Would John Edwards been re-elected to the US Senate if he had run in 2004?

[Hippo_Tron]

Lets assume Edwards had not sought the Presidency and not run for VP in the general election last time. Lets say he would've just continued being a Senator. Would he have been re-elected to the US Senate in North Carolina in 2004? Discuss...

[illinoisprogressive]

1. from what I've heard from people from there, I dont' think so or it would be really tough

[benddem]

3. that's what I heard too

he was in for a rough fight.

[KingFlorez]

2. Maybe

He would have had the advantage of incumbency, but he was also in a red state in a year where a lot of Democrats lost in red states.

[harveyc]

4. Probably but ...

he could not take a chance of being defeated. It would have destroyed his chances to run for President.

Remember that Repug Sen. George Allen talking about running for President? I could hardly remember his name!

[illinoisprogressive]

5. But, the people I've seen who were angry were democrats. I think they felt

he started running the day he stepped into the senate chamber. That's what the majority have said.
There was alot of anger. they said he did not do much and forgot about them. I'm not taking sides. I'm just
saying what I have read from other people on different blogs.

[Clark2008]

32. That is exactly what I heard from family - all Dems - in NC.

[Island Blue]

6. I don't think so. Not in 2004.

People seem to forget that the mood in the country was very different in '04 than it is now. People were still very afraid (Terra Alerts, OBL videos, etc.) and there was much more support for the war. (Especially here in NC.) I think Edwards would have been toast.

[pstans]

7. I wondered this before

I even thought Edwards maybe should run for Senate in North Carolina in 2008 against Dole.

[MethuenProgressive]

8. Didn't Kerry/Edwards lose in Edward's home state big time?

[venable]

12. it is wrong to blame Edwards for the loss of NC

he wasn't sent there at all, and Kerry (who I like) is a very tough sell in a state like that (my home state).

[Catchawave]

22. Also, NC has a huge military population....

Two large bases (Lejeune and Bragg) plus vets, retirees and their dependents. I didn't think Kerry had a chance there, especially with the Viet Nam era vets.

Unfortunately, that problem (which predates the Swifties) won't go away for Kerry, should he seek another run.

[blm]

21. NC was another stolen state with many electronic voting machine 'glitches'

At the headquarters I worked at we had many Repubs come in furious at Bush and buying yardsigns. And I mean EVERY DAY.

[mnhtnbb]

26. The pre-election polls confirmed this. Kerry/Edwards pulled within 5 %

(basically the margin of error) of Bush the week before the election.
Then, lo and behold, the % spread came out, almost exactly, to the same spread between Bush and Gore in 2000. Fishy. Very fishy. We have a Dem governor and Dem State legislature, not to speak of the home state advantage for Edwards.

The loss of votes in some machines was documented. Personally, I think there were manipulations in others.

[Catchawave]

9. Yes, according to exit polls

In the senate race, the Republicans gained the seat formerly held by John Edwards (search). If Edwards had run for reelection against Republican Richard Burr (search), it appears Edwards would have held on to his seat by a 53 percent — 47 percent margin. Seven percent of those voters that would have voted for Edwards voted for Burr.

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137521,00.html

[NV1962]

10. Dunno... Thing is, I don't think it's very relevant today.

What if Kerry had won? What if...

Little point in playing "what if" games with the past. I mean this: I don't see how those help while exploring the path ahead. One thing is to extract lessons from the past, but those are drawn for "real" history, not imaginary projections.

Not that I'm "against" this type of hypothetical exercises - it's just that I don't see much of a practical purpose.

[Lady President]

11. Uncertain

From my understanding it would have been a tough race. Considering that the MOE in every 2004 poll swung to the right, he probably would have lost. (I'll spare everyone my ramblings about how it's impossible that every poll in 2004 was wrong.)

But, that was 2004. If his senate race would have been in 2006, I think he would have won by a large margin. I also think that he could carry North Carolina in 2008. Even though it was only two years ago, the political climate has changed so much that this question has become moot.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. Good points

[citizen snips]

27. I agree

[venable]

33. I think you're right

let's hope so

[MS Liberal]

13. Hell No

[KoKo]

15. If he hadn't run for President he would have won his seat back

Many NClinians turned on him because he co-sponsered the Iraq Resolution with Lieberman. Other's felt he started running for President just after winning the Senate race.

Edwards was popular with Dems before Iraq and won becaue folks were sick of the Jesse Helms clone Lauch (Pig Farm Agribusiness) Faircloth. If Edwards hadn't been talked into giving up his seat so that a Clinton ally (Erskine Bowles) could run (who lost) we wouldn't be stuck with that "Big Drug Company" run Burr who is a toad but the Dentists and Doctors in NC loved him because he was for tort reform and they support anyone who urges government to limit malpractice suits and loves big Pharma. Burr is also very conservative which the RW Fundies love. So, we got stuck with two conservatives: Dole and Burr. Not reflective of the population of NC at this time....but what we are stuck with.

[venable]

19. NC is very red

outside of Orange Country. what evidence is there to the contrary?

[citizen snips]

25. There are only a couple of blue spots on the NC map

Chapel Hill and Asheville.

[mnhtnbb]

28. NC is trending blue. The demographics are changing. See the link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3069482&mesg_id=3069482

[citizen snips]

29. I hope so

We can take the governors mansion but we have been red in the senate for such a long time.

[abburdlen]

30. We have a democratic Gov.

As well as a democratic majority in the State Senate and House.
I won't deny NC leans further right than many states but I wouldn't say we're very red

[Renew Deal]

16. No, and that's why he didn't run.

Good forsight by Edwards.

[venable]

20. wrong on both counts, I believe

well, MOST LIKELY wrong on whether he would have won or not....nobody can know that, but most likely, as per Catchawave's post, he would have won.

and that's NOT the reason he pulled out. In his words, if he is going to run for Pres in 04, he needed to push off from the side of the pool. ie he had to commit to that.

he fully expected that if he ran for Senate, and not for Pres. he would have won his seat. His own polling, and other polling, told him that.


I don't know why people don't modify their statements, ie - "no, and that's why he didn't run".... can't it be added that this is what the poster believes, rather than stating is as fact. It is not a fact, rather it is factually wrong, at least the part about why he pullled out. It still can be a legitimate personal belief. It's just not a fact. Sorry, I woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.

[dad]

17. No

He didn't represent us; he only represented himself. His ambition to be Prez was obvious and sickening.

[marions ghost]

18. of course Edwards would've won in theory

but half of NC has auditless e-voting and the state has been rife with voter intimidation and other illegal practices directed at Democrats, so you can't be sure in hindsight. Since 2004 there have been changes made, and hopefully by 2008 things will be somewhat improved. NC has a disastrous record re. fair elections so discussions about 'could a Dem have been elected?' must factor that in.

[onenote]

23. impossible to predict, but there are reasons to think he would

Obviously, its impossible to 'know' the outcome of an election that didn't take place. But among the reasons one might think Edwards could've won, was the fact that Bowles edged Burr by 50-49 among women voters (who make up a majority of NC voters), compared to Edwards 59-43 drubbing of Faircloth among women in 1998. While there's no certainty that Edwards would have done as well among women in 2004 as 1998, its quite likely he would've done better than Bowles. WOuld it have been enough propel him to victory? Can't be certain, but it might have. (Also, Edwards captured 91 percent of the African-American vote in 1998, but Bowles dropped to 87% in 2004).

[Imagevision]

24. If Edwards ran aginst Bush in 04 I believe election fraud would still have prevailed

[Clark2008]

31. No.