerry ran very strong among those who said the most important quality for a candidate was the ability to defeat Bush — claiming three-fourths of the Virginia voters who said that quality was most important and almost two-thirds of Tennessee voters who wanted to support a general election winner.
None of his rivals were even close among those voters — about three in 10 of all Virginia voters and one-fourth of all Tennessee voters. Kerry also ran strong in both states among voters who thought experience was the top quality.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040211/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_exit_polls_3Kerry Claims Decisive Wins In Virginia and Tennessee
Wed Feb 11, 7:22 AM ET Add Top Stories - washingtonpost.com to My Yahoo!
By Dan Balz and Michael D. Shear, Washington Post Staff Writers
Voters in Virginia and Tennessee were more moderate than those in northern states but shared the anger toward Bush and opposition to the Iraq (news - web sites) war of Democratic voters elsewhere, according to National Election Pool exit polls by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.
About two in three voters yesterday said they opposed Bush's decision to go to war, and about four in five said they were angry or dissatisfied with the president.
The economy was seen as the top issue, cited by about two in five Tennessee voters and about one-third of Virginia voters. Health care was second.
Kerry won throughout Virginia, in every region and among virtually every constituency: men, women, blacks, the old, the young, rich and poor, according to interviews with voters. Almost 70 percent said they voted for their candidate because they thought he could beat Bush.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/washpost/20040211/ts_washpost/a29798_2004feb10Anger, not fear.
And a desire to run the cnadidate who they beleive will be most able to beat Bush, and who has the most experience to follow through on accomplishing the things that they are most concerned about.
But 4 in five cited anger at Bushj as their reason, the largest percentage of all reasons given for opposing Bush, the economy, the next reason given was given by 2 in 5. Thourt 2 out of 3 stated that they opposed the War in Iraq, it was not cited as the top reason. After Anger at Bush, the economy, and then health care. GIven the results, the voters in these states view Kerry as the candidate most able to do something about these issues.
This anger has been the top reason cited for candidates coming out in droves aganst Bush, and for Kerry in almost every primary or caucus so far. The Reagan Democrats who started the last quarter century of vurtual Republican control of most of the government for this period seems to be reversing, and in the direction of Kerry, wh o is seem as having opposed this "Reagan Republican "trend more than any other candidate who is runnning. No one else has a clear a record of opposing this turn in politics toward the conservative. And Kerry has the best record of opposing this turn towards conservatism, which has finally proven to have been a wrong turn with its move through Reaganomics, through Newt Gingrich's Contract with America, PNAC, and ending with Bush. The futility of conservativism has finally been made clear in Bush. Again, Kerry, more than any other cnadidate running, has the clearest record of opposing these policies. In one way or another, each of the other candidates has at one time or another, embraced more of the policies engendered in this conservatism. Dean with his fiscal conservatism, and his support of the philosophy Contract with America, Kucinich, with his support of the rights ant-abortion, pro-family elements, Clark relatively clean of this, has still at times supported the policies of the prior Republican administrations. Edwards has a cleaner record, but a shorter one of opposing the Bush Administration, though this record has been very admirable, and he was one of the first in Congress to voice his opposition to the debacle in Florida, the Supreme Court decision rendering it legal . This has cost Edwards dearly in the fact that it appeared that the constituency that elected him in North Carolina turned against him from the moment he spoke loudly his anger at the decision in 2000.
Since 2000, andger, not fear has been growing, becoming more intense with every decision of the Bush Administration.
It becomes clearer with each primary, which candidate can address that anger with actions and not words. As Kerry, says. "bring it on". He has dealt with this conservative conspiracy from day one, and he has done so more consistantly and longer than any of the other candidates. And he has faced the ire of many of the same people who are shoring up Bush's conservative agenda. Rumsfeld, Cheney, Perle, and the others are not new to supporting the Republican Agenda, and attacking the Democratic Agenda, and its supporters, and Kerry has been a target of the same people who are targetting him again. And he has done so with a cool head, and done so ably.
Any Democratic candidate who wins the nommination will be targetted by these same people, and they will have all aspects of the Democratic party agenda attached to them. Kerry again, has the longest record of succesfully facing being a target, and sucessfully avoiding having it effect his political career, or his political decisions.
No other other candidate is seen by the public as being more capable of gettting around being targetted. The record on his being targetted and sucessfully beating the Republicans at that game by hitting them back where they are weakest is why Kerry is having the success in his campaign for the nomination.
Most of the other candidates are good candidates. They simply are not seen as being the most capable of beating Bush, by the broadest sectors of the population.